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post #41 of (permalink) Old 12-19-2006, 06:43 PM
bad gambler
Posts: n/a
Re: "Reverse Odds Analysis"

Originally Posted by inmeclf View Post
Hey BG,

How is this a reverse line movement? Caribsports has 71.50% on the suns, therefore IMO any (albeit small) line movement in favour of the suns is consquential of weight of money and not vagas looking to make a play on the suns?
What I am doing is not reverse line movement - reverse odds analysis is a completey different concept

Ask yourself why are the Raptors, a team who have won 3 straight given 13 points, albeit against a red hot team - Suns are not playing the Bobcats here, Raptors are a solid young team who are fresh and are on their first game of a road trip. They shouldn't be getting more then 10 points, especially when they have been an ATS covering machine on the road of late, 4-1 ATS in last 5 games on the road.

Vegas want you to play the Raptors getting what my perception is which is a very very big line in favour of the Raptors - what the public does is inconsequential to this particular theory, I just used it in an example earlier to help me explain the more broader concept of this theory.
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