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post #13 of (permalink) Old 11-25-2006, 01:52 AM
bad gambler
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Re: "Reverse Odds Analysis"

Originally Posted by Mr Flamboyant View Post
BG, this theory seems roughly based on the one you had in that recent thread about 'fading the public' ...
Not at all - the whole fading the public phenomenon still relies on you to go through the 'capping' process using some form of analysis etc but ensuring that the team you eventually back after your analysis is not a 'public' team.

As aforementioned, reverse odds analysis does away with all that analysis - Vegas has already done their detailed analysis and in most cases it is already built in within a particular line which they set.

Originally Posted by Mr Flamboyant View Post
I guess it comes down to thinking "where do the books WANT me to put my money?" .. I used to think the concept of 'trap games' was a myth .. But the examples you've used along with a couple of others in the NBA so far this season suggest it's a theory that holds true ..

Agree it's best to steer clear of the lines that appear too good to be true .. it's a no-brainer really if you can have that mentality of thinking like the bookies .. By looking at "spots" and situations teams enter games in, you can pick holes in seemingly good lines ..
Now you are getting the idea
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