Tampa Bay +17.5
San Diego +3.5
Laying $560 to win $400 (a tie is a push)
1) Tampa Bay is winless and hungry for that first win, and that plus home-field advantage, I feel, is just enough motivation to offset the motivation Cincy will have after their bye after getting throttled 2 weeks ago at Home by the Patriots. NE has been unimpressive to say the least this year, so I wonder just how good Cincy is after that Home loss. TB's defense should be enough to keep them within 17.
2) Dallas is in bounce-back mode after that loss to the Eagles where big plays and turnovers killed them. Bill Parcells will get back to the run and surely will give the Texans a heavy dose of TO this week as Dallas can ill-afford a loss this week at Home.
3) Seattle is also coming off a bye after getting throttled, but they got throttled by the best team in the NFL (Bears) at Chicago. The Rams haven't beaten anyone other than Denver (who handed them 5 turnovers at STL in the opener). So barring a bunch of turnovers by Seattle, they should win this game, although I expect a close game that goes down to the wire.
4) San Diego in a let-down spot, but they are clearly the better team here and should roll. But I always worry about Marty Schottenheimer teams playing to the level of their competition, so if this teaser is still alive after the 3 early games, I may hedge and take SF moneyline.
Week 7: 4-1: +$336
Week 6: 5-1, +$750
Week 5: 4-4, +$681
Week 4: 3-6, +$110
Week 3: 3-3, -$575
Week 2: 5-3, +$306 (did win $509 on the Mansion free bet & hedge)
Week 1: 5-1, +$913
Teasers even though not good value are good bets to make.