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Oz rankings thread

19K views 118 replies 18 participants last post by  Kateoz 
#1 ·
There is a lot of (overwhelmingly positive) movement in the rankings of the Oz players at the moment, and that seems likely to continue.

In the short term there are some interesting questions such as will Tomic overtake Kyrgios in the rankings; can one or both get seeded for RG/USO; when/if Lleyton drops out of the top 100; how far up can Groth and Kokkinakis make it this year.

For the longer term, how many will there be in the top 100 at the end of the year? And what will be the order?

So I thought it might be good to have a thread to discuss the Oz lads rankings.

And to kick off the discussion, here are the current rankings for those in the top 300 plus the number of places they've jumped since the end of last year in brackets):

Kyrgios 36 (+16)
Tomic 38 (+18)
Groth 69 (+12)
Matosevic 72 (+3)
Hewitt 98 (-48)

Duckworth 104 (+23)
Kokkinakis 133 (+17)
Millman 137 (+20)
Kubler 150 (-14)
Saville 162 (+3)
Bolt 164 (+38)
Smith 193 (+7)

Mitchell 204 (+32)
Thompson 231 (+43)
Ebden 285 (-56)
Propoggia 296 (+29)
 
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#3 · (Edited)
Way down in doubles too, now no 9 for Oz. The doubles list is:

Groth, 28 (played 23 tournaments)
Peers, 32 (played 29)
Guccione, 41 (27)
Smith, 76 (23)
Junaid, 79 (35)

Hewitt, 101 (9)
Whittington, 127 (23)
Bolt, 131 (18)

Propoggia, 212 (19)
Ebden, 225 (14)
Kerr, 227 (18)
Thompson, 239 (21)
Van Peperzeel, 244 (25)
Reid, 252 (18)
Kokkinakis, 285 (8)
Hubble, 287 (12)

And for the sake of completeness and comparisons (and entertainment value!), rankings of a few selected others:

Jasika, 429 (10 played)
Matosevic, 433 (10 played)
Tomic, 434 (5)
Saville, 483 (13)
Kubler, 628 (10)
Duckworth, 833 (9)
Kyrgios, 1211 (4)
 
#5 ·
In the light of our DC doubles woes and start this week of the IW/Miami run, I thought it might be timely to start some rankings predictions speculation, focusing first on doubles.

First it is worth noting that both Groth and Gooch have a fair few challenger points (around 400) to defend over the next few months - though in reality should be able to replace them with tour level results. The bigger challenge might be for Groth in defending his 750 RG SF points. On the face of it these two could take a hit in the rankings over the next few months.

Peers by contrast has a relatively even spread of GS and tour points so at less risk of dipping badly. But no real sign likely to push up much further either, at least when paired with Murray.

The second big variable is how much they all play.

Kokkinakis for example, apart from Brisbane/AO, has only played a few challengers to date when it comes to doubles and given he is having to play qualifying to get into tournaments, isn't likely to change that until he gets into the top 100 and high enough ranked for direct entry to md. Mind you, that could happen in the next few weeks...

Kokk-Kyrgios has some obvious potential as a combo, but given Kyrgios' continuing injury woes, doubt he is likely to want to add to his workload by playing much doubles.

And Tomic's doubles capacity isn't really obvious given that he can/t seem to manage more than one volley in a row.

Hewitt is probably the strongest Oz doubles player after Groth at least on paper (if you adjust his current ranking points for number of tournaments played), and could of course start playing more doubles, but his form in recent months has been poor and no sign he is really planning on going in that direction in any case.

So my punt? Biggest movement could be from some of the up and comers with some doubles capacity like Kokkinakis, Bolt and Jasika.
 
#6 · (Edited)
And the latest rankings are out (9 March).The doubles rankings for the top group are effectively unchanged. In singles, key changes are:


. Tomic moves to number 1 for Oz at 35
. Hewitt drops out of the top 100, to 101
. Kokkinakis moves up 9 places to 124

The order for the top group is now as follows:
Tomic 35
Kyrgios 37
Groth 69
Matosevic 74
Hewitt 101
Duckworth 106
Kokkinakis 124
Millman 137

So punts for this week with IW and Chinese challengers in play?

Tomic, Groth, Matosevic and Kyrgios are all in the main draw and all in with a good chance of winning at least one round (assuming Groth pulls himself back together after that demoralising DC appearance). I'm betting King Kyrgios retakes the lead though...

Duckworth, Kokkinakis, Saville and Smith [edit: and Bolt] all playing qualifying. All might struggle though - Kokkinakis from exhaustion after that 5 setter plus jet lag from a long flight (though the exhilaration of the win/confidence effect might compensate?!); the rest on recent form.

Meanwhile in China, Millman, Thompson and Mitchell. Millman needs to get past Thompson in r2 and Fognini killer Nedovysov (or Devvarman) in the quarters, but won't meet Chung until the final.
 
#12 ·
So fun rankings battles going on at both ends of the top 100 - Tomic just jumped over Kyrgios again, now at 30. But Kyrgios can get the lead back if he beats Dimitrov...

And the Kokk now at 114, needs to make the QF to jump over Duckie. Looks to be a pretty tall order - but not altogether impossible (path is beats Monaco then winner of Ferrer/Dodig-Tomic, Baghdatis-Djokovic).
 
#13 ·
There are a few challengers that could affect the exact rankings that Duckworth and Kokkinakis et al end up with next week, but as all the Australians bar JP are now out of play I thought this was a good point to take note of some interesting results in the year to date liverankings (race) before Miami starts.

One shouldn't of course take the race rankings too seriously at this early stage of the season, but still, interesting to look at which ones might be sustained and which not.

So the big leap forwards so far are: Tomic (10); Kyrgios (26), Kokkinakis (45); Duckworth (56); Bolt (116); Barton (132); Mitchell (181); Harris (278); Bouchier (290) and Jasika (306).

Kyrgios has obviously been badly affected by injury breaks and is out for another month, but all the rest should have opportunities to advance again over the next period.

Tomic, Kokkinakis, Duckworth and Jasika are all in play at Miami though whether any of them will be up to much after this weeks efforts has to be a big question mark. Tomic and Kokkinakis though arguably need to do well - Tomic to make up for the clay season which is, shall we say, not his strength, and Kokk to get over the line!

The potential qualifiers, though, face a fairly tough road as the field is jam-packed with talent and Kokkinakis must be pretty exhausted at this point. He really really needs another wildcard, I suspect, if he is going to have a chance to get the around 30 points he needs to make it into the top 100. And after this week, it would be so disappointing if he didn't!

Those going backwards: Matosevic (102); Kubler (219); Hewitt (253); Saville (308).

Kubler and Hewitt's rankings reflect lack of play (Hewitt looks likely to make MD in Miami, but will he play???). For the other two, the season is still young, but the warning bells are obviously ringing. Matosevic and Groth are both in MD for Miami though, so another chance to build.

More or less steady: Groth (73); Millman (168); Smith (204); Thompson (225).

Got to wonder if coaching is one of the factors behind some of the rises, viz Tomic (Roche), Kokkinakis (Stoltenberg) and Barton (Masur)...
 
#14 · (Edited)
Latest rankings now out, and the biggest news is of course Mr Duckworth now officially into the top 100 at 97.

Singles

Other rankings movers of note:

Bouchier up 153 places to 619
Barton up 118 places to 382
Smith up 32 places to 163
Kokkinakis up 16 places to 108
Ebden down another 18 places to 308

The singles list for those in top 200:

Tomic 29
Kyrgios 37
Groth 69
Matosevic 76
Duckworth 97

Hewitt 107
Kokkinakis 108
Millman 137
Kubler 153
Bolt 160
Smith 163
Saville 186

Year to date (race to London) singles rankings continue to look quite entertaining - will be interesting to see how they change as the season goes on:

Tomic 12
Kyrgios 24
Kokkinakis 61
Duckworth 63
Groth 68
Matosevic 95

Doubles:

Groth: 29
Peers : 30
Guccione: 39
Junaid: 78
Smith: 79

Movers of note:

Kokkinakis: up 64 places to 223
Reid: up 28 places to 202

In terms of teams, worth noting that Peers-Murray is now 7 in the race to London.
 
#16 ·
By way of an addendum on the ranking stats this week - doesn't take many points down at the tail end of the rankings, but two aussies top the list of 'movers of the week' - Thomas Fancutt up 817 places to 1277T, and Daniel Hobart, up 784 places to 1067. Oliver Anderson, Aaron Addison and Blake Ellis also made big jumps.
 
#17 ·
Interesting to read the varied writeups of this weeks big rankings moves/performances.

Tomic fanboy Leo Schlink devotes a lot of words to Tomic's ten in the race result; mentions Duckworth and Gavrilova making into top 100, and doesn't bother mentioning anyone else!:http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/t...-in-atp-rankings/story-fnibcgxs-1227277281073

ABC focus on Tomic's real result (viz singles ranking) in top 30 but also highlight Kyrgios still no 2 (lol), plus Duckworth: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-03-...ing-career-high-ranking/6342548?section=sport

Fairfax ignore the story altogether...
 
#19 · (Edited)
To put it in perspective, only represents a rise from 1 ranking point to five for Fancutt for example. And the increase in points needed to jump up the ladder start increasing rapidly from hereon in. Still three futures match wins out of two outings for example in Fancutt's case, is a useful start. And Hobart gets extra brownie points for a win over Brydan Klein on his way to F2 SFs...
 
#20 ·
Quite a bit of interesting cat and mouse between Ben Mathias' main charges in Miami at the moment in the race to be the Aussie #4 - Duckworth qualifying means that he's leapfrogged Groth in the live rankings, and the higher ranking will go to whoever wins more than the other, or Duckworth if they're equal.

This of course does not take into account what Kokkinakis might do, or indeed if Lleyton can play good tennis for more than a 30 minute stretch...
 
#21 ·
Yes indeed Miami could potentially be Duckies moment in the sun if he can maintain the momentum - first two rounds extremely winnable, then a chance to take down Nadal!

Groth on the other hand rather gets the short straw with Zverev then Rosol if he gets through.

And at the other end of the rankings I guess we'll have to wait and see whether Tomic's teeth will hold up for a meeting with Berdych...:devil:
 
#25 ·
Next week's rankings should be big news in the Oz media I should think, with a lot of significant moves.

The good news (all figures live rankings so may change before Monday):

1. Kokkinakis into the top 100 at last - currently on 97 but worst case 99.
2. Kyrgios up to 30, with good chance he'll overtake Bernie next week in Rome unless the threat of losing his no 1 status fires him up enough (Tomic currently on 27, dropped to 16 in the race).
3. Groth looking solid in singles at least at 70.
4. Millman showing good form on clay in run up to RG qualies (currently on 132 and still going at Aix).
5. Ebden slowly clawing his way back up the rankings, currently at 236.

The bad news:
1. Matosevic currently sitting on 100, could still drop out of top 100 altogether this week
2. Saville (212) and Bolt (258) out of top 200 and not having done much clay prep seem long shots in the extreme for doing much at RGQ...
 
#28 ·
Now officially up.

Singles rankings:

Matosevic now officially out of top 100; Kokkinakis officially in; Kyrgios now in top 30. Some big crashes happening further down the rankings as well...

27 Tomic, Bernard
30 Kyrgios, Nick
71 Groth, Sam
88 Duckworth, James
98 Kokkinakis, Thanasi

101 Matosevic, Marinko
113 Hewitt, Lleyton
133 Millman, John
154 Kubler, Jason
165 Smith, John-Patrick

215 Saville, Luke
222 Mitchell, Benjamin
236 Ebden, Matthew
238 Thompson, Jordan
257 Bolt, Alex

338 Barton, Matthew
345 Propoggia, Dane
348 Van Peperzeel, Gavin
386 Jasika, Omar
409 Banes, Maverick
458 Reid, Matt

Race

Biggest changes are Ebden clawing his way back up (64 places; O'Connell up 55 places to 508)

16 Tomic, Bernard
23 Kyrgios, Nick
67 Kokkinakis, Thanasi
69 Groth, Sam
70 Duckworth, James

112 Smith, John-Patrick
164 Matosevic, Marinko
171 Barton, Matthew
175 Bolt, Alex
192 Ebden, Matthew
210 Millman, John
220 Thompson, Jordan
247 Kubler, Jason
256 Van Peperzeel, Gavin
279 Mitchell, Benjamin
284 Jasika, Omar
319 Hewitt, Lleyton
338 Bourchier, Harry
338 Propoggia, Dane
389 Harris, Andrew
394 Whittington, Andrew
408 Saville, Luke

Doubles (in top 300)

25 Peers, John
35 Groth, Sam
50 Guccione, Chris
65 Junaid, Rameez
92 Smith, John-Patrick

127 Whittington, Andrew
134 Hewitt, Lleyton
166 Bolt, Alex
204 Reid, Matt
216 Thompson, Jordan
223 Kokkinakis, Thanasi
231 Propoggia, Dane
238 Kerr, Jordan
244 Ball, Carsten
255 Ebden, Matthew
290 Van Peperzeel, Gavin
294 Hubble, Adam
 
#29 ·
Jeez Marinko... His favourite season is coming up the grass season, you would think he would atleast play some tournaments to build some points to get back intop top 100?

Luke Saville will be out of the top 300 soon his form is shocking, back to futures
 
#30 ·
Biggest changes in the rankings this week: Kokk to Oz no 4 at 83; Matosevic just hanging in there at 100.

In the race we now three men in the top 50, with Kokkinakis joining Tomic (17) and Kyrgios (24) at 47.

Most entertaining change: Kyrgios doubles, +1006 places to 192.
 
#31 · (Edited)
From Kokkinakis thread:

And with that, the rankings now almost truly reflect the current state of play accurately as Thanasi moves past Groth to become the Aussie number 3.

Bernie in front, a hair's breadth in front of the still slightly inconsistent Nick, Thanasi moving up solidly, Sam and James as tour level journeymen, Lleyton ramping up for one last try, Marinko sinking fast and John Millman trying hard to break the Top 100 before his mammoth defence effort at the end of the season.

That looks about right to me.

Probably the most pleasing aspect about Kokkinakis is this ability to claw his way of very deep trouble to win. Kyrgios did it against Seppi at the AO, too, and this can only bode well for the future.
I more or less agree that's a fair summation of the current state of play. The key issue is, how long will it stay that way given different rates of improvement we are seeing.

Personally, I will make a bold prediction (though see caveats below) - the order by the end of the year will be Kokkinakis, Kyrgios, Tomic, Groth, Duckworth, with Smith and Millman also in top 100, and Jasika not far off.

Millman v Smith

Not quite so sure about Millman - he has a lot of ground to make up, still way back in the race; in fact JP looks closer to making the jump on form this year in my view. But if he can maintain current form, may make it.

KKT

In terms of the top three, the race their current respective positions are: Tomic, 16; Kyrgios, 23; Kokkinakis, 49.

I don't think Tomic will stay that high as the year goes on, since whether due to health issues or other factors, keeps ducking the big matches. I also think there is a high risk he'll lose focus if Kyrgios (or the Kokk) jump over him rankings wise in a decisive way (and there is a good chance of one or both of them gong deep in a slam and achieving that).

Kyrgios is still very inconsistent, reflecting ongoing injury problems, consequent conditioning issues and relative lack of match experience, plus mentality issues. If and when he overcomes them, will easily jump over Tomic in my view, but until then dependent on a lot of luck. The extra days he got this time due to Kyle's walkover might give him the edge he needs against Murray for example, but if he does get past, can he recover quickly and go all the way? I'm not sure.

Kokkinakis on the other hand, is consistently improving, and fast as he puts in the hard yards on the tour. Still has a long way to go of course, and there is a big question mark over how he'll go on grass. But has demonstrated he can go deep in masters and slams...Still not sure who will be the best in the longer term, but for the near future, I'd punt on the Kokk rising!
 
#32 ·
Millman v Smith

Not quite so sure about Millman - he has a lot of ground to make up, still way back in the race; in fact JP looks closer to making the jump on form this year in my view. But if he can maintain current form, may make it.
Oh, I have no doubt John won't stay in the Top 100 if he gets there - he just has far too many points to defend from late September onwards and not enough points from the first third of this year to hedge against that. But he's really only two or three deep Challenger runs away right now, so with four places in his countable tournaments list still to fill I think he will make it if his current good form can hold. It's instructive however that he appears to be avoiding grass at all costs except Wimbledon qualies...

JP is having a good year, but he's still about 250 rankings points away from the Top 100, with another 127 still to defend this year...it's certainly not impossible that he could win another couple of Challengers and have a good US summer hardcourt swing to get there, but he might find himself about where Duckworth was at the end of 2014. Which, given his total heartbreak at the AO wildcard playoffs of late, hopefully could mean a well deserved WC coming his way.
 
#33 ·
So the last couple of weeks have been great for tennis (yes I'm a Stanimal fan!), not least for the Australians, with several players on career high rankings this week after great RG runs and a fantastic start to the grass season.

Singles

Biggest jumps were Jasika (+59 places to 324); O'Connell (+54 to 465), Saville (+37), Kokkinakis (+15), Millman (+14). Biggests falls Banes, Kelly, Mitchell, Matosevic.

1. Tomic, 24 (career high)
2. Kyrgios, 25 (career high)
3. Groth, 66 (career high)
4. Kokkinakis, 69 (career high)
5. Duckworth, 86
6. Hewitt, 112
7. Millman 118 (career high)
8. Matosevic, 122
8. Smith, 162
9. Kubler, 165
10. Saville, 183
11. Ebden, 189
12. Thompson, 254
13. Mitchell, 262
14. Bolt, 263
15. Jasika, 324 (career high)
16. Van Peperzeel, 325 (career high)
17. Barton, 336

Race

Tomic (19), Kyrgios (24), Kokkinakis (50), Groth (65), Duckworth (72).

Jasika at 242, just above Saville (251).

Doubles

Peers, 26
Guccione, 44
Groth, 58,
Junaid, 67
Smith, 98
Hewitt, 128
Whittington, 129
Bolt, 173
Kokkinakis, 177
Kyrgios, 191
Reid 200
 
#34 ·
A lot of them in really good positions. Great to see so many career high rankings, especially in the early stages of the grass season which shows a lot of promise for rankings to go up even further.

Guys with good chances to go up even further over the next month: Tomic, Groth, Kokkinakis, Hewitt, Ebden.
 
#35 · (Edited)
The rankings are still updating (at least on my system) but looks like they have corrected an error I discovered in Gavin van Peperzeel's ranking (had his An-Ning points down as R16 in fact SF) - takes him to 268.

Not a career high, but he has certainly been gong very strongly this year - clocked up 18 futures wins, and 4-2 in futures.

I for one have mostly been getting depressed by the lack of forward momentum in the group who made 100-200 last year, but lower down a number of Australians have actually been moving up quite well this year. Could well have some new contenders in the not too distant future.

EDIT: They have fixed the problem in rankings breakdown, but doesn't boost him that much. Will wait for final update.
 
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