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post #121 of 133 (permalink) Old 04-05-2009, 03:11 PM
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Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

unreal

finished 4th

fucker
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post #122 of 133 (permalink) Old 04-05-2009, 03:11 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Haussler for Roubaix. He has proven tonight he can fight on Cobbles. He is in the form of his life.
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post #123 of 133 (permalink) Old 04-05-2009, 03:27 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post
2008 Depanne

Posthuma (DNF Ronde)
Backstedt (43rd Ronde)
Devolder (1st Ronde)
Hincapie (5th Ronde)

Quinziato (37th Ronde)

2008 Ronde

Devolder (3rd in Depanne
Nuyens (DNS Depanne)
Flecha (DNS Depanne)
Ballan (16th in Depanne)
Hincapie (4th in Depanne)
2007 DePanne

Ballan (1st Ronde)
Posthuma (DNS Ronde)
Roesems (39th Ronde)
Matveyev (DNS Ronde)
Gusev (5th Ronde)

2007 Ronde

Ballan (1st in Depanne)
Hoste (36th in Depanne)
Paolini (10th in Depanne)
Kroon (DNS Depanne)
Gusev (5th in Depanne)

2006 DePanne

Hoste (2nd Ronde)
Eisel (15th Ronde)
Sanchez (DNS Ronde)
Rosseler (DNS Ronde)
Hincapie (3rd Ronde)

2006 Ronde

Boonen (DNF Depanne)
Hoste (1st in Depanne)
Hincapie (5th in Depanne)
Van Petegem (DNF Depanne)
Ballan (34th in Depanne)

2005 DePanne

Devolder (35th Ronde)
Ballan (6th Ronde)
Mattan (17th Ronde)
Sanchez (DNS Ronde)
Petito (5th Ronde)

2005 Ronde

Boonen (DNF Depanne)
Klier (DNF Depanne)
Van Petegem (DNF Depanne)
Zabel (DNS Depanne)
Petito (5th Depanne)

That's what I was mentioning above with this event being a good form guide for Flanders.

So I'm adding the extra position in for 6th and hoping at least Pozzato does continue this trend and hopefully Maaskant joins him top 6 therefore winning that head to head bet.

So this trend is a reason why I'm big on Pozzato. The other reason is he has got his form up right for this event. Form counts in an event as hard as this. I give Boonen a better chance of winning Roubaix than winning Flanders.
So the trend continues

De Panne 2009

1 Frederik Willems (Bel) Liquigas 12.15.50
2 Filippo Pozzato (Ita) Team Katusha 0.29
3 Borut Bozic (Slo) Vacansoleil Pro Cycling Team 0.45
4 Steve Chainel (Fra) BBox Bouygues Telecom 0.47
5 Marco Finetto (Ita) CSF Group - Navigare 0.49
6 Martijn Maaskant (Ned) Garmin - Slipstream 0.51

Flanders 2009

1 Stijn Devolder (Bel) Quick Step
2 Heinrich Haussler (Ger) Cervelo Test Team
3 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Silence-Lotto
4 Filippo Pozzato (Ita) Team Katusha
5 Martijn Maaskant (Ned) Garmin - Slipstream


-----------

Keep an eye on this interesting trend for next year.
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post #124 of 133 (permalink) Old 04-05-2009, 05:21 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

For those looking for a long shot Quinziato might be a good play at triple figures. Liquigas are quietly confident with their team for Flanders and he will be their leader. Take with that the fact of the above history, then he's worth a shot.

.2 unit to win @ $101 - LOST
.3 unit to place @ $21 - LOST

Upping the stake on Pozzato to 2 units.

So the final plays read.

2 units Pozzato to win @ $6.75 - LOST
5 units Pozzato to place @ $2.55 - LOST

5 units Haussler under 9.5 @ $1.72 - WON

.5 units on the win for Hoste @ $17 - LOST
.5 units on the place for Hoste @ $5 - LOST

3 units Maaskant over Langeveld @ $2.06 - WON

3 units Chavanel over Klier @ $1.68 . LOST

2 units on Hincapie over Flecha - LOST

2 units on Devolder over Avermaet @ $1.85 - WON

--------------------------------------------------
So how it turned out in the end.

Devolder made a decisive move in a repeat of last year. My long shot Quinziato was up there and was looking good for a podium until the peloton caught his group of 3 consisting of Chavanel and Van Heck with 3km to go. So very close for that long shot to get up.

Haussler attacks in the last 600m to get second and Pozzato came 5th - just missing out on third in the sprint for 3rd.

I've preached this to lots of people over the last few weeks that Haussler wins Roubaix. Today he has proven he is strong enough on Cobbles.

Not a desirable result like MSR and Paris-Nice but you can't win all the time.
And the year is still young. This time last year I only had 1100 next to my name profit wise until I cashed in on the Giro and Tour. This time I'm cashing in early.

Before this event in only a handful of races I was up 70.78 units - $7078

23.5 units staked - $2,350

8.48 won - $848

Therefore a loss of 15.02 units $1502

So for the year I am up 55.76 - $5,576
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post #125 of 133 (permalink) Old 04-05-2009, 05:35 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Paris-Roubaix is getting an individual thread as it's prestige.

Already have a play lined up in the Vuelta al Pais Vasco.

At the start of this week I'm up 55.76 units.

I may do a write-up tomorrow for this one. But probably won't have time. Pretty straight forward.

1 unit LLS to win @ $15
4 units LLS to place @ $4.50

Again like Paris-Nice. Even though Contador is in this and some other strong riders, this event suits LLS. There is no mountain top finish for starters. LLS is an attacking rider and a good descender and 2 of these stages have climbs close to the end which he will do what he is famous for. The time trial at the end will be the test.

I expect LLS to probably win stage 1 so if I can get odds for stage 1, i'll play him. Betfair don't have him in the market.

He is up against Samuel Sanchez, Sastre, Rogers, Kirchen, Lovkvist, Contador, Evans, Cunego etc. Cunego will be looking for Amstel Gold and La Flech Wallone. Evans sucks. Rogers will be fine tuning form. Kichen coming back from injury. Sastre not so strong team.

Sam Sanchez, Lovkvist and Contador are his main challengers.

1. Luis Leon Sanchez
2. Alberto Contador
3. Samuel Sanchez

I will have a full writeup for Gent-Wevelgem in the next day or 2 but you already know who I'm backing. Cavendish.
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post #126 of 133 (permalink) Old 04-06-2009, 01:49 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Stage 1

0.5 unit LLS to win @ $10

4.5 units LLS over Cadel Evans @ $2 - Are these odds right? An attacking rider V a wheel sucking asshole? I'm on this anyday of the week.
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post #127 of 133 (permalink) Old 04-06-2009, 04:32 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post
Stage 1

0.5 unit LLS to win @ $10

4.5 units LLS over Cadel Evans @ $2 - Are these odds right? An attacking rider V a wheel sucking asshole? I'm on this anyday of the week.
Thankyou Luis.

9 units back on the 15 i lost on Sunday night.
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post #128 of 133 (permalink) Old 04-06-2009, 04:34 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post

1 unit LLS to win @ $15
4 units LLS to place @ $4.50
That is actually

1 unit to win @ $21
4 units to place @ $4.50

When sportingbet got their act together at about 6pm on Monday, I jumped on Sanchez there at 21. Good odds.

Now I don't think I will be playing stage 2. Or stage 3 or stage 4. I will be playing Gent next and probably Roubaix. I might play the time trial on Friday. See what the odds are.

Sanchez will podium now - pretty confident of that; So will sit back and wait to collect.
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post #129 of 133 (permalink) Old 04-07-2009, 04:32 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

2009 - Gent-Wevelgem

Odds suggest it. I suggest it. Cavendish should shit this in and get his 9th win of the season.

5 units Cavendish to win @ $2.75

1 unit Hushovd to place @ $5.75

4 units Pozzato over Boonen @ $1.85 - Boonen will be concentrating for Roubaix so he may either a)pull out half way through or not even worry about the sprint. Solid bet.

Good luck!
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post #130 of 133 (permalink) Old 04-08-2009, 07:54 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Stage 3 - Vuelta Pais Vasco

Similar stage to stage 1 but harder. Cat 1 climb at the end.

I think Lulu might win this but so might Contador.

So therefore

3 units Contador @ $3.50
.5 units Lulu @ $15

2009 - Gent-Wevelgem

Final plays.

Hushovd is out. So makes things different so that play is void. So therefore.

Odds suggest it. I suggest it. Cavendish should shit this in and get his 9th win of the season.

5 units Cavendish to win @ $2.75

1 unit Ciolek to podium @ $9.50

4 units Pozzato over Boonen @ $1.85 - Boonen will be concentrating for Roubaix so he may either a)pull out half way through or not even worry about the sprint. Solid bet.

Ciolek to do something substantial tonight.

Good luck!
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post #131 of 133 (permalink) Old 04-09-2009, 07:40 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post
Stage 3 - Vuelta Pais Vasco

Similar stage to stage 1 but harder. Cat 1 climb at the end.

I think Lulu might win this but so might Contador.

So therefore

3 units Contador @ $3.50
.5 units Lulu @ $15

2009 - Gent-Wevelgem

Final plays.

Hushovd is out. So makes things different so that play is void. So therefore.

Odds suggest it. I suggest it. Cavendish should shit this in and get his 9th win of the season.

5 units Cavendish to win @ $2.75

1 unit Ciolek to podium @ $9.50

4 units Pozzato over Boonen @ $1.85 - Boonen will be concentrating for Roubaix so he may either a)pull out half way through or not even worry about the sprint. Solid bet.

Ciolek to do something substantial tonight.

Good luck!
That win of Contador makes the night a loss of 2 units.

Tonight stage 4

Sprinters stage if Freire and Davis can be arsed.

Freire to win @ $6 - Odds too goo to ignore. 2 units. 3 units for Freire to place @ $2.50

Good luck!
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post #132 of 133 (permalink) Old 04-10-2009, 02:20 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Lost on the above. Couldn't get on the place. Could only get on the win as sportingbet refused place betting.

Today Stage 5 in pais vasco

.2 Monfort @ $21
.2 De La Fuente @ $31
.2 Wegmann @ $19
.2 Perez @ $51
.2 Martinez @ $21
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post #133 of 133 (permalink) Old 04-11-2009, 05:44 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Bolar's Cycling 2009 Betting Thread

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post
Lost on the above. Couldn't get on the place. Could only get on the win as sportingbet refused place betting.

Today Stage 5 in pais vasco

.2 Monfort @ $21
.2 De La Fuente @ $31
.2 Wegmann @ $19
.2 Perez @ $51
.2 Martinez @ $21
Had the right idea. Had the wrong rides.

Martinez, De La Fuente and Monfort were in the main break but Monfort went in the break with guys like Rodriguez which was never going to last. Perez tried the break too. In the end the stage was won by Pinotti who counterattacked when the break was caught.

Anyway tonight. Team Columbia has had 3 wins in 3 nights. Boasson Hagen in Gent, Albasini on thursday in Pais Vasco and then Pinotti last night. Can they do it again?

Time trial tonight. Contador as you would expect is the short price favourite but I like Rogers chance.

Rogers to win @ $9 - .5 units.

Good luck!
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