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post #1 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-10-2005, 08:56 AM
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State of Origin II - LOOK INSIDE!!!!

Right, this is going to be my BIGGEST play in any sport in 2005, a lot on the line, NSW down 0-1 after going down in golden point in QLD, they get joey johns back, still unconvinced by him

However let me say, there is no way this series decided 2-0 to QLD

NSW WILL WIN THIS

So playing,

NSW ML to beat QLD pays $1.50 (70 units!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)*************

I will also play them at the spread -6.5 as well which pays $1.90 (10 units)

Get in early because this line will be $1.40 come Wednesday night.


You can nail this with a 18 inch nail, the longest in the toolshed!!!
post #2 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-10-2005, 09:05 AM
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Re: State of Origin II - LOOK INSIDE!!!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
Right, this is going to be my BIGGEST play in any sport in 2005, a lot on the line, NSW down 0-1 after going down in golden point in QLD, they get joey johns back, still unconvinced by him

However let me say, there is no way this series decided 2-0 to QLD

NSW WILL WIN THIS

So playing,

NSW ML to beat QLD pays $1.50 (70 units!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)*************

I will also play them at the spread -6.5 as well which pays $1.90 (10 units)

Get in early because this line will be $1.40 come Wednesday night.


You can nail this with a 18 inch nail, the longest in the toolshed!!!
why so confident about a 50/50 match?
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post #3 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-10-2005, 09:12 AM
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Re: State of Origin II - LOOK INSIDE!!!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by its.like.that
why so confident about a 50/50 match?
I don't see this as a 50/50 match at all

1. Game 1 - We saw what NSW can do in the second half, they scored 4 tries to 2, and ultimately it was some bad decision making and poor in field kicking that cost them. The halves for Game 2 strength is their kicking with Johns and Anasta

2. History - QLD have never won at Telstra Stadium

3. NSW are down 1-0. Ricky will make sure the intensity will be stepped up from Game 1

4. Crowd - 80,000 people supporting the Blues is worth at least 10 points IMO.

Lets face the facts, NSW are the most talented and skilled team of the two. I know games are not won on paper, but all factors here lead to one result. If they lose, I take a 6 month break from betting.
post #4 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-10-2005, 10:24 AM
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Re: State of Origin II - LOOK INSIDE!!!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
Right, this is going to be my BIGGEST play in any sport in 2005, a lot on the line, NSW down 0-1 after going down in golden point in QLD, they get joey johns back, still unconvinced by him

However let me say, there is no way this series decided 2-0 to QLD

NSW WILL WIN THIS

So playing,

NSW ML to beat QLD pays $1.50 (70 units!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!)*************

I will also play them at the spread -6.5 as well which pays $1.90 (10 units)

Get in early because this line will be $1.40 come Wednesday night.


You can nail this with a 18 inch nail, the longest in the toolshed!!!

Im with you BG but im going to wait. Gasiner looks like he's out now and they fowards in doubt for QLD are playing.

I remeber game 3 last year i put 3k on NSW To win @1.60 coz i knew they were goin to win.

I recon ill be going big two, but im just going to wait
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post #5 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-10-2005, 10:25 AM
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Re: State of Origin II - LOOK INSIDE!!!!

BG U CAN GET -5.5 ON TAB which is a better option than 6 imo
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post #6 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-11-2005, 05:58 AM
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Re: State of Origin II - LOOK INSIDE!!!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
I don't see this as a 50/50 match at all

1. Game 1 - We saw what NSW can do in the second half, they scored 4 tries to 2, and ultimately it was some bad decision making and poor in field kicking that cost them. The halves for Game 2 strength is their kicking with Johns and Anasta

2. History - QLD have never won at Telstra Stadium

3. NSW are down 1-0. Ricky will make sure the intensity will be stepped up from Game 1

4. Crowd - 80,000 people supporting the Blues is worth at least 10 points IMO.

Lets face the facts, NSW are the most talented and skilled team of the two. I know games are not won on paper, but all factors here lead to one result. If they lose, I take a 6 month break from betting.
1. Game 1 - 2nd half, NSW' last 2 tries came from forward passes, they never deserved to win the match.

2. History doesn't matter, refer to Federer-Hewitt, Federer-Nalbandian, Moya-Ferrero, Geelong-Fremantle, Warratah-Reds, Warratahs-Brumbies, and so on...

3. QLD always play with more intensity that NSW

4. Crowd doesn't make a difference, only luck does.

5. Johns and Anasta are in SH*TE form...

6. Why put such a big bet on this shitty match, when with all the rain around, there are much safer bets at EVEN MONEY ODDS .


(Jimmy is only trying to guide BG, BG doesn't listen and turns back on Jimmy, Jimmy hits 3 from downtown... what can BG come up with )...
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post #7 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-11-2005, 06:02 AM
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Re: State of Origin II - LOOK INSIDE!!!!

for your sake, I hope NSW win...
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post #8 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-11-2005, 08:18 AM
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Re: State of Origin II - LOOK INSIDE!!!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by its.like.that
1. Game 1 - 2nd half, NSW\\\\\\\' last 2 tries came from forward passes, they never deserved to win the match.

2. History doesn\\\\\\\'t matter, refer to Federer-Hewitt, Federer-Nalbandian, Moya-Ferrero, Geelong-Fremantle, Warratah-Reds, Warratahs-Brumbies, and so on...

3. QLD always play with more intensity that NSW

4. Crowd doesn\\\\\\\'t make a difference, only luck does.

5. Johns and Anasta are in SH*TE form...

6. Why put such a big bet on this shitty match, when with all the rain around, there are much safer bets at EVEN MONEY ODDS .


(Jimmy is only trying to guide BG, BG doesn\\\\\\\'t listen and turns back on Jimmy, Jimmy hits 3 from downtown... what can BG come up with )...
1. The reality of it was that NSW did score 4 tries in the second half, forward pass or no forward pass and they were the most dominant team in the second half - we always know deserving to win and actually winning are two different things

2. Point taken there - I just used it as an argument to build my case

3. I agree to a certain extent, but now the situation is different, QLD are playing from front. Stuart as you would well be aware is one of the most instense coaches around, no way he doesnt enjoy the Blues are primed for this, though the players are going to need need little encouragement there.

4. I respectfully disagree here - crowd does make a difference. You cant tell me 80,000 people cheering madly for the NSW does not in any way lift the players, see past history of results on the ground as reference

5. This is where I am most uneasy about - Johns is still raw I accept that. But Anasta has been the standout in a pathetic side, I have no problem with his selection. However Johns will be playing with superstars around him, so he wont be expected to do as much as say if he were playing for the KNights. Anasta can lessen the burden with general field kicking and you have to admit, Johns is one of the best defensive halfbacks going around, strong tackler and has a strong sense of awareness in general. You dont lose these two traits regardless of whether you are coming from a long layoff or not.

6. I have yet to put te bet, and to be honest if it rains, It wont make a diffrenece to me. IMO its not a shitty bet at all, thats why I am going hard on it About your quip about better odds, I thought that was the nature of odds, as they go lower the perceived risk reduces as well - as a rule of thumb i wont be outlaying this many units on anything more than $1.50, I just would not be comfortable doing so


BG appreciates jimmys role as playing devils advocate, however BG sidesteps jimmy with a big left step, steps on the gas and scores under the posts leaving him huffing and puffing in his wake, TRY TIMMMEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!

Last edited by bad gambler; 06-11-2005 at 08:21 AM.
post #9 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-11-2005, 08:40 AM
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Re: State of Origin II - LOOK INSIDE!!!!

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
1. The reality of it was that NSW did score 4 tries in the second half, forward pass or no forward pass and they were the most dominant team in the second half - we always know deserving to win and actually winning are two different things

2. Point taken there - I just used it as an argument to build my case

3. I agree to a certain extent, but now the situation is different, QLD are playing from front. Stuart as you would well be aware is one of the most instense coaches around, no way he doesnt enjoy the Blues are primed for this, though the players are going to need need little encouragement there.

4. I respectfully disagree here - crowd does make a difference. You cant tell me 80,000 people cheering madly for the NSW does not in any way lift the players, see past history of results on the ground as reference

5. This is where I am most uneasy about - Johns is still raw I accept that. But Anasta has been the standout in a pathetic side, I have no problem with his selection. However Johns will be playing with superstars around him, so he wont be expected to do as much as say if he were playing for the KNights. Anasta can lessen the burden with general field kicking and you have to admit, Johns is one of the best defensive halfbacks going around, strong tackler and has a strong sense of awareness in general. You dont lose these two traits regardless of whether you are coming from a long layoff or not.

6. I have yet to put te bet, and to be honest if it rains, It wont make a diffrenece to me. IMO its not a shitty bet at all, thats why I am going hard on it About your quip about better odds, I thought that was the nature of odds, as they go lower the perceived risk reduces as well - as a rule of thumb i wont be outlaying this many units on anything more than $1.50, I just would not be comfortable doing so


BG appreciates jimmys role as playing devils advocate, however BG sidesteps jimmy with a big left step, steps on the gas and scores under the posts leaving him huffing and puffing in his wake, TRY TIMMMEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!
LOL GO U 2!
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post #10 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-11-2005, 09:40 AM
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Re: State of Origin II - LOOK INSIDE!!!!

Bottom of the 9th... will take place on Wednesday evening...
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post #11 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-14-2005, 01:10 PM
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Re: State of Origin II - LOOK INSIDE!!!!

Right so final plays that have now been locked in...

NSW ML - $1.50 (70 units)
NSW to cover -6.5 (10 units)
OVERS 40.5 (10 units)

Come Wednesday night I could be rejoicing or in tears, we'll soon find out
post #12 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-14-2005, 01:46 PM
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Re: State of Origin II - LOOK INSIDE!!!!

Good luck BG
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post #13 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-14-2005, 03:23 PM
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Re: State of Origin II - LOOK INSIDE!!!!

what sport is this? and does betandwin or gamebookers offer this bet??
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post #14 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-15-2005, 05:45 AM
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Re: State of Origin II - LOOK INSIDE!!!!

Quote:
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what sport is this? and does betandwin or gamebookers offer this bet??

it's rugby league mate
post #15 of 33 (permalink) Old 06-15-2005, 05:46 AM
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Re: State of Origin II - LOOK INSIDE!!!!

4 more hours to go........
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