Re: Dutch Football 2008/2009
5/10 De Graafschap +0.5 v RKC @ 1.83 (all asians) Lost (2-0) -5
Regular defender Hese (proper back-up) and regular midfielders Jungschlager and Wuytens are out for De Graafschap. Wuytens have been playing well during the play-offs, but he is the only absentee that I rate as a real miss. To me the absence of regular defender Van Mosselveld for RKC is at least as big. The facts are simple. De Graafschap are a side from the Eredivisie and several of their players can make the difference. Goalkeeper Heijblok and striker Ben Sahar are by far the most important to me and creative striker Assaidi, who was out for the biggest part of the season, has been in brilliant form during the play-offs. The only negative aspect to De Graafschap at the moment is the fact that they weren't too impressive against MVV. Pure individual skill gave them most of the goals during the 2-3 win at MVV and the 2-2 draw at home, but their back line has been a bit shaky, mostly because they played too defensive and let the pressure get onto their back line. RKC on the other hand have had many, many ups and downs this season, but have a good squad. They had a lucky win at Excelsior (going from 1-0 to 1-2 after a red card in the 85th minute) and at home they were horrible, drawing 1-1 in the end, but really deserving a loss.
Anyway, to wrap things up. De Graafschap have more experience of playing at a higher level and I expect individual skill to make the difference here. Except for Wuytens I don't rate the absentees too highly. With Volmer and Keller they have a very experienced duo at the centre back and with Oost joining the midfield they are a bit more attacking, which is something the team needs if you ask me. I took a very small punt on the ML as well at 3.85 even. Prior to seeing the odds I would have given De Graafschap a +0.5 @ 1.6/1.65 maximum, so I was surprised to even see the line at asians.
Expected line-up for De Graafschap: Heijblok; Nalbantoglu, Volmer, Keller, Fränkel; Van den Ouweland, Meijer, Buijs, Oost; Assaidi, Sahar.
5/10 Cambuur Leeuwarden +0.25 @ 1.95 (all asians) Half won(0-0) +2.38
With 2 good matches against Zwolle Cambuur managed to secure this spot in the play-off final. The match in Zwolle was lost 2-1 with 2 attempts from distance, but at home things were a lot better with 3-1 and eventually 2-0 in the deciding 3rd match. Cambuur have the best crowd support in the league probably, with another packed stadium tonight with 10.000 people, which brings quite the extra edge for the home side. They will field exactly the same squad as in their previous 2 matches and coach Menzo stated that they are in a clear winning mood. Another advantage they have is that they have a very strong bench with a creative player (Chery) and a typical target man (De Vries), who gave them the win in the 3-1 match against Zwolle. Roda on the other hand are the side coming from the Eredivisie, but in the play-offs they have been very unconvincing. It was a miracle that they salvaged a draw away at Dordrecht, where a 2-0 loss would have been a more fair result. At home they won 1-0 and improved a bit. They face several absentees today. Regular defender De Jong is suspended and regular midfielder Vormer injured. Up front the problems are a lot bigger. They have 4 real strikers. Oper, Yulu-Matondo and back up striker van Tornhout are all out. Their most important striker Cissé, who is the only 1 left, is unfit as well, and there is a big chance of him not being fit enough to play or play for 90 minutes. With all these problems I can't see an already struggling side win the away match here. I had expected a DNB line around evens.
Last edited by Timotheus; 05-30-2009 at 01:43 PM.