Poll : Wat will be Nole - Fed gap in ranking at the end of 2012 - Page 2 - MensTennisForums.com
View Poll Results: FED / NOLE GAP in 2012 FINAL RANKING
Fed + 2000 1 5.56%
Fed + 1500 0 0%
Fed + 1000 0 0%
Fed + 500 1 5.56%
Fed = Nole or a slight diff 0 0%
Nole + 500 5 27.78%
Nole + 1000 5 27.78%
Nole + 1500 1 5.56%
Nole + 2000 4 22.22%
Nole + 2000 or more 1 5.56%
Voters: 18. You may not vote on this poll

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post #16 of 40 (permalink) Old 09-28-2012, 07:58 AM
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Re: Poll : Wat will be Nole - Fed gap in ranking at the end of 2012

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Originally Posted by Yolita View Post
So far, he looks rested and ready to go, and he's doing well points-wise: he has played fewer tournaments than anybody else in the top 110 (13 only) and he's the leader of the race, with almost 1000 points ahead of No. 2 Roger (9910 to 8920), who played 16 tournaments.
Not entirely correct. Federer has played 14 regular tournaments this year. To get to 16 you have to count Davis Cup as two separate tournaments, which sounds a little strange.

That does not change the fact that playing less seems to have worked fine, after all - it is not the zero-pointers that decide the rankings, but the big points.
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post #17 of 40 (permalink) Old 09-28-2012, 04:21 PM
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Re: Poll : Wat will be Nole - Fed gap in ranking at the end of 2012

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Not entirely correct. Federer has played 14 regular tournaments this year. To get to 16 you have to count Davis Cup as two separate tournaments, which sounds a little strange.

That does not change the fact that playing less seems to have worked fine, after all - it is not the zero-pointers that decide the rankings, but the big points.
I'm basing my statement on the ATP Race, as published on the official ATP Page

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx

On the right-hand column you get the number of tournaments played by each player: Novak 13, Roger 16, Rafa 15, Andy 16, David 19, Delpo 17, Tomas 19, Jo 20, etc.

If you click on Federer's ranking points (the number 8920), you'll get the breakdown. Davis Cup is not counted twice. But he's carrying a 0-pointer from Canada.

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post #18 of 40 (permalink) Old 09-28-2012, 05:32 PM
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Re: Poll : Wat will be Nole - Fed gap in ranking at the end of 2012

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Originally Posted by Yolita View Post
I'm basing my statement on the ATP Race, as published on the official ATP Page

http://www.atpworldtour.com/Rankings/YTD-Singles.aspx

On the right-hand column you get the number of tournaments played by each player: Novak 13, Roger 16, Rafa 15, Andy 16, David 19, Delpo 17, Tomas 19, Jo 20, etc.

If you click on Federer's ranking points (the number 8920), you'll get the breakdown. Davis Cup is not counted twice. But he's carrying a 0-pointer from Canada.
Well, ATP counts mandatory tournaments whether you play or not. When talking about how much the players have actually played, I do not go by ATP numbers as they are misleading. Federer did not expend any energy on Toronto. ATP will also count Beijing and Basel for Nole whether or not he plays, as he needs both to reach his obligatory four ATP 500s. So if he should not play again until Paris his 13 will then be 16 - according to ATP (of course, I am not suggesting he will do such a thing). Better to use correct numbers if you ask me
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post #19 of 40 (permalink) Old 09-28-2012, 10:07 PM
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Re: Poll : Wat will be Nole - Fed gap in ranking at the end of 2012

Sorry...I thought the ATP had the correct numbers.

My argument to J99 is that Nole is more efficient than any other player, by quite a lot. And I think the argument still stands.

So let's count just the events where they played and earned points towards their total.

Federer played 15 events, earning a total of 8920 points. Novak played 13 events, earning a total of 9910 points.

That's an average of 594.6 points per event for Roger and 762.3 points per event for Novak. So Novak earned on average 28.2% more points than Roger per event, and Roger is the #2 in the race. The rest of the players are much less efficient.

Given these numbers, it makes sense for Nole to play fewer tournaments than the rest of the field...He can always change his mind if he loses early in Beijing or Shanghai.

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post #20 of 40 (permalink) Old 09-29-2012, 08:43 AM
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Re: Poll : Wat will be Nole - Fed gap in ranking at the end of 2012

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Originally Posted by Yolita View Post
Sorry...I thought the ATP had the correct numbers.

My argument to J99 is that Nole is more efficient than any other player, by quite a lot. And I think the argument still stands.

So let's count just the events where they played and earned points towards their total.

Federer played 15 events, earning a total of 8920 points. Novak played 13 events, earning a total of 9910 points.

That's an average of 594.6 points per event for Roger and 762.3 points per event for Novak. So Novak earned on average 28.2% more points than Roger per event, and Roger is the #2 in the race. The rest of the players are much less efficient.

Given these numbers, it makes sense for Nole to play fewer tournaments than the rest of the field...He can always change his mind if he loses early in Beijing or Shanghai.
Don't apologize, I know ATP makes this difficult for us, that's why I try to clear things up a little on occasion. You are far from the only one to have been mislead about this.

And I certainly support your conclusion. Novak has a better average point score this year than anyone else. By a fairly solid margin. In fact, his average is so good it is bound to drop during the Asian swing. Winning both tournaments will "only" give him 1500 points, average of 750, which is below the 762,3 he has now....rather amazing.
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post #21 of 40 (permalink) Old 09-29-2012, 10:43 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Poll : Wat will be Nole - Fed gap in ranking at the end of 2012

For sure Fed playing "250" and "500" make his average score down but also Nole is very consistent in GS for more than 2 years

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post #22 of 40 (permalink) Old 09-30-2012, 07:29 AM
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Re: Poll : Wat will be Nole - Fed gap in ranking at the end of 2012

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For sure Fed playing "250" and "500" make his average score down but also Nole is very consistent in GS for more than 2 years
That is of course correct. It is possible to make another calculation, percentage of maximum points. Nole's 13 tournaments potentially have 16250 points, so 9910 represents 61%. Fed's tournaments have a potential of 15500 points, so his 8920 represents 57,5%. Here we see it is closer, but Nole still ahead. On this statistic Rafa also does well, 6840 from 12000 is 57%, only inches behind Federer. Noone else is close.
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post #23 of 40 (permalink) Old 10-01-2012, 02:21 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Poll : Wat will be Nole - Fed gap in ranking at the end of 2012

I am a bit surprised about Fed decision to commit in Shangaļ.

Travel there and back if he is really exhausted can fuck his fitness for the indoor swing.

Then I realized there is a trick he can make : not forfeiting BEFORE the draw so that Andy and Novak could match in polu-final and Novak could fail before the bigger points. Not very fair-play but smart in the Race.

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post #24 of 40 (permalink) Old 10-02-2012, 02:07 AM
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Re: Poll : Wat will be Nole - Fed gap in ranking at the end of 2012

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Originally Posted by Crvena Zvezda View Post
I am a bit surprised about Fed decision to commit in Shangaļ.

Travel there and back if he is really exhausted can fuck his fitness for the indoor swing.

Then I realized there is a trick he can make : not forfeiting BEFORE the draw so that Andy and Novak could match in polu-final and Novak could fail before the bigger points. Not very fair-play but smart in the Race.
Even I didn't think of that!

But we don't know: he may play there after all.

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post #25 of 40 (permalink) Old 10-02-2012, 07:03 PM
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Re: Poll : Wat will be Nole - Fed gap in ranking at the end of 2012

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Originally Posted by Crvena Zvezda View Post
I am a bit surprised about Fed decision to commit in Shangaļ.

Travel there and back if he is really exhausted can fuck his fitness for the indoor swing.

Then I realized there is a trick he can make : not forfeiting BEFORE the draw so that Andy and Novak could match in polu-final and Novak could fail before the bigger points. Not very fair-play but smart in the Race.
Do you mean he will pull out of maybe Basel? But just before the tournament start?
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post #26 of 40 (permalink) Old 10-02-2012, 09:58 PM
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Re: Poll : Wat will be Nole - Fed gap in ranking at the end of 2012

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Do you mean he will pull out of maybe Basel? But just before the tournament start?
No, she means pulling out of Shanghai, but after the draw has been made, so that maybe Murray and Djokovic are drawn in the same half...Murray has won Shanghai twice, so he's the favourite and Nole would only get 360 points.

If Roger pulls out before the draw is made, Nole and Andy will be the top seeds, so they cannot meet before the final, so Nole will be more likely to earn 600 points.

To be honest, I think Roger will play Shanghai, I think he really wants the year-end #1, to tie Sampras record of ending 6 years as #1.

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post #27 of 40 (permalink) Old 10-07-2012, 07:35 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Poll : Wat will be Nole - Fed gap in ranking at the end of 2012

Nole is today 1515 points ahead !!!

To be 2000 points ahead at the end of 2012, Fed need now to make 3490 points more than Nole. It is mathematically possible so no choice of the poll is void yet !!


The possible range is actually : + 2305 Fed ......+ 4835 Nole on Thursday Oct 11th (to be updated)

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Last edited by Crvena Zvezda; 10-11-2012 at 02:33 PM.
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post #28 of 40 (permalink) Old 10-12-2012, 04:15 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Poll : Wat will be Nole - Fed gap in ranking at the end of 2012

Update after SHANGAI.

Possible range :

+ 755 Fed..... + 4655 Nole

Sorry Tiger Tim but your choice is already wrong !

EDIT : correcting it after reading Yolita's thread carefully.

Last edited by Crvena Zvezda; 10-17-2012 at 09:07 AM.
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post #29 of 40 (permalink) Old 10-16-2012, 09:31 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Poll : Wat will be Nole - Fed gap in ranking at the end of 2012

Now it's time to Nole to commit in Basel and forfeit AFTER drawmaking to f..k Federer half with Murray.

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post #30 of 40 (permalink) Old 10-17-2012, 08:26 PM
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Re: Poll : Wat will be Nole - Fed gap in ranking at the end of 2012

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Now it's time to Nole to commit in Basel and forfeit AFTER drawmaking to f..k Federer half with Murray.


Our boy is the fairest player out there: he wouldn't dream of doing something lke this. Wouldn't it be funny, though?

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