Over the past couple of days I've stumbled across a couple of so-called 'systems' for NBA totals .. Both appear to be based on opposing theories so I thought I'd post both of them and get some thoughts on which onw you think is the better ..
Here's the first one ..
Basically, the system is pretty easy. You need 4 sets of numbers, to start. You need the visiting teams scoring average, on the road, and the average defensive points scored, on the road. Write those numbers down.
Then, you need the home teams scoring average, at home, and their average defensive points scored, at home. Write those numbers down.
Next, add the visiting teams scoring road average to the home teams home defensive scoring average. Then, subtract that number against the O/U line. Write that number down.
Next, add the visiting teams road defensive scoring average to the home teams home offensive scoring average. Then, subtract that against the O/U line. Write that number down.
At this point, you should be left with 2 numbers. If both of those numbers are + (positive), then the O/U line is leaning Over.
If both of those numbers are - (negative), then the O/U line is leaning Under.
If those numbers are opposites of each other, that game is a DNP (do not play).
Now, the system goes one step further. If either numbers are less than +/- 2.0, that game is a DNP. If it's exactly +/- 2.0, it's a play.
Now, for unit plays, if the VISITING TEAMS offensive number (visiting teams road scoring avg plus home teams home defensive scoring avg minus the O/U line) is between +/- 2.0 and +/- 7.9, that game is a 1 unit play.
If the VISITING TEAMS offensive number is +/- 8.0 to +/- 9.9, that game is a 2 unit play.
If the VISITING TEAMS offensive number is over +/- 9.9, then that game is a 3 unit play.
It seems that the O/U line is heavily influenced on the visiting teams scoring. At first, I was looking at the home teams number and everything was backwards. After looking at the visiting teams number, it gave me a better gauge on what way the O/U line could be going.
You are looking at the season averages for each team, not the last 5 games or any other duration.
Also, you must remember to use their Road/Home averages for the whole season. Not just their overall scoring averages.
Pretty simple, if the teams various averages are above the set line then play it OVER, and vice versa the UNDER ..
The guy who came up with this boasts a 48-29 (62%) record so far this season ...
Ok, here's another one, based on fading public perception (pretty much the opposite of the first system) ..
Simply add the two teams' ppg together .. let's say it comes to 200 .. If the total for their match is set 8 points or more BELOW their combined ppg averages, you play the UNDER ..
For OVERS if the total is set 5 points or more HIGHER than their combined ppg averages then you play the OVER ..
In a nutshell, this system is based on playing against what most so called 'square bettors' would theoretically go for .. ie, San Antonio vs Dallas yesterday .. their combined ppg was 199, their game total was 185.5 (a 14 point differential) which made for a strong UNDER play ..
The guy who shared this with me reckons it's hit at 58% over the past three seasons (but for some reason doesn't work so well from March to the end of the season)
Anyway, two systems, what do you guys think .. ?