Re: Champions League Match Day 5/UEFA Cup
Atletico -1 v PSV 5/10 @ 1.97
Two negative aspects are affecting this bet, namely the fact that Atletico will play without fans and the fact that they are as good as qualified already. Looking at the difference that remains between these sides I still reckon the odds and line to be far too high. PSV has already shown not to be able to play and anticipate on the pace that is required against teams from better leagues this season with helpless losses at Liverpool and Marseille and a 0-3 home loss to Atletico. In the domestic league they have even been more and last week's revival with an easy win over Heracles hardly says a thing. Atletico has had their ups and downs this season but has been looking better recently, especially at home. PSV has lost 5 out of their last 6 matches away for the CL and league, while Atletico only lost points to Sevilla, Real and Liverpool this season on their own turf.
As said, I realize the above stated negativities are of influence but these current odds are too much. Atletico should win this one with ease and even if one or two players are rested I can't see any problems here.
Deportivo -0.75 v Feyenoord 6/10 @ 2.09
Depor has been looking very well recently with 3 home wins in a row and a 7th spot in the league. In last weekend's win over Bilbao they looked very good, especially in the creating of chances. They have some injuries up front, with Mista already being injured, Bodipo getting injured against Bilbao and Riki being doubtful but I reckon their midfield to have more than enough creativity and scoring ability to compensate this, especially with Verdu, even though Valeron could start as well. Feyenoord still has their injury problems as well of course, with Tomasson (back in training but without match practice for a long time), Biseswar, De Guzman (same as Tomasson), Landzaat and Mols all being injured. Feyenoord on the road has been awful this season and the 3-0 loss at mediocre Nancy said it all. Depor is a good home team and it's a do or die match for both, in which I expect Depor to win comfortably in front of their own fans at Riazor.
Tottenham -0.5 @ NEC 5/10 @ 2.15 (2.08 at asians)
NEC have been less convincing recently. Their draw at NAC was a good result but that was about it the last weeks. They haven't had any injury problems but it is simply a squad that has been taking the most out of things, overperforming, but this had to end at some point. Tottenham was quite the opposite, being huge underperformers but a new coach meant new possibilities for them and this has been underlined with just 1 recent loss. I regret to say this but the difference between Dutch sides and foreign teams from bigger leagues is simply getting bigger and bigger. Sides as Atletico, Wolfsburg, City, Arsenal and Liverpool all won their matches against Dutch sides comfortably and as I already said in my other picks the pace and overall quality simply is too much at the moment. Of course the occasional stunt will be there but all in all things don't look that good for Dutch football. Tottenham is with 3 points out of 2 matches and could and should take a massive step towards progressing here with a win against NEC. Their can be a good vibe in the sold out stadium in Nijmegen but far more is needed to get something out of this match. Brazilian goalkeeper Gomes returns on the Dutch soil where he was an amazing goalkeeper and I expect him to give his side a clean sheet here where he feels comfortable. The Tottenham creativity on the midfield should do the rest, with striker Bent being in good form in their front line.