Re: Dutch Premier Division 15/9 - 17/9
RKC Waalwijk v Den Haag
Battle of the weakest: #17 vs #18. RKC got one point, while ADO Den Haag is still pointless. RKC was totally outplayed at Utrecht last weekend and lost 5-0; ADO played an okay match against NAC, but lost due personal mistakes. In the past, this game went anywhere and this time it could go anywhere. They are not much different in experience and quality. RKC has to revanche their big loss and ADO is looking for their first point.
Excelsior v Willem II
Excelsior started well this season, suprisingly well actually with 4 points out of 3 games. Willem II got a win vs Utrecht, lost to Heerenveen and PSV. Last weekend, we had the same kind of matchup. Excelsior - Heerenveen, I was really confidend that Heerenveen would win that match; got screwed over by a early red card and two penalty kicks. I can not see what there is changed now. In my opinion Excelsior has been lucky, definitely last week. Willem II got a good win over Utrecht, was outplayed at Heerenveen (can happen) and a loss vs PSV with 10 players after 45min isn't a suprise either. So, the odds I was expecting are 2.40 - 3.10 - 2.50 or so. But Willem II above 3.00? This are the matches and it is the time now for them to grab points and they should be able to.
There are some important players missing (van Imschoot is injured and Kargbo is suspended), but they should be able to get at least a draw in Rotterdam.
Heracles v Utrecht
Both teams with 4 points; Heracles was doing well last season and they seem to be continuing their form this season. Utrecht started with a loss and bad draw, but won last week with 5-0. Both teams like to attack and both are playing well, creating chances. I wouldn't really know what kind of result we can expect, but I would lean a bit towards Utrecht. Not sure what to do with this game though.
Vitesse v NAC Breda
Both teams with 3 points, 1 win and 2 losses. Vitesse started well versus Sparta, played well versus AZ but lost and was totally outplayed by Ajax. NAC was totally crushed by AZ, played ok versus Ajax but lost and beaten ADO. So there is no suprise here yet; they won the game they should have won and lost the games of which it was expected. I rate Vitesse, definitely at home, higher and stronger then NAC. I think Vitesse will be able to win and keep the 3 points at home. NAC is still unpredictable depending on Leonardo, but in the end, it will be a home victory.
Then another point, I don't really like stats and results from the past, because clubs, players and coaches change. But in the meetings between these clubs, from the last 10 matches, there were 9 overs. So I might be taking that one, because Vitesse had 3 out 3 overs and NAC 2 out of 3 (one was 2-0).
PSV Eindhoven v Feyenoord
The big match from the weekend. It will be interesting how this game will be played as both teams cannot afford losing more points if Ajax and AZ keep on winning. PSV is still a bit searching after they sold Vennegoor and Ooijer. They bought Kluivert, who is expected to start on Sunday, and Kromkamp, who in my opinion played really bad vs Liverpool for the Champions League. This year PSV is a lot different then last year. Cocu is getting older, Farfan has been barely in front of the goal and the quality of their defence is decreased, although Salcido is a good purchase. Ronald Koeman is the same coach as always, very defensively thinking, although he plays with 3 strikers, but still.
Feyenoord on the other hand; they got their first win last weekend and scored for the first (and second, third, fourth) time. But they were lucky; very lucky. A not given penalty for Sparta while a undeserved penalty was given for Feyenoord (dive) made it 1-3, but it should have been 2-2 at that point. Sparta was also the better playing team. This could be one of those matches were Feyenoord suddenly can be the better team. It also depends on tonight, the result and perhaps injuries in the UEFA Cup game.
I am not going to touch this game; to much on stake for both teams, to unpredictable how they are going to cope with the pressure. Oh, and small detail; Ronald Koeman of PSV and Erwin Koeman of Feyenoord; yup, the coaches are brothers.
Roda JC v Ajax Amsterdam
Roda JC did well in the first weekends, they are still unbeatable; but it were games where they definitely had to take the 3 points. The 2-2 at Twente was a really weird one, the goals. Ajax is "hot". It started okay versus PSV and Kopenhagen (very unlucky). It was not so well versus NAC, but after sunday it seems nothing can go wrong. They were having fun on the field, Stam is leading the defence, Roger and Gabri played perfect to give Sneijder all the space he needs and Sneijder is taking that space totally. Huntelaar finally scored and Rosales and Babel are playing well near the sidelines. Tonight they have to play an UEFA Cup match, so I am kinda worried about injuries, but normally they should win that match and then continue the run on sunday.
AZ Alkmaar v Twente
AZ still has not lost any points and they are a strong squad. Twente won versus PSV, got a draw vs Roda and lost to Heracles. Perhaps AZ is getting a bit weaker, they didn't play that well on sunday, but then they are still able to win the match. And that is the feeling I have for this match as well; Perhaps Twente can make it difficult for AZ, but in the end, the 3 points should be staying in Alkmaar.
Heerenveen v NEC
Heerenveen started the season well, with two wins but lost last weekend. NEC is still without a win and got one point. I would lean towards Heerenveen, but after last weekend and the fact that they play UEFA Cup tonight, I think I am not picking this match.
Sparta Rotterdam v Groningen
Sparta, probably still struggling against relegation this season, although they play decent matches. Groningen is strong at home and weak away from home. I think sunday is the time to change this. Sparta played well versus Feyenoord, Utrecht and Vitesse, but didn't win. Groningen is playing UEFA Cup since years and that is a big boost for the team. Last sunday they conceded an early own goal (15 seconds!) but came back strong and won 2-1. I know the bad form in away matches for Groningen, but I am tempted to take them, especially if they are getting a good result tonight.
The picks: (My DPR: 11-4, +29)
Excelsior - Willem II 2 @ 3.20 (Gamebookers) 3/10.
Excelsior - Willem II X2 @ 1.70 (Nordic bet) 5/10.
Vitesse - NAC 1 @ 1.85 (Gamebookers) 5/10.
Vitesse - NAC over 2,5 @ 1.60 (Expekt.com) 7/10.
Roda JC - Ajax 2 @ 1.85 (Gamebookers) 5/10.
AZ - FC Twente 1 @ 1.45 (Expekt.com) 6/10.
Sparta - FC Groningen 2 @ 2.55 (Betsson) 3/10.