I think Sela will win, he's in shape too! But you're right, if Greg's serve works this can be very close... in the last few matches Greg beat his opponents after grueling battles so I think he is mentally tough. However, finals are always something else than the other matches... wonder if his head will hold.
Yeah you're right, he doesn't have the best record in finals either (RG juniors loss, Burnie loss, futures finals losses). I watched Greg in two of his three matches at the Australian Open qualifying this year and he was certainly mentally strong. His main objective is to hold serve and that is how he builds confidence.
If someone gets an early break on him 9 times out of 10 he will lose that set but with a few holds of serve under his belt he plays much better on the receiving end. I'd love to see him get up but I think Sela will be just too classy for him. Then again I said that about Sugita and he beat him so hopefully I am proven wrong again!