Twente - Qarabagh
Pick: 5/10 Qarabagh not to score @ 1.83 (Unibet)
Qarabagh are the big unknown factor here for me. I know that defender and midfielder Elnur Allahverdiyev and Emin Imamaliyev are out, just like their captain Rashad Sadiqov (defender). The Azerbaijan side did great to get pas Honka and especially Rosenborg in the preliminaries, but this should be the end of the road for them. Twente will be looking to finish this off at home and Twente should really be several levels above them. They have the full team available and their only worry has been the lack of goals despite many chances. This is exactly the reason why I'm skipping the asian -2 line, which of course is rather big, and going for this bet instead. They don't score that many away goals even in the domestic league and the Twente back line should be far too solid here and a clean sheet shouldn't be in doubt. I would estimate this odd a lot lower, anything above 1.7 makes a good bet surely. Gamebookers currently has 1.74.
FT 3-1, -5. Early fluke goal did it..