here is a pick for this week...I would like invite all others to check out my site for full picks and analysis on Week 14
Green Bay Packers -6
Okay fine...I will be the first to admit that I feel like I am being suckered into this bet but what can I say? We have been expecting the Packers to start rebounding for quite a few weeks now and they just don't seem to ever respond. What I like about this game is the fact that it is being played at night in Green Bay where the weather will be several degrees below freezing (something the Packers are used to) and the Lions are a team that practices indoors and suck at that. Also, Dick Jauron doesn't really give a rats ass about this team because you and me both know he is not coming back next season and these guys all know it. This is the kind of game where the Lions wish they never had to play. Guys won't be into from the start as to where the Packers love the National attention and Brett Favre is going to finally show us he still has gas in the tank. In their last 11 meetings at Lambeau, the Packers have won each game by an average of 14 points per game. That is called dominance and this line looks bogus.
The Detroit Lions are as pathetic as it gets in the NFL and since nothing has gone right for them at home, why the hell should it go right in this one where the temperature will be bone crushingly cold? QB Jeff Garcia is the starter but has proven time and time again that he can't do anything to help this brutal Lions offense. The Lions have to take advantage of Green Bay's weakness at home against the run but that will be impossible with Kevin Jones playing hurt and the Lions averaging only 78.0 rushing yards in their last three road games. In addition to that, the Lions average a paltry 11.3 points per game in their last three road games, while Green Bay has been fantastic defensively allowing only 266.0 total yards per game and 14.3 points per game in their last three home games. Opposing QB's have a rating of only 38.6 in those games which is #1 in the NFL for defenses over that span of games. They are allowing only 4.8 yards per pass attempt and a completion % of only 50.6%. Jeff Garcia is in big time trouble in this game with the Packers averaging 1.7 interceptions per game in their last three at home and averaging 3.3 sacks per game during that same span. Their last three home opponents have converted only 25.6% of their down chances and that trend will continue with the frozen tundra.
The Green Packers actually played well enough to beat the Bears last week but Brett Favre's multiple turnovers and mistakes turned a close game into what looked like a one-sided affaire. Had it not been for the weather conditions, the Packers would have won that game and something tells me they are much better than their 2-10 record indicates. Favres QB Rating in his last three home games is of 86.0 while Detroit last three road games has seen them allow the other QB to a rating of 59.4 (that's good but it won't be enough in this frigid habitat). Samki Gado is going to have a field day on the ground as he has emerged somewhat the last few weeks and gets to face a Lions defense allowing 143.7 rushing yards per game in their last three on the road. The Lions won't be able to stop Gado and if they try, Brett Favre will be finding receivers downfield. Green Bay takes only 6.3 penalties per game in their last three at home while the Lions take 11.3 penalties per game in their last three on the road. This game will be all about quick starts and Green Bay averages 8.0 points in the first quarter in their last three at home. Detroit on the other hand don't have a single point in the first quarter of their last three on the road. PATHETIC. This is Brett Favre redemption time and I don't know who in their right minds would be on Detroit.