Realistically even if Istomin won both of his singles matches we should still win the tie 2-1, personally seen as it's most likely on clay don't put Tomic in. Hewitt for me would better suit the number 2 singles spot and play Istomin on day 1 and then have most likely Ebden as our top player, at worse we would go into the doubles 1-1. Then have as much as I hate to say this Guccione and Hewitt in the doubles only reason I hate that is because the Gooch is just to inconsistent, I know they have an 8-0 record together in Davis Cup doubles or something like that but I just wouldn't bet my house on them, but seen as its only Uzbekistan we should then go up 2-1. Leading into the final day with Istomin playing back to back days up against a fresh Ebden who has only played 3 sets, I'd tip Matty that way but he could lose so then have Matosevic to clean up in the fifth rubber if all goes bad.
I know you all will probably jump on me for that prediction but oh well.
I think you might be putting a little too much faith in Ebden. The facts are if Lleyton and Bernard play singles we WILL win this tie. Why play a weaker team if we are able to play our strongest? You say Bernard isn't great on clay yet he was the only player to win a singles match against Germany on clay in the Davis Cup playoffs last year? On Day 1 Bernard should win and Lleyton has a shot against Istomin. Our doubles combination should be good enough to get the W and from there we finish it off on day 3, if we haven't already. Have you been following Ebden or Matosevic so far this year? Outside of DC neither of them have won a match. In fact Matosevic hasn't won a set outside of DC! The next tie is less than two months away...
Either way you look at it, not putting Bernard in the team would be a foolish move and could have catastrophic consequences.