2009 - Paris Nice - MensTennisForums.com

 
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post #1 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-06-2009, 09:26 AM Thread Starter
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2009 - Paris Nice

contador will want to prove he is a strong man and should be leader in july so he might try something. However im looking at my favourite spaniard. Luis Leon Sanchez E/W - $9/3.25
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post #2 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-07-2009, 01:47 AM Thread Starter
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Re: 2009 - Paris Nice

Okay I posted that on the phone last night.

Bets

Overall

1 unit - Luis Leon Sanchez to win @ $11
3 units - Luis Leon Sanchez to podium @ $3.25

LLS is a very strong rider. Performed well here last year. Whilst Contador needs to prove he is the man for Astana, there is value here in Sanchez. He will descend like crazy on some of the climbs near the end of the race and thus will get time over everyone.

Head to Heads

2 units - Sanchez over Chavenel @ $1.85 - Again, Sanchez is going to come on the podium. Chavanel won't. Value

4 units - Sanchez over Colom @ $1.72 - Excellent value here
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post #3 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-07-2009, 01:53 AM Thread Starter
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Re: 2009 - Paris Nice

Stage 1

9km time trial - technical. Therefore will suit guys like Miller, Wiggins, Martin etc. I think it will be too long for Wiggins.

As an outside value - Marco Pinotti is a good bet. He is a solid time trialist and Team Columbia riders are solid this year and have put in excellent performances on the bike. Plus, they have an upmarket time trial bike which has an edge on every other team. Bordering illegal but not illegal yet.

Therefore

.5 unit Pinotti @ $34
1 unit Martin @ $7

Head to Heads

2 units Millar over Contador @ $1.80 - Millar is a superior time trialist.
1 unit Martin over Larson @ $1.95 - Going the edge here in Martin.
1 unit Evans over Monfort @ $2.20 - Can't go past the value here even though this is Cadel's first race of the season.
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post #4 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-09-2009, 08:50 AM Thread Starter
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Re: 2009 - Paris Nice

contador was a **** last night. How the fuck can a 62kg climber destroy wiggins a track pursuit world record olympic champion by 7 seconds. 7 seconds in a 9km time trial is an arse kicking. All the specialists were no match. Contador wins the tour this year and vuelta if he doesnt get busted for drugs.
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post #5 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-09-2009, 08:56 AM Thread Starter
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Re: 2009 - Paris Nice

stage 2 - lorenzetto to win at $4 - the form sprinter in this field. 1 unit on him. I reckon voeckler today will be in a break and if a break succeeds with weather and cross wind, im putting quarter of a unit on him at 150-1 - also putting a quarter unit on nocentini at 21-1. Good luck
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post #6 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-11-2009, 07:14 AM Thread Starter
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Re: 2009 - Paris Nice

no luck on stage 2. Stage 4 tonight sees about 5 3cat climbs. Im gearing up for friday's stage where they finish on a cat1 - pound contador with what you have. Anyway tonight. I see a break lasting. I dont see the main guys over exerting themselves here. Therefore someone that might try is moncoutie. He is a breakaway king and he is 13 mins down so not a threat. I reckon he tries tonight. Moncoutie to win at $12. Also a head to head i found and like. Luis sanchez at 1.85 over monfort
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post #7 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-12-2009, 05:53 AM Thread Starter
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Re: 2009 - Paris Nice

Okay! So I havn't got a stage winner yet. Doesn't bother me. The fact that Sanchez will finish top 3 and the head to heads are good enough for me. These stage wins are only small plays. I'm ready to pound Contador for stage 6 with all I have. However, I see some value again in tonight's stage. A break may succeed but again, it may be a bunch sprint. If A break succeeds, I am thinking Moncoutie, Voeckler and Burghardt try. It's their type of terrain. Plus I think guys like Contador will want to rest for tomorrow's monster stage so it will be up for the sprinters teams to chase and they might not be able to handle those climbs. So what do we have for tonight. Small plays on the following

Moncoutie @ $34
Voeckler @ $26
Burghardt @ $31

Lorenzetto @ $7 incase of a bunch sprint.
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post #8 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-12-2009, 05:56 AM Thread Starter
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Re: 2009 - Paris Nice

Also playing Stage 2 of Tirreno - Adriatico

Cavendish @ $4.50
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post #9 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-12-2009, 05:57 AM Thread Starter
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Re: 2009 - Paris Nice

Back to Paris Nice - it's going to be a bigger play on Lorenzetto - 1 unit.

I look at last nights stage and the **** finished third so he can obviously climb and still have a sprint. With about 80km from the last cat 1 climb, if the sprinters teams can get their things going, he is a good chance.
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post #10 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-12-2009, 06:04 AM Thread Starter
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Re: 2009 - Paris Nice

Fuck that shit with Cavendish. Only putting a small on that. Going large on Bennati. This is a quote from Piva, Columbia's director for this race.

Tirreno-Adriatico is also Mark Cavendish's first European stage race of the season, but Piva says they will be looking more at the overall classification than for stage wins.

If he is in a position to win, he'll try and win but based on this, Bennati @ $5 is value.
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post #11 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-13-2009, 01:39 AM Thread Starter
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Re: 2009 - Paris Nice

So close with Voekler - came second. Oh well. Sitting pretty ahead of today's stage.

Alberto Contador to win Stage 6 - 10 units @ $1.70

I've been waiting for this all week long. It's a very good bet. One which shouldn't lose. Contador should blitz them up Mont Vetouxs little sister.

In Torrino-Adriatica playing Bennati to win @ $5.50 and Pettachi @ $4.75 - 1 unit on each. Good luck!
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post #12 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 01:59 AM Thread Starter
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Re: 2009 - Paris Nice

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post
Okay I posted that on the phone last night.

Bets

Overall

1 unit - Luis Leon Sanchez to win @ $11
3 units - Luis Leon Sanchez to podium @ $3.25

LLS is a very strong rider. Performed well here last year. Whilst Contador needs to prove he is the man for Astana, there is value here in Sanchez. He will descend like crazy on some of the climbs near the end of the race and thus will get time over everyone.

Head to Heads

2 units - Sanchez over Chavenel @ $1.85 - Again, Sanchez is going to come on the podium. Chavanel won't. Value

4 units - Sanchez over Colom @ $1.72 - Excellent value here
FUCKING OATH DOGGY. LETS TAKE THAT SHIT TO THE FUCKING BANK
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post #13 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 02:00 AM Thread Starter
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Re: 2009 - Paris Nice

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post
Stage 1

9km time trial - technical. Therefore will suit guys like Miller, Wiggins, Martin etc. I think it will be too long for Wiggins.

As an outside value - Marco Pinotti is a good bet. He is a solid time trialist and Team Columbia riders are solid this year and have put in excellent performances on the bike. Plus, they have an upmarket time trial bike which has an edge on every other team. Bordering illegal but not illegal yet.

Therefore

.5 unit Pinotti @ $34
1 unit Martin @ $7

Head to Heads

2 units Millar over Contador @ $1.80 - Millar is a superior time trialist.
1 unit Martin over Larson @ $1.95 - Going the edge here in Martin.
1 unit Evans over Monfort @ $2.20 - Can't go past the value here even though this is Cadel's first race of the season.
Lost lost lost won won
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post #14 of 14 (permalink) Old 03-16-2009, 02:08 AM Thread Starter
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Re: 2009 - Paris Nice

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post
So close with Voekler - came second. Oh well. Sitting pretty ahead of today's stage.

Alberto Contador to win Stage 6 - 10 units @ $1.70

I've been waiting for this all week long. It's a very good bet. One which shouldn't lose. Contador should blitz them up Mont Vetouxs little sister.

In Torrino-Adriatica playing Bennati to win @ $5.50 and Pettachi @ $4.75 - 1 unit on each. Good luck!
Easy as piss
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