Originally Posted by kundalini
Andy is an alternate for Tokyo.
But miles down the list in 13th place
Well, a lot seems to have changed in just a few weeks! Andy's schedule has been very surprising to me, particularly the decision to play Binghampton. Yet he contrived to win that tournament and then got a wild card straight into the main draw at Cincy and picked up another 35 points there.
This has all made the assumed goal of reaching the top 100 by the end of this year look very achievable. He needs to earn about 110 more points between now and then, allowing for the 36 points that will roll off his record, and a fifteen point allowance for existing scores that will be replaed by any better ones. You could look at that as three Challenger semis and a quarter-final or a win and a final.
However, entering Tokyo seems a strange way to go about this. It would cut him out of Grenoble, Mons and the Stockholm qualies. But it seems that Tokyo is much more popular this year than last so he probably won't get in. He can't play the qualies because of the Davis Cup match the week before. So presumably he will withdraw from Tokyo when he sees the entry list and stay in Europe - unless he already has a WC deal.
Whatever happens, he will still have Kolding and Aachen. As kundalini points out, there are also some high-points Challengers in November, such as Luxembourg, but I have really been hoping that he will take some time out from the weekly grind to work on his fitness and his game. To me, this would suggest playing in Grenoble, Mons, Kolding and Aachen, leaving the November Challengers in reserve in case he really needs some extra points.
I certainly think Andy has been competing in far too many tournaments lately - this is his eighth consecutive week of play. Can he seriously be considering making that nine, even if he fails to qualify for the Open, by travelling to Istanbul? That surely would be utter madness. His reported shoulder injury is a worrying development and I really hope this is not too serious or the result of overuse.
Let's hope his results this week and next make all this speculation idle - a run to the third round would give him 90 points (83 if lucky loser), including 15 from qualifying (8 if lucky loser), which would take all the pressure off him for this season.