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post #1 of 17 (permalink) Old 01-31-2006, 05:21 AM
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Lightbulb NBA - UNDERS Situational Plays

Sometimes the most obvious bets are winners.

This might be just a coincidence but whenever two teams play back to back matches and the total is a relatively high one, from my experience more often than not it falls UNDER.

From tomorrow onwards, I will start and track certain games that fit a particular situation. The criteria is as follows:

1. Both teams involved must have played the night before
2. The total set for the match in question must be 198.5 or over
3. The teams that are playing must be from different conferences

The theory is obvious, that if the players get heavy legs in the second half and the pace of the game drops off especially if it involves a team on the road trip on the other side of the country hence the inclusion of the last point.

Post games that fit into the above category, (Teams involved and the TOTALS line) it will be interesting to see how many do hit the UNDERS for the rest of the season.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Season Record 2-2-0

1. Clippers v Raptors - LOSS
2. Cavs v Warriors - WIN
3. Nuggets v Magic - LOSS
4. Celtics v Lakers - WIN

Last edited by bad gambler; 03-21-2006 at 03:04 AM.
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post #2 of 17 (permalink) Old 02-01-2006, 12:27 AM
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Re: NBA - UNDERS Situational Plays

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
Sometimes the most obvious bets are winners.

This might be just a coincidence but whenever two teams play back to back matches and the total is a relatively high one, from my experience more often than not it falls UNDER.

From tomorrow onwards, I will start and track certain games that fit a particular situation. The criteria is as follows:

1. Both teams involved must have played the night before
2. The total set for the match in question must be 198.5 or over
3. The teams that are playing must be from different conferences

The theory is obvious, that if the players get heavy legs in the second half and the pace of the game drops off especially if it involves a team on the road trip on the other side of the country hence the inclusion of the last point.

Post games that fit into the above category, (Teams involved and the TOTALS line) it will be interesting to see how many do hit the UNDERS for the rest of the season.
Even more so 2nd half in the b2b games,say if the first half goes over or high scoring then the chance of the 2nd half after b2b games would be more then not low scoring,sometime you got to look at the team itself say some teams are younger n may not effect them as much as older teams or even some teams have weaker benches therefor their starting 5 are used much more or should i say rely on more
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post #3 of 17 (permalink) Old 02-05-2006, 03:42 PM
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Re: NBA - UNDERS Situational Plays

This system sounds pretty tight. Have there been any plays yet?
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post #4 of 17 (permalink) Old 02-05-2006, 06:52 PM
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Re: NBA - UNDERS Situational Plays

Apologies, since it was a very early game (my time) i didn't have the chance to post it:

GAME: Clippers v Raptors
DATE: 5/2/06
TOTAL: 203.5
post #5 of 17 (permalink) Old 02-05-2006, 08:53 PM
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Re: NBA - UNDERS Situational Plays

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
Apologies, since it was a very early game (my time) i didn't have the chance to post it:

GAME: Clippers v Raptors
DATE: 5/2/06
TOTAL: 203.5

Well in principle this bet won (Reg score of 202) but due to OT it went OVER.

I will however still count this as a loss.
post #6 of 17 (permalink) Old 02-05-2006, 09:07 PM
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Re: NBA - UNDERS Situational Plays

Excellent theory - if you post them ahead of time & I'll get in on that action...
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post #7 of 17 (permalink) Old 02-05-2006, 09:25 PM
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Re: NBA - UNDERS Situational Plays

obviously this is a very simplistic system but I am satisfied the logic is sound even though these guys are pros and backing up is something all of them are used to.

i have been working on a few other systems for sides and overs betting but might try that next season
post #8 of 17 (permalink) Old 02-11-2006, 03:54 PM
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Re: NBA - UNDERS Situational Plays

Ok so another game today falls into the criteria.

GAME: Cavs v Warriors
DATE: 11/2/06
TOTAL: 201.5
post #9 of 17 (permalink) Old 02-12-2006, 04:24 AM
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Re: NBA - UNDERS Situational Plays

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
Ok so another game today falls into the criteria.

GAME: Cavs v Warriors
DATE: 11/2/06
TOTAL: 201.5

FT Warriors win 99-91

WIN
post #10 of 17 (permalink) Old 02-12-2006, 05:50 AM
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Re: NBA - UNDERS Situational Plays

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
FT Warriors win 99-91

WIN
dangit, I was out & about & missed it - congrats!
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post #11 of 17 (permalink) Old 02-12-2006, 07:10 AM
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Re: NBA - UNDERS Situational Plays

Very nice BG.
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post #12 of 17 (permalink) Old 03-04-2006, 09:42 AM
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Re: NBA - UNDERS Situational Plays

We have another play for today:

GAME: Nuggets v Magic
DATE: 4/3/06
TOTAL: 199.5
post #13 of 17 (permalink) Old 03-05-2006, 05:14 AM
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Re: NBA - UNDERS Situational Plays

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
We have another play for today:

GAME: Nuggets v Magic
DATE: 4/3/06
TOTAL: 199.5

FT

Nuggets 110-94

LOST
post #14 of 17 (permalink) Old 03-20-2006, 01:43 PM
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Re: NBA - UNDERS Situational Plays

GAME: Celtics v Lakers
DATE: 20/3/06
TOTAL: 202.5
post #15 of 17 (permalink) Old 03-20-2006, 06:16 PM
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Re: NBA - UNDERS Situational Plays

I think the Celtics vs Lakers game can go over 202.5 this line. But personally i don't pay too much attention on the game total, it's just too risky and unpredictable.
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