After the Shanghai Masters
Roger 12165 points
Novak 11970 points
Novak 11410 points
Roger 9255 points
Let's assume the worst: that Roger wins Basel, Paris and the WTF undefeated.
Then all Nole needs to do to secure the year-end #1 is: make the semis in Paris and win 2 RR matches in London, or make the finals in Paris and win 1 RR match in London.
Of course, if he wins Paris, then he'll clinch the year-end #1 even before starting the WTF in London. That would be the best scenario: Nole would play London without pressure.
But that's assuming that Roger wins everything: Murray will play Basel, he may beat Roger there and help Nole.
This is the worst case scenario: Roger winning everything, I have the feeling Nole will do very well in Paris and in London, and will start 2013 with a healthy lead. The year-end is not mathematically clinched, but almost.
It could be the first time we have a player defending his year-end #1 successfully since 2007. AJDE NOLE!!