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post #1 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-21-2010, 02:36 PM Thread Starter
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Aussie Mens Rankings Watch

Due to a few posters who like to hover around the Australian thread that don't like my posts about rankings I've decided to start a thread just because it is annoying me. Anyway I'll update the top 10 Aussie players on where their ranking will be at that given point in time and I'll update it when I want I suppose, if anyone else wants to update when I don't then I don't mind.

Name | Projected Ranking | Points Defending | Points Gained | Total Points
  1. Lleyton Hewitt | 37 | 0 | 0 | 1135
  2. Peter Luczak | 129 | 20 | 0 | 423
  3. Carsten Ball | 151 | 0 | 0 | 321
  4. Matt Ebden | 164 | 7 | 6 | 296
  5. Marinko Matosevic | 166 | 0 | 0 | 293
  6. Bernard Tomic | 219 | 0 | 0 | 224
  7. John Millman | 229 | 7 | 27 | 209
  8. Greg Jones | 229 | 0 | 0 | 208
  9. Nick Lindahl | 242 | 0 | 0 | 196
  10. Brydan Klein | 260 | 0 | 8 | 177
Special mention
Jason Kubler | 622 | 0 | 1 | 33
  • List made on September 21st 2010.
  • Due to futures taking an extra week to be added on I will take the week before into consideration (as can be seen in Klein and Millman's case).

Commentary
  • Millman has leaped over Lindahl and Jones with his efforts in Darwin last week. Needs to back up this week in Alice Springs to keep that number 7 spot in Australia.
  • Matt Ebden looking to gain some points now before the 89 points he has to defend over November/December.
  • Kubler takes out the 7th seed in Spain and looks a fairly strong chance to make quarters.

Last edited by Matchu; 09-21-2010 at 03:18 PM.
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post #2 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-21-2010, 09:58 PM
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Re: Aussie Mens Rankings Watch

I like the idea, always enjoyed your insights on the other individual player links
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post #3 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-21-2010, 10:58 PM
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Re: Aussie Mens Rankings Watch

We need those guys around 150-250 to step up and break into the top 100. Some of those guys have been stagnant around their ranking for years and seem to be going nowhere.
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post #4 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-22-2010, 01:49 AM
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Re: Aussie Mens Rankings Watch

All the players from Ball (3) to Klein (10) are quite young so are still good chances (varying of course, with Tomic the highest) of becomming tour level players. Luczak first became top 100 at almost 27 years old and it has become even tougher since then.

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post #5 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-22-2010, 09:12 PM
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Re: Aussie Mens Rankings Watch

So which one of these guys will break top 100 besides Hewitt who needs to retire.Really Tomic is the only possible player to do that, the rest Australia will have to put up with for a long time and be stuck in the Davis Cup Wilderness in a group that includes New Zealand.These guys are journeyman at the best and to be honest dont have the goods to be sucesfull on the World Stage.Hopefully I am wrong but me thinks I am on the money!
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post #6 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-22-2010, 09:45 PM
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Re: Aussie Mens Rankings Watch

That last comment raises the old chestnut of why Tennis Australia can't get the promising youngsters - Klein, Jonesie, Lindahl (all Junior Grand Slam Winners or Finalists/Top 10 Juniors) - to make the transition between the Juniors and Seniors. I still think there is potential for these players to break into and stay in the top 100, given the average age of players in the top 100 is over 25 years old.
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post #7 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-26-2010, 12:37 AM
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Re: Aussie Mens Rankings Watch

Australia's recent Davis Cup loss to Belgium that puts them back to the peanut gallery competition that includes New Zealand must certainly warrant questions on the current State of Men's Tennis and for that fact the Junior Development program.Sam Stosur has saved Australian Tennis further scrutiny along with imports Groth and Rodionova.Look Deeper into the Women's game and it is worse than the men's.No Junior girl representatives in the last grandslam tournament of the year and a poor showing at Junior Wimbledon by the girls gives us a glimpse of what is in store for the future and its NOT GOOD!Lleyton Hewitt is literally on his last legs and those under him are just not up to a high level in Men's Tennis.Ball was a disaster and Peter Luczak has hovered around the 100's for some time and he is also at the end of his career. So which Australian Male could restore pride in Australian tennis.Davis Cup Captain John Fitzgerald was upbeat. ''These are tough situations that they haven't faced a lot,'' Fitzgerald said of his young charges such as the 23-year-old Ball.C'mon Fitzy Nadal at 24 has numerous grandslam titles under his belt. And what tough situations are you going to get at 151 in the world?How long do you think it will take a player like Ball to achieve this experience! I am sure the Davis Cup Captain will soon be replaced , however its not his fault and the next Captain will also find the cupboards bare and we are not moving into the Main World Group Davis Cup in the near future.


Lets Look at the current rankings









Lleyton Hewitt | 37
Peter Luczak| 129
Carsten Ball | 151
Matt Ebden | 164
Marinko Matosevic | 166
Bernard Tomic | 219
John Millman | 229
Greg Jones | 229
Nick Lindahl | 242
Brydan Klein | 260

Take out Hewitt... who then in the above group will come through,In my mind the only player that has a chance is Bernard Tomic who turns 18 soon.His form has not been anything special and is playing currently in Thailand.I can remember watching Tomic and Grigor Dimitrov play each other at Junior Wimbledon and thinking Tomic just does not posses any major weapon whilst the Bulgarian was a shot maker.Dimitrov has just won his third challenger in a row and is now around 142 in the World and rising! Group all the others in the same boat unfortunately I cant see anyone in the above list making top 100 outside Tomic. Pat Rafter had this to say about current Junior tennis "Rafter said there was no secret answer to ending Australia's decline and suggested, if anything, Tennis Australia was pampering the up-and-coming juniors. ''One thing I'm really jamming down the kids' throats is that we've got to make it tougher for them, they've got to toughen up as well and there are ways to do that" he went on to say "By giving them everything, it's not helping to find solutions. If we give them a tough situation where they are on their own for a few months with no coach, no nothing and make them do it tough in Europe, you've got to find different solutions and ways of getting around it. ''It's just life skills to me that these kids could take into their game as well and, when they are on the court, they've got to tough it out for themselves and not have someone tell them what to do all the time.'' Yep Pat you have some Merit in what you say but really Life skills begins at home and that's where the kids have it too easy!!! Ben Mitchell ,James Duckworth and Jason Kubler are some of the teenagers touted to come through.......but I ask come through to where? the 100-150 mark?When you see Juniors like Dimitrov who is coached by an Aussie Peter McNamara then one has little hope for our current juniors. The current challengers in Australia is really just a competition for the locals ...yes some points for rankings but not a true picture where you sit in the World.I was reading the Tennis news boards and someone made this statement commenting on the Aussie guys "That last comment raises the old chestnut of why Tennis Australia can't get the promising youngsters - Klein, Jonesie, Lindahl (all Junior Grand Slam Winners or Finalists/Top 10 Juniors) - to make the transition between the Juniors and Seniors. I still think there is potential for these players to break into and stay in the top 100, given the average age of players in the top 100 is over 25 years old."...Basically Itf junior rankings are Mickey Mouse.Look at American Jack Sock who was unseeded for this years USOPEN junior event and won it....its no guarantee if you have a high ITF junior ranking that you will make it with the big boy's it probably means that your Parents can afford sending you all over the World to places like Egypt and Serbia to gain inflated points that for most looks good on the ITF junior rankings list but means nothing when you enter the pro events.Rafter has the right track we all need to toughen up!! how we can do that is another question.. Unfortunately for Aussie Tennis it wont be oi oi oi it will be OH OH OH for a few years to come!
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post #8 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-26-2010, 07:03 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Aussie Mens Rankings Watch

Quote:
Originally Posted by grandlam1959 View Post
Australia's recent Davis Cup loss to Belgium that puts them back to the peanut gallery competition that includes New Zealand must certainly warrant questions on the current State of Men's Tennis and for that fact the Junior Development program.Sam Stosur has saved Australian Tennis further scrutiny along with imports Groth and Rodionova.Look Deeper into the Women's game and it is worse than the men's.

No Junior girl representatives in the last grandslam tournament of the year and a poor showing at Junior Wimbledon by the girls gives us a glimpse of what is in store for the future and its NOT GOOD!Lleyton Hewitt is literally on his last legs and those under him are just not up to a high level in Men's Tennis.Ball was a disaster and Peter Luczak has hovered around the 100's for some time and he is also at the end of his career. So which Australian Male could restore pride in Australian tennis.Davis Cup Captain John Fitzgerald was upbeat.

''These are tough situations that they haven't faced a lot,'' Fitzgerald said of his young charges such as the 23-year-old Ball.C'mon Fitzy Nadal at 24 has numerous grandslam titles under his belt. And what tough situations are you going to get at 151 in the world?How long do you think it will take a player like Ball to achieve this experience! I am sure the Davis Cup Captain will soon be replaced , however its not his fault and the next Captain will also find the cupboards bare and we are not moving into the Main World Group Davis Cup in the near future.


Lets Look at the current rankings

Lleyton Hewitt | 37
Peter Luczak| 129
Carsten Ball | 151
Matt Ebden | 164
Marinko Matosevic | 166
Bernard Tomic | 219
John Millman | 229
Greg Jones | 229
Nick Lindahl | 242
Brydan Klein | 260

Take out Hewitt... who then in the above group will come through,In my mind the only player that has a chance is Bernard Tomic who turns 18 soon.His form has not been anything special and is playing currently in Thailand.I can remember watching Tomic and Grigor Dimitrov play each other at Junior Wimbledon and thinking Tomic just does not posses any major weapon whilst the Bulgarian was a shot maker.Dimitrov has just won his third challenger in a row and is now around 142 in the World and rising! Group all the others in the same boat unfortunately I cant see anyone in the above list making top 100 outside Tomic.

Pat Rafter had this to say about current Junior tennis "Rafter said there was no secret answer to ending Australia's decline and suggested, if anything, Tennis Australia was pampering the up-and-coming juniors. ''One thing I'm really jamming down the kids' throats is that we've got to make it tougher for them, they've got to toughen up as well and there are ways to do that" he went on to say "By giving them everything, it's not helping to find solutions. If we give them a tough situation where they are on their own for a few months with no coach, no nothing and make them do it tough in Europe, you've got to find different solutions and ways of getting around it.

''It's just life skills to me that these kids could take into their game as well and, when they are on the court, they've got to tough it out for themselves and not have someone tell them what to do all the time.'' Yep Pat you have some Merit in what you say but really Life skills begins at home and that's where the kids have it too easy!!! Ben Mitchell ,James Duckworth and Jason Kubler are some of the teenagers touted to come through.......but I ask come through to where? the 100-150 mark?When you see Juniors like Dimitrov who is coached by an Aussie Peter McNamara then one has little hope for our current juniors. The current challengers in Australia is really just a competition for the locals ...yes some points for rankings but not a true picture where you sit in the World.

I was reading the Tennis news boards and someone made this statement commenting on the Aussie guys "That last comment raises the old chestnut of why Tennis Australia can't get the promising youngsters - Klein, Jonesie, Lindahl (all Junior Grand Slam Winners or Finalists/Top 10 Juniors) - to make the transition between the Juniors and Seniors. I still think there is potential for these players to break into and stay in the top 100, given the average age of players in the top 100 is over 25 years old."...Basically Itf junior rankings are Mickey Mouse.

Look at American Jack Sock who was unseeded for this years USOPEN junior event and won it....its no guarantee if you have a high ITF junior ranking that you will make it with the big boy's it probably means that your Parents can afford sending you all over the World to places like Egypt and Serbia to gain inflated points that for most looks good on the ITF junior rankings list but means nothing when you enter the pro events.Rafter has the right track we all need to toughen up!! how we can do that is another question.. Unfortunately for Aussie Tennis it wont be oi oi oi it will be OH OH OH for a few years to come!
http://steve1959.blogspot.com/
Although I agree with in some aspects there are somethings I need to address. All but this years DC playoffs have been losses that were to be expected. Serbia away on clay and Chile away on clay, we really didn't have much chance at all in either of them, especially when Lleyton didn't play in Chile. We choked this year, it happens but the difference between Australia and New Zealand in group 1 is that Australia hae been on the verge of getting out for the last three years where as New Zealand barely won through to group 1.

It is a bit suprising to see how few younger girls we coming through now but eventually there will be girls because there are wildcards to give out. Remember Monika Wejnert is still capable of playing ITF junior tournaments right now and she won an ITF womens tournament two years ago. Lleyton is definitely in the twilight of his career but I think he knows that he needs to wait for someone else to come along before he retires. Jeez comparing Carsten Ball to possibly the greatest tennis player of all time in Nadal, yep Australia are definitely always going to be able to produce world number 1 tennis players huh?

Tomic could be the one that sends Australia into a new era of tennis dominance. Obviously he is good enough to be top 50 and if even one of the other juniors like Mitchell or Kubler can reach the top 100 and stay there then I think we'll be fine for the next 10 years. Things take time, Tennis Australia have only just put a lot of these new criteria in place and it will take at least 5 years before we see it actually produce a good batch of players.
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post #9 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-26-2010, 08:56 AM
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Re: Aussie Mens Rankings Watch

Spoken like a true older experienced player player "Granlam 1959", when Australia dominated basically because there were only about 30 countries playing top flight tennis, if that. The depth of Men's tennis is far greater in the present day, with over 180 countries listed playing the pro-tennis circuit. That is 180 No. 1 players in each country, all the top players of course receiving backing from their National Tennis Associations. Digest that.
As for the statement ".its no guarantee if you have a high ITF junior ranking that you will make it with the big boy's it probably means that your Parents can afford sending you all over the World to places like Egypt and Serbia to gain inflated points that for most looks good on the ITF junior rankings list but means nothing when you enter the pro events."
I whole-heartedly agree, but the money drain on the parents does not end with the cessation of Junior tennis. Trying to get a Senior ranking costs a bucket. The ITF Futures circuit has total prize money of $15,000, with the winner getting approx $1,900. And it has been that level for about ten or more years now - who in th normal work place would go ten year with out a raise?
After a week's accommodation, travel expenses, stringing costs, etc. not to mention tax (30% taken out in the USA) there is squat left, and you still have to eat a healthy meal 3 times a day, get physio, buy sunblock, etc. It costs a fortune. No wonder so many players drop out, and I marvel at how the lesser players keep competing. Top performances in the Junior arena can attract sponsorship or more funding from the Associations, which in turn helps in the transition to Senior tennis.
Federer, Monfil, Cilic, Nishikori, plus many other current players played the Junior Grand Slams and did well, albeit at a young age. Others like Donald Young excelled at Junior Grand Slams and has struggled to make the transition but is now making progress as he gets stronger and more experience.
Again a review of the ranking shows that the players are making the transition at an older age, with only one teenager currently ranked under 200. It is not 1979, but 2010. We need current day solutions to a current day situation.
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post #10 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-26-2010, 09:07 AM
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Re: Aussie Mens Rankings Watch

With respect to the Davis Cup loss to Belgium and LLeyton carrying the burden, perhaps questions should be asked why he played the doubles. A player who has recently been plagued by injury and has had little court time recently is asked to potentially play three five set matches. Hanley and Ball (who has had a lot of success with Gooch lately) could have played against the Belgiums, who did not have great doubles records, leaving Lleyton to play only the singles, lessening his load and potential to breakdown.
As good as Rochus is at singles, he struggles in the doubles - a first round loss at the Australian Open to Greg Jones/Kaden Hensel an example of that.
Perhaps TA did not do their homework well enough and played the wrong strategy. A win for Ball/Hanley in the dubs would have left Lleyton fresh for the singles.
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post #11 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-26-2010, 10:01 AM
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Re: Aussie Mens Rankings Watch

Yes correct its the expense that is killing some of our talented juniors , and I do realize that Tennis is A Global game , have you done your home work on the smaller country's producing world class players and with very little National funding.You talk about costs so in your opinion are juniors with talent getting enough opportunity's or is the money stopping them to progress? Yes its not 1979 but 2010 but unless some answers are found it will be 2020 and another generation lost.Our way of life is getting too Americanized things are just too easy for kids this side of the world.I wish I had the answers , I don't but we have to choose wisely and channel funding into appropriate area's.....But we get false impressions and we keep hearing these new development plans...all I know is a young boy from South Australia reached number 1 in the World how and why?Rafter is right we are too soft and the pampering of our current juniors need to stop.Hewitt has done his job and injury's have taken there toll.The future with out Hewitt is not bright.I read with interest your thoughts RustyOz....and i agree we do need a current day solution.
By the way your stats are wrong with teenagers under 200 .....171 - Ryan Harrison (USA) 18 Years, 04 Months, 19 Days
146 - Grigor Dimitrov (BUL) 19 Years, 04 Months, 10 Days 193 - Andrey Kuznetsov (RUS) 19 Years, 07 Months, 04 Days
148 - Federico del Bonis (ARG) 19 Years, 11 Months, 21 Days....Watch out for these players. Donald Young is only 21 and at 107.
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post #12 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-26-2010, 10:34 PM
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Re: Aussie Mens Rankings Watch

Sorry Grandlam - my stats are done on a monthly basis, as I analyze the top 500 players at the beginning of the month and and there have been a few young movers of late. Interestingly, of the top 200 players, as at Aug 10 the make-up, age wise, is as follows:

under 18 year old - 0 players
18 to 21 - 7 players
21 to 25 - 66 players
25 to 30 - 95 players
32 to 35 - 32 players
over 35 - Nil

showing a staggering (my opinion) 63.5% of players in the top 200 are over 25 years of age and only 3.5% are under 21.

As for the top 100:
No players under 21
21 to 25 - 34 players
25 to 30 - 51 players
32 to 35 - 15 players

moving the percentages to 66% of players in the top 100 are over 25 years of age and the other 34 percent between 21 and 25.

An older players game - more dependent on strength, experience and, dare I say it, National Assocation help at an older age - equals assisted coaching, assisted physio and perhaps additional funding.
Helping the youngsters does help, but for those who show promise, not just in results but also in demeanour and behaviour (professional both
on court and in their life off court), that help should continue to a later age, as reflected above.

Last edited by RustyOz; 09-26-2010 at 10:46 PM. Reason: reply not finished when accidently posted
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post #13 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-27-2010, 04:42 AM
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Re: Aussie Mens Rankings Watch

With respect to the youngsters 21 or under, some of which Grandlam noted, it is interesting to reflect upon the top (say) 15 players under 21, and how they fared in the Juniors: (ranking current at 20 Sep 2010)

1. Donald Young 23/07/89, 21 years old, ATP Rank 108, Junior ITF 1 (Won Jun. Wimbledon 07, Oz Open 03 & 05)
2. Ricardo Berankis 21/06/90, 20 years old, ATP Rank 113, Junior ITF 1 (Won Jun. US Open 07)
3. Kei Nishikori 29/12/89, 20 years old, ATP Rank 123, Junior ITF 7 (high ATP rank 56 - injuries)
4. Frederico Del Bonis 05/10/90 20 years old, ATP Rank 148, Junior ITF 321
5. Benoit Paire 08/05/89, 21 years old, ATP Rank 143, Junior ITF 91
6. Grigor Dimitrov 16/05/91, 19 years old, ATP Rank 146, Junior ITF 1 (Won Jun. Wimbledon 08, US 08)
7. Thomas Schoorel 08/04/89, 21 years old, ATP Rank 153, Junior ITF 23
8. Uladzimir Ignatik 14/07/90, 20 years old, ATP Rank 163, Junior ITF 1 (Won Jun. French 07)
9. Guillaime Rufin 26/05/90, 20 years old, ATP Rank 174, Junior ITF 6
10. Andrej Martin 20/09/89, 21 years old, ATP Rank 182, Junior ITF 8
11.Andrey Kuznetsov 22/02/91, 19 years old, ATP Rank 193, Junior ITF 3 (Won Jun. Wimbledon 09)
12. Ryan Harrison 07/05/92, 18 years old, ATP Rank 171, Junior ITF 7
13. Filip Krajinovic 27/02/92, 18 years old, ATP Rank 218, Junior ITF 6
14. Bernard Tomic 21/10/92, 18 years old, ATP Rank 219, Junior ITF 2 (Won Jun. Oz 08 US 09)
15. Greg Jones 31/01/89, 21 years old, ATP Rank 229, Junior ITF 4 (Finalist Jun. French 07)

With the exception of Del Bonis, Paire & Schoorel there is a strong correlation between success in the Junior ITF/Junior Slams and doing well in the Seniors.
In my opinion competing in the Junior ITF gives the youngsters strong competition against players of their own strength, a sense of what travelling on the tour is like, an incentive to compete well to achieve being at the Grand Slams and a good measure of their standing in international terms, all at an early age, as well as a look at what "being professional" is all about.

Of course success at the Junior level is no guarentee of continued success at the Senior level, as many Top Juniors have not become Top 100 players.

The litmus test for the younger of the Junior players above is how well the back up and defend there standing/points next year.
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post #14 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-27-2010, 04:47 AM
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Re: Aussie Mens Rankings Watch

The winner of the Junior US Open, Jack Sock, is perhaps representative of one of those youngsters who do not travel and compete on the Junior ITF circuit, as hee has a pretty decent bio - having won the USTA BBoys 18&U National title, thereby getting a Wild Card into the main draw of the US Open this year and has already won a Mens Futures title.

As per the US Open web site:
"Sock, 17, of Lincoln, Neb., won the USTA Boys' 18s National Championships on Sunday to earn a wild card into this year's main draw, his first at a Grand Slam event. He reached the round of 16 in singles and the semifinals in doubles at last year's US Open juniors and also advanced to the quarterfinals at the 2009 Dunlop Orange Bowl. Sock won his first professional title last year at the $10,000 USTA Pro Circuit event in Amelia Island, Fla".

I look forward to see how young Jack progresses...
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post #15 of 29 (permalink) Old 09-27-2010, 05:24 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Aussie Mens Rankings Watch

Age | Name | Projected Ranking | Points Defending | Points Gained | Total Points
  1. 29 | Lleyton Hewitt | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1135
  2. 31 | Peter Luczak | 137 | 17 | 0 | 414
  3. 23 | Carsten Ball | 153 | 0 | 0 | 321
  4. 22 | Matt Ebden | 167 | 1 | 0 | 295
  5. 25 | Marinko Matosevic | 170 | 0 | 0 | 293
  6. 17 | Bernard Tomic | 218 | 0 | 0 | 224
  7. 21 | John Millman | 227 | 14 | 15 | 210
  8. 21 | Greg Jones | 230 | 0 | 0 | 208
  9. 22 | Nick Lindahl | 241 | 0 | 0 | 196
  10. 20 | Brydan Klein | 257 | 0 | 3 | 180
  • List made on September 27th 2010.
  • I have added an age tab at the very left of every player due to the debate about how old our players are compared to the norm. As you can clearly see we average a player of about 23 that has a ranking of about 180.
  • Luczak nearly out of the top 140 now, really suffering from not gaining any points lately.
  • Millman has been able to maintain his number 7 spot in Australia with a finals showing in Alice Springs last week. Now only has 8 points to defend between now and the very end of November, with a few good showings in the US and probably back in Asia for some challengers John could quite easily become top 200 very soon.
  • Brydan Klein still benefiting from not having played this time last year and is moving up the rankings freely. Only about 10 points for Brydan to gain now before he will be top 250 and receive Direct Entry into both the WC playoff and Australian Open qualifying if he does not receive a WC.
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