Cycling: 2009 Paris Roubaix -
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post #1 of 7 (permalink) Old 04-09-2009, 06:41 AM Thread Starter
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Cycling: 2009 Paris Roubaix

Paris Roubaix deserves a thread of it's own. Will Devolder do the double or can Boonen make it 3?

I'll have the full write up and plays sometime in the next 24 hours. A good 48 hours before the event begins. Keep watching this thread. Some good odds out there.
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post #2 of 7 (permalink) Old 04-09-2009, 02:34 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Cycling: 2009 Paris Roubaix

Quick Step have a strong team in Van Impe, Tossato, Devolder, Boonen and Chavanel
Columbia have a strong team in Hincapie, Eisel, Burghardt, Hansen, Sieberg
Quick-Step are dominating the entire peloton at the moment and Columbia think that winning sprints is the way to win races.
So the Hell of the North is on Sunday. What do we reckon?

Tom Boonen

Current Odds: $3.50/$1.60

So Tommeke this year hasnít been setting the world on fire only recording a win in Qatar and Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne. He has recently made a 2nd in E3 and a 3rd in the Dwars. He is a 2 time winner of this event in 2008 and 2005. Last week Devolder was the man for Quick-Step. This week, will Boonen be the man. His form is peaking for this event and this is a goal of his.

Stijn Devolder

Current Odds: $7/$2.50

Stijn has said he wants the double. I believe he can get the double if he wants it. He won Flanders last week in a similar way he won it last year. Powering off on a solo ride 15km before the finish. He has a strong team around him and must be considered.

Fabian Cancellara

Current Odds: $12/$3.75

Fabian has had an interrupted year with injury and is struggling to get back to what he is capable of. A former winner here in 2006. He had bad luck in Gent-Wevelgem on Wednesday having a flat at a crucial stage. We know what he is capable of, but can he get up to where he is capable of after his interrupted year? I say no, but yet again, this guy is class.

Juan Antonio Flecha

Current Odds: $12/$3.75

In the cycling world he is a huge chance. I rate him a good chance. He came 4th here in 2006 and a 2nd in 2007. He is a solid classics rider. He notched up a 3rd in Omloop Het Nieuwsblad and 10th in Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne. You think he will be up there when the decisive moves are made. Consider.

George Hincapie

Current Odds: $13/$4

He has got to be the rider with the most bad luck in this event. Last year 2 punctures. In 2006 his handlebars broke. He has 2 podium finishes here and he is fitter this year than he has ever been and riding in brilliant form at the moment. This is his 2009 goal. He will be a major chance if luck comes his way. Heís never been in this form before.

Sylvain Chavanel

Current Odds: $16/$4.75

Another one of QS firepower. His first Roubaix so he will be used as a domestique. But again could be an underdog if Boonen and Devolder are neutralized. But I donít see it.

Heinrich Haussler

Current Odds: $17/$5

Haussler has taken the cycling world by storm this year notching a few wins and a lot of podiums. He nearly beat Cav in Milan San-Remo a few weeks ago. He came second in Flanders. He is riding in good form. However I think his form has gone. Cerveloís luck might be out. Unless he grows his legs back, heíll be making up the numbers. But again, his form has been solid but every indication he has given us is that his form has gone. But with the right luck, he can figure.

Leif Hoste

Current Odds: $18/$5.25

Hoste for Silence Lotto Is a nice underdog. He was in the break last week in Flanders and looked strong. Lotto are having a shit year with only one win thanks to Evans. I donít know how Evans did it because he is a wheel sucking arsehole but anyway he is a chance.

Filippo Pozzato

Current Odds: $18/$5.25

Pozzato has come on in form over the last few weeks winning stage 1 in De Panne and winning E3. He had a crash on Wednesday so I donít know how bad he is. A solid rider but I donít think he is a chance this year due to that fact.

Martijn Maaskant

Current Odds: $18/$5.25

My roughie right here. The Garmin rider will podium or come close to it. He rode a 4th here last year and a 4th last week in Flanders. He is a solid rider who I personally think will shake this up. I will tell you right now this guy will finish ahead of Pozzato, Hoste, Haussler, Chavanel and Cancellara. That should tell you something.

Mark Cavendish

Current Odds: $22/$6.25

Not a chance in hell. He is a solid sprinter but give him 5 Ė 10 years. I know he proved the doubters wrong in Milan San-Remo and I am a huge fan of his. Always have been ever since he was a Stagliare in T-Mobile. The race is focused around Hincapie and Burghardt.

Edvald Boasson-Hagen

Current Odds: $25/$7

Had a good win on Wednesday but he is probably tired from that. Again this is centered around Hincapie and Burghardt. But could try the breakaway.

Matti Breschel

Current Odds: $30/$8.50

Saxo Banks only hope. OíGrady isnít here and Cancellara is unfit. Breschel has been riding solidly. He was 6th in Flanders and 15th in Gent-Wevelgem. He is their inform rider and might be up there when the boys are separated from the men.

Marcus Burghardt

Current Odds: $30/$8.50

Again him and Hincapie are captains. This is a good value bet if things go his way. Burghardt is in good form coming 7th in Gent-Wevelgem and he is a proven classics rider. Look for him to be at the end. Donít know how far he will go, but I think he will go far. Maybe podium? Again he is a good chance for the win.

Thor Hushovd

Current Odds: $30/$8.50

Hushovd had a crash and hurt his wrist in Flanders. Iím not even sure he is going to race yet. I donít think he will go well even if he does race. Write him off.

Greg Van Avermaet

Current Odds: $35/$9.50

Silence Lotto again are having a crap season as mentioned above. Greg is a solid classics rider.

Gert Steegmens

Current Odds: $40/$11

A solid rider. Good in classics. May be a surprise but I doubt it.

Heading down to the longer shots in Klier, Eisel, Hammond, Langeveld, Luekemens Ė All solid classics riders with good teams. Again canít see them figuring. Both Langeveld and Luekemans may make top 20 though.

So at the moment you know Iím leaning towards anyone of Boonen, Devolder, Hincapie, Flecha, Burghardt, Maaskant, Breschel.
Take out of that list your assumptions and you should find the winner. Iíll have my plays to come and long shots who may be worth considering.

I nail that list down and Boonen, Devolder, Hincapie, Flecha and Burghardt are the real winners. The winner will come out of that group you would think going on form and history and what not.

But again this race is unpredictable due to his nature. Maybe Boonen might get bad luck that George has got. Itís one of the things this race and you donít know who is going to be the leader on QS Ė you wonít know that till during the race.

Betfair do live betting I think so I will be doing that in case my selections donít look good.

At the moment my predictions are: Devolder from Hincapie and Maaskant with Flecha and Breschel fighting out 4th and 5th.

But Iím almost set on that podium. But again, Boonen canít be written off and Devolder might work for him. But I think QS aswell as the cycling public know they probably have this race in the bag. Which one takes it out? You be the judge.
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post #3 of 7 (permalink) Old 04-09-2009, 02:36 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Cycling: 2009 Paris Roubaix

I'll find some head to heads. They will be better. If you find a good one with Maaskant, pound it.
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post #4 of 7 (permalink) Old 04-09-2009, 02:38 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Cycling: 2009 Paris Roubaix

I'll find some good head to heads. If you find one with Maaskant, pound it.
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post #5 of 7 (permalink) Old 04-09-2009, 02:43 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Cycling: 2009 Paris Roubaix

Paris--Roubaix: Matchups - Thanks to Pinacle. My favourites are bold. But I'll confirm it later.

Sun 4/12 Tom Boonen vs Stijn Devolder
12:00 AM 501 Tom Boonen 1.318
502 Stijn Devolder 3.840

Sun 4/12 Martin Maaskant vs George Hincapie
12:00 AM 503 Martin Maaskant 2.120
504 George Hincapie 1.820

Sun 4/12 Matti Breschel vs Roger Hammond
12:00 AM 505 Matti Breschel 1.746
506 Roger Hammond 2.240

Sun 4/12 Marcus Burghardt vs Manuel Quinziato
12:00 AM 507 Marcus Burghardt 1.800
508 Manuel Quinziato 2.150

Sun 4/12 Martin Elmiger vs Nick Nuyens
12:00 AM 509 Martin Elmiger 2.150
510 Nick Nuyens 1.800

Sun 4/12 Serguey Ivanov vs Andreas Klier
12:00 AM 511 Serguey Ivanov 2.000
512 Andreas Klier 1.909

Sun 4/12 Leif Hoste vs Juan A Flecha
12:00 AM 513 Leif Hoste 2.550
514 Juan A Flecha 1.606

Sun 4/12 Staf Scheirlinckx vs Kevin Van Impe
12:00 AM 515 Staf Scheirlinckx 1.952
516 Kevin Van Impe 1.952

Sun 4/12 Johnny Hoogerland vs Gerben Lowik
12:00 AM 517 Johnny Hoogerland 1.800
518 Gerben Lowik 2.150

Sun 4/12 Kristoff Goddart vs Sebastian Hinault
12:00 AM 519 Kristoff Goddart 1.676
520 Sebastian Hinault 2.380

Sun 4/12 Niki Terpstra vs Joost Posthuma
12:00 AM 521 Niki Terpstra 2.080
522 Joost Posthuma 1.847

Sun 4/12 Murillo Fischer vs Wouter Weylandt
12:00 AM 523 Murillo Fischer 1.645
524 Wouter Weylandt 2.450

Sun 4/12 Pedro Horrillo vs Johann Vansummeren
12:00 AM 525 Pedro Horrillo 1.952
526 Johann Vansummeren 1.952

Sun 4/12 Mikhail Ignatiev vs Svein Tuft
12:00 AM 527 Mikhail Ignatiev 1.952
528 Svein Tuft 1.952

Sun 4/12 Edvald Boasson Hagen vs Mathew Goss
12:00 AM 529 Edvald Boasson Hagen 1.800
530 Mathew Goss 2.150

Sun 4/12 Aurelien Clerc vs Jose J Rojas
12:00 AM 531 Aurelien Clerc 1.800
532 Jose J Rojas 2.150

Sun 4/12 Andreas Klier vs Frederic Guesdon
12:00 AM 533 Andreas Klier 2.250
534 Frederic Guesdon 1.741

Sun 4/12 Juan A Flecha vs Martijn Maasskant
12:00 AM 535 Juan A Flecha 1.952
536 Martijn Maasskant 1.952

Sun 4/12 Leif Hoste vs Stijn Devolder
12:00 AM 537 Leif Hoste 1.952
538 Stijn Devolder 1.952

Sun 4/12 George Hincapie vs Tom Boonen
12:00 AM 539 George Hincapie 3.410
540 Tom Boonen 1.383

Sun 4/12 Thor Hushovd vs Bernhard Eisel
12:00 AM 541 Thor Hushovd 2.260
542 Bernhard Eisel 1.735

Sun 4/12 Sylvain Chavanel vs Fabian Cancellara
12:00 AM 543 Sylvain Chavanel 1.699
544 Fabian Cancellara 2.330
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post #6 of 7 (permalink) Old 04-11-2009, 02:33 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Cycling: 2009 Paris Roubaix

Okay so after thinking about this much!

1.5 units on Devolder to win @ $7
2 units on Devolder to place @ $2.50

.5 units on Hincapie to win @ $14
1 unit on Hincapie to place @ $4

1 unit on Maaskant to place @ $4.75

.5 win on Burghardt @ $26
.5 place on Burghardt @ $7

Pretty clear cut. I'm going reasonably small hoping I can pull off a Devolder win or Devolder place or a Hincapie win and place.

It's pretty much set based on whether or not Hincapie has bike troubles. This is a clear cut goal for Columbia and Hincapie. He isn't retiring until he wins PR.

Columbia and QS have the strongest teams there. Boonen will be shut out of it like Flanders. I'm going against him and taking the risk that it happens again. And QS might be eyeing Hincapie too much that Burghardt goes off the front and gets away ala O'Grady in 2007. Also to note. Team Columbia won Gent-Wevelgem on Wednesday. Albasini gave them a win on Thursday in the tour of the Basque Country. Pinotti gave them another win Friday. Monfort was in the early break and Pinotti counter attacked when it was caught. So Columbia might be finally realising that there is other ways to win than bringing Cavendish to the line. And the confidence is up.

I'm pretty big on Maaskant putting in a good performance here. My predictions are Devolder or Hincapie and third will be Maaskant. 4th will be Flecha and 5th will be Breschel.

Onto the head to head market. There is one big play I like.

10 units Hincapie over Pozzato @ $1.85 - I can't see Katusha dominating for Pozzato and Hincapie is going to finish top 3. I reckon this is a steal.

3 units Cancellara over Chavanel @ $2.18 - Cancellara had bike troubles on Wednesday and is trying to recapture form. Chavanel on the otherhand is riding for Boonen and Devolder. Brilliant odds. Don't be surprised if Cancellara wins.

4 units Burghardt over Quinziato @ $1.80 - Burghardt showed me on Wednesday he is strong. Has apparently hired 4 men to carry spare wheels at the main parts of the course on top of the Columbia staff. Interesting thought.

2 units Devolder over Boonen @ $3.26 - Again, I am throwing all my eggs on Devolder here. If he wins, I do good.

Boonen, for the love of God. Don't win!
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post #7 of 7 (permalink) Old 04-12-2009, 09:20 AM
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Re: Cycling: 2009 Paris Roubaix

Devolder should get a safe Top15 or Top10 finish, but I'm not sure if he can win it.
Hincapie disappointed me last weekend. A top3-finish would shock me. But I agree that he should have Pozzato under control.
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