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Thread: Week 4, Day 1
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post #1 of (permalink) Old 09-18-2006, 09:51 PM Thread Starter
country flag Ernie_Money
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Join Date: Aug 2006
Age: 40
Posts: 68
Week 4, Day 1

Took it on the chin yesterday with my NFL teaser, so I will look to hopefully bounce back this week and look to avoid the landmine next Sunday for my next teaser. However, this will at least give me the opportunity to explain what happens after a losing week.

I consider $1000 a week an "Ultimate Goal" to reach every week. I don't get fixated on it, I do NOT win that much every week (not even close) but it is an "ultimate" goal that I use as a "guide". So I will round up to the nearest $100 for the first 3 weeks and say that in Week 1, I fell $100 short of my "goal", Week 2, I fell $200 short, and Week 3, I fell $1600 short. So now I will spread those "losses" over the next 19 weeks, and now my goal for the next 19 weeks is to win $1100 a week. If I do reach that number before any of the upcoming weeks are over (i.e., if I am up $1100 on Thursday), I will say that Week 4 is "officially over, having met my goal", but I may opt to keep betting, establishing a "side pot" or starting Week 5 early, looking to chip away at that $1900 number by a few hundred bucks. The key is NOT to get obsessed with being "down $1900", because all that will do is make me "chase after that $1900" and that's where the trouble begins. Because hey, I really am not down $1900, I am up about $1300 for 3 weeks. So again, this is a "built-in" money management technique with this "betting system" that hopefully keeps me from chasing too much.

Just a side note: I cannot wait for the NHL and NBA to get here because this is a tough time of year to make money with baseball with managers resting players and starting rookies, etc. I will need to pick my spots and just try and keep my head above water until the NHL and NBA seasons provide me with more daily opportunities to make some dough.

Today I like 2 plays:

Florida/NY Mets over 9.5, laying $180 to win $150


Brian Moehler and Steve Trachsel have been struggling, but so has the Mets offense. With a 15 mph breeze blowing out to LF at game time, I like the Mets offense to wake up tonight and get the win to clinch the division (finally) and I think they can score 7 or 8 tonight, so I just need the Marlins to put up 2 or 3 and this should cash.

Also will go to the NFL to pick:

Jacksonville Jaguars +3, laying $186 to win $150


I am buying the half-point just to be on the safe side so I at least get the push if the Steelers win by 3. People are under-estimating how good Jacksonville is. I rarely use this logic when handicapping games, but cannot help it tonight, and that is this: After seeing how bad Miami was yesterday, how impressive was the Steelers' opening night win in hindsight? And after seeing Dallas destroy Washington last night, this makes the Jaguars' opening-day win more impressive, especially considering they were down 10-0 early in that game. Also throw in the fact that the Jaguars have played the Steelers tough the last 3 head-to-head meetings and I'll take a shot with the home dog.

Week 3: 3-3, -$575
Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge)
Week 1: 5-1, +$913
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