January 4th... - MensTennisForums.com

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post #1 of 25 (permalink) Old 01-04-2006, 01:07 PM Thread Starter
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January 4th...

Strasbourg v Lyon @ 1.57

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post #2 of 25 (permalink) Old 01-04-2006, 01:25 PM
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Re: January 4th...

Sorry mate...after my write-up hadn't noticed you posted. Still we agree on the Lyon pick

Edit: let's move it into here:

Some nice French Ligue 1 matches tonight after their Winter Break has ended:

Strasbourg v Lyon: Lyon ended 2005 badly drawing 0-0 in the derby at St. Etienne in a match they did little in then losing their unbeaten record at home against Lille in a defeat that would have badly hurt their ego. Of course Lyon are the best team in the league, they have the best squad and are the only team who look capable of picking up 3 points on the road. Today they face bottom club Strasbourg who struggle for goals. They have only scored 4 goals in 10 home matches in only 3 matches. Although winless they have drawn 5 (4 0-0 draws) of the matches. Lyon with Carew, Fred, Govou and free-kicks from Juninho are the team they would least like to face.

Medium bet: Lyon to beat Strasbourg @ 1.65 (Interwetten)
Take a small cover on 0-0 result @ 9.00 (Gamebookers)



That's the main bet and kicks off earlier than the rest at 18:30CET. Want some more?

Lille v Ajaccio: After that win against Lyon, the home side will look to get moving up the table and qualify for the Champions League once again. Their home form is strong conceding only 3 goals so opposition have failed to score in 8 of 10 Lille home matches, with all6 wins being to nil. Ajaccio before last match at home to PSG (PSG coach was sacked after that match) had gone 8 matches without finding the net. They have the worst scoring record in the league and every match they have lost away from home they have failed to score so this is an interesting contrast. The odds for the home win are the similar prices to Lyon and can be taken here, although I like some other bets, with either one being played depending on your boldness:

Lille to keep a clean sheet @ 2.01 (Gamebookers)
Lille to win to nil @ 2.43 (Gamebookers)


And finally worth trying a double with: Lyon + Lille @ 2.48 (Interwetten)

Good luck

Last edited by Dollars & Cents; 01-04-2006 at 02:04 PM.
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post #3 of 25 (permalink) Old 01-04-2006, 01:34 PM
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Re: January 4th...

PSG @ 1.57

LILLE @ 1.48

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post #4 of 25 (permalink) Old 01-04-2006, 02:04 PM Thread Starter
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Re: January 4th...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dollars & Cents
Sorry mate...after my write-up hadn't noticed you posted. Still we agree on the Lyon pick
thats ok i also like lille, PSG, and St. etinne... but i still need only one more soccer bet if lyon wins... lyon match is early plus i dont want to lose lyon at that rate the later matches i'm still deciding what to pick out of the 3

Last edited by mini bad gambler; 01-04-2006 at 02:08 PM.
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post #5 of 25 (permalink) Old 01-04-2006, 02:13 PM
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Re: January 4th...

Quote:
Originally Posted by mini bad gambler
... but i still need only one more soccer bet if lyon wins... lyon match is early plus i dont want to lose lyon at that rate the later matches i'm still deciding what to put out of the 3
Why do you need another soccer bet? Sometimes it is better just to enjoy the profit (especially if Lyon win ).

I think PSG, Lyon and Lille all look good for the win. First match after the Winter Break all sides will want to restart well. But playing all 3 is risky as this is the French league and is never that predictable. Saying that I do think PSG and Lille look good though.

I posted on Lille clean sheet/win to nil market which I think has extreme value much better than fixed odds. The French league is a notoriously low-scoring league, although these type of bets are better in the long-run and not for the faint-hearted (i.e. checking Livesore every 2 minutes ). Also Pauletta to score anytime for PSG if you can find it would seem a decent punt.

Good luck in whatever you decide.
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post #6 of 25 (permalink) Old 01-04-2006, 02:16 PM Thread Starter
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Re: January 4th...

my aim is to make 100$ a day... i already have 100$ on lyon @ 1.57 which will give me 57$ profit if it wins... still i need to make 43$ thats why i'm thinking i need to put another 100$ bet on either lille or psg or st .etinne
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post #7 of 25 (permalink) Old 01-04-2006, 02:42 PM
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Re: January 4th...

That's pretty ambitious stuff...and if you manage to meet those targets consistently you are doing very well. However, I have a couple of concerns (and correct me if i'm way out with any assumptions - as I've only been on this forum a little while):

Example: You bet $100 on Lyon and then $100 on Lille. So that's $200 bet altogether. So you could be either $100 profit, $50 loss or $200 loss with only 2 selections. If both win you will be cursing not playing them in a double @ 2.25 (very risky) but you could have made your objective with half the investment.

The main problem with playing flat stake at those odds (1.50) is that you need to win 67% of the time just to break-even. So are those matches you chosen Lyon, Lille, PSG, St. Etienne 67% likely to win as the price is suggesting. Added to that you are taking a price of 1.57 for the Lyon win which can be found at least on average 5% higher (high of 1.66 @ 5dimes). How do you calculate how likely a team is going to win? Very difficult but there are numerical methods that can be used.

If you are managing to hit your targets then you are doing very well and picking wisely. OK, its probably more likely you don't always play at these odds, but if you play lower then the hit-rate increases even more. Anyway, I've said enough so good luck as I am on Lyon too. If you want my suggestion on the other pick either PSG or Lille (St. Etienne don't seem too good to me).
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post #8 of 25 (permalink) Old 01-04-2006, 04:20 PM Thread Starter
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Re: January 4th...

different people have different method of gambling. the percentage analysis is for people who invest a lot of money on a single bet. i go by plain statstics. for example
strasbourg draw lyon
5.00 3.20 1.57

these are things i go for.

lyon away form? - so far good
lyon with full squad - most of them yes
lyon motivated - yes from their managers and players interview
next match is important - after 4 days Coupe de France against a lower divinsion team. if they had a CL match they might rest key player but not for this cup competition
last match played - vs lille at home and they lost 1-3 so they got something to prove in this match
last few meeting between the 2 teams-
07-08-05 Ligue 1 Lyon v Strasbourg 1 - 0
19-03-05 Ligue 1 Strasbourg v Lyon 0 - 1

the same way u can do it for strasbourg. trust me i have watched only around 5-6 full soccer matches all my life and i dont turst in percentage calculation. all i do is this and conclude will lyon win or not--- YES or NO is the only choice and i picked YES

what is the use of doing all the % calculation when all it matters is motivation and determination of the players. yesterday tommy robredo said he is fully focused of doing well in this tournament and look what he did and what is the % calculation for Mario Ancic to lose 3 match points and then lose the whole game yesterday??? thats why i dont break my head too much into a single bet. do simple analysis and then risk only the money which u can afford to lose i started with 100$ on december 26th after 9 days i have $920 not including the money which robredo the tit robbed me yesterday ($220). i not here to gamble.. i am here to win. so as long as the bet looks safe i dont care about the odds. this system works fine so far with me so i'm gonna stick with it no matter what others say
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post #9 of 25 (permalink) Old 01-04-2006, 04:24 PM Thread Starter
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Re: January 4th...

lyon 111111111111
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post #10 of 25 (permalink) Old 01-04-2006, 04:44 PM
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Re: January 4th...

Man City v Spurs - under 2.5 goals at 1.66

We can't score away from home, but our defence is solid. I fancy it to be low scoring, hopefully a 1-0 win to Spurs

Good luck
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post #11 of 25 (permalink) Old 01-04-2006, 05:00 PM Thread Starter
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Re: January 4th...

22222222 lyon
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post #12 of 25 (permalink) Old 01-04-2006, 05:35 PM Thread Starter
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Re: January 4th...

33333333 lyon
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post #13 of 25 (permalink) Old 01-04-2006, 05:40 PM Thread Starter
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Re: January 4th...

D Coruna v Osasuna @ 1.90

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post #14 of 25 (permalink) Old 01-04-2006, 06:17 PM Thread Starter
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Re: January 4th...

11111111 D coruna
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post #15 of 25 (permalink) Old 01-04-2006, 06:18 PM
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Re: January 4th...

Easy Lyon win

Mini BG: I didn't want to appear to criticise your methods and everything you say is correct and as long as it is working then good luck to you. What is also clear is that you know how to control money and staking which is as important as odds and percentages/motivation as you say.

Keep the selections coming and good luck with the Spanish game.
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