NBA Week 7 thread (46-27, +$2305 on the year)... - MensTennisForums.com
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post #1 of 22 (permalink) Old 12-11-2006, 02:06 PM Thread Starter
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NBA Week 7 thread (46-27, +$2305 on the year)...

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Early looks at Monday's games:

Portland at Philadelphia: Zach Randolph probable for Portland...Philly hasn't exactly shined at Home in this h2h series, winning just twice in their last 7 meetings...6 of the last 9 in this h2h series have gone Under...As hard as it is for NBA teams to win 10 in a row, it is also hard for teams to lose 10 in a row and the Sixers are getting close to that losing 7 straight and 11 of 12...This is the first game all season for Philly where they have rest and their opponent does not...PORT is 2-3 SU & ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks this season...PORT 0-1 SU & ATS in their 5th game in 7 days, but that was against the Spurs...This is the 5th game of a 6-game Road trip for PORT...PORT Under 3 of 4 during the Road trip and I wonder about Philly getting some Unders now without Iverson...

Phoenix at Orlando: Keith Bogans is questionable for Orlando...How hot is PHOE?...10 staright wins now...This is their 4th game of a 5-game roadie...This is their 4th game in 5 days...They were 3-1 ATS in this situational spot last season, losing their first occurrence, just like this season, as they are 0-1 in this spot...These teams have played 5 straight Overs h2h...PHOE did their part last night to keep a 4-game Over streak going, but CHAR didn't cooperate...The Suns are just rolling right now...But one might ask who have they beaten?...Out of the 10 wins, just ONE came against a team with a current record above .500...3 of the teams were above .500 at the time the Suns played them, but the Suns are beating up on some of the weak sisters of the East during this stretch...The 4-of-5 trend for the Away Team where the Home Team is rested has been strong this season, going 9-4 ATS...But I am conflicted here on the Side and the Total...The public will pound the crap out of PHOE here...I also wonder if ORL was looking ahead to PHOE when they were sleepwalking during the Philly game...Another problem for ORL is that they are 2-4 ATS this season when they have rest and their opponents do not, but they are 4-2 SU and 4-1 SU in this spot at Home...ORL is 4-1 ATS last 5 vs. PHOE but PHOE has won 3 of the last 4 SU h2h...PHOE was 5-4 SU & ATS in he 5th game in 7 days last season, but a curious antdote to that stat I notices is that PHOE was 8-1 ATS on the 1st-half line in those 9 games...I cannot bet against this 4-of-5 trend when a good team is in this spot, but I wonder if ORL pulls off the upset and I wonder, despite the h2h series pointing to the Over, if this game stays Under as ORL is Under 4 straight, 8 of 9 and are 14-3-1 to the under their last 18...However, the conflicting trends continue as PHOE is 5-0 to the Over this season on the back-end of bk-2-bks...

Memphis at New Jersey: Lawrence Roberts is questionable for Memphis...How bad is NJ right now?...Are they just going to turn on the light switch like last season and start a 10-gae winning streak in mid-DEC and then a 14-game win streak in March to get "where they should be" in the standings?...MEMP has won and covered 6 of the last 8 in this h2h series...7 of the last 10 Under h2h...NJ just 1-9-1 ATS their last 11, winning just twice...After a C6, MEMP has covered just once in their last 6...

Toronto at Miami: No total posted...Chris Bosh is out for Toronto...Gary Payton and Jason Williams are questionable for Miami...Line looks high but it has been adjusted for the Bosh injury...MIA 3-6 at Home, but TOR 2-10 SU on the Road, but are 7-5 ATS on the Road and 7-2 ATS their last 9 Road games...Chart-play for sure against MIA as they had a C6 and now did Not Cover their last time out...Plus we have the first Home game after a after a Road trip spot...TOR 2-1 ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks and MIA is playing their first game of the season when they have rest and their opponent does not...TOR has Covered the last 4 in this h2h series and 4 of the last 5 have gone Under h2h...TOR suddenlt an Under team since ditching the run-and-gun offense as they are Under 4 straight and 9 of 11...

Boston at New York: No total posted...Wally Szczerbiak is expected to miss for Boston...Stephon Marbury and Jared Jeffries are questionable for and Steve Francis is out for NY...Already the third h2h meeting this season with the Road team winning both meetings...NY now 3-8 SU at Home...NY Over 4 of their last 5 Home games...BOS off a big win and are a chart-play as they had a NC5 before their upset win at NJ last time out...3 straight h2h games at MSG have gone Over...BOS has Covered 9 of the last 12 h2h...

Cleveland at New Orleans: Drew Gooden is questionable for CLE...Peja Stoyakovic is doubtful and David West and Bobby Jackson are expected to miss for New Orleans...CLE has won 7 straight in this h2h series, covering 5...4 straight and 6 of 7 in this h2h series have gone Over...NO a rough stretch upcoming with all these guys atill out as SA and DAL are up next...Despite a breakout game vs. LAL, the Hornets reverted right back to a team that has no flow whatsoever on offense as it appears as though quick teams are giving them problems as SEA ran all over them, forcing 27 turnovers, while GS also ran them ragged, forcing another 21 turnovers...Now CLE is not all that quick outside of Larry Hughes and LeBron, so maybe the Hornets have a shot here...2 extreme Unders the last 2 games for No makes me wonder if the h2h recent Over trend can be bucked as CLE has 2 straight Unders overall themselves...NO just 1-6-1 ATS their last 8...

Indiana at Chicago: No total posted...Jermaine O'Neal is questionable and Stephen Jackson is probable for Indiana...Suddenly a chart-play to fade CHI as their 7-game win streak ended at Home vs. Minny last time out...CHI was 5-0-1 ATS and now have a NC2...CHI has beaten Indy already this season at Home, catching Indy in a 4-of-5 spot on 11/11 and barely covering, needing a 30-14 4th quarter to win by 9...CHI has won 7 of the last 9 at Home vs. Indy...CHI 1-2 ATS and INDY 3-1 ATS in this situational spot where they are playing their 3rd game in 4 days with a day off during Day 3...

Dallas at Utah: Jerry Stackhouse and Austin Croshere are questionable for Dallas...I wonder about this being a possible statement game for Utah...The Jazz are 4-2 SU vs. Dallas the last 6 at Home although the Mavs have won 2 of the last 3 at Utah...7 of the last 8 between these 2 teams have gone Under at Utah...5 of the last 7 have gone Under overall h2h in this series...DAL has won 3 straight and 7 of 8 in this h2h series...DAL could still have a slight hangover from that 12-game winning streak...Utah just a game in the last 6 days, so they should be prepared and are coming off a loss at Minny...DAL Under 4 straight and 10 of 12 overall and I wonder about this game being similar to the game on 11/29 when SA came to Utah and they played a 158 total in what was a big game, a statement game for Utah...Now before you think a 158 is insane for Dallas to play, they did have a 158 at Home vs. NO, and had a 167 and 174 in 2 of their last 3 games vs. NJ and DET, respectively...

San Antonio at LA Clippers: SA lost last night to the Lakers at Staples and now play there again tonight vs. the Clips...The Spurs played 2 at Staples in 2 days last March...On 3/6, they beat the Lakers by 7, but then lost to the Clippers by 13 the next night...The Clips are underachieving this year, and maybe part of the reason is Sam Cassell being banged up early...Cassell has been coming off the bench since his injury and the Clips have struggled...Cassell seems to be this team's life-line...He broke out for 18 at MEMP...Tonight is the situational spot for the Spurs where they are in hte back-end of a bk-2-bk and although they are 2-3 SU & ATS this season in this spot, the Spurs are 1-13 SU & 0-14 ATS their last 14 occurrences in this situational spot against teams with at least a .500 record (1 occurence was a .500 team and the rest were all over .500 at the time they played the Spurs in this spot)...The Clips are 10-9, currently...Hard to ignore this...And it becomes harder to ignore when there is a quick revenge spot here, after a 29-point throttling at SA on 12/8, just 3 days ago...Clips just 1-3 ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not, BUT are 3-1 SU and 3-0 SU at Home in this spot this season...Spurs don't lose 2 in a row often, but this is a tough spot for them here...

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post #2 of 22 (permalink) Old 12-11-2006, 09:08 PM Thread Starter
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Re: NBA Week 7 thread (46-27, +$2305 on the year)...

Like a lot today and feel like I might be short-changing myself by only betting 1 game to this point...Am contemplating other plays...

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 46-27, +$2305

Sides: 22-12, +$1148, Totals: 14-11, +$599, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 2-2, +$69, Quarters: 4-0, +$300

================================================== ======================

Monday, December 11

Utah Jazz -1 -- $210 to win $200 --- (or Utah -1 hcp @1.952, 2/10, Pinnacle)

This reminds me of the spot on 11/29 where Utah had the Spurs at Home after 2 losses in a row and beat SA...The Jazz have had just 1 game in the last 6 days as Jerry Sloan tries for win #1000 for the second time...I still think Dallas will have a slight hangover from that 12-game winning streak snapped as their 2 wins since the streak ended were over what can only be a called a hapless NJ team and Denver, who they caught in a back-to-back spot after the Nuggets had a big Home win over the World Champions Miami Heat on National TV...Jerry Stackhouse and Austin Croshere are questionable for Dallas, and this effects their rotation...I wonder about this being a possible statement game for Utah as they try and assert themselves as a legitimate power in the Western Conference...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Monday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Utah, 2) LAC, 3) Phi, 4) Tor, 5) Chi, 6) Memp, 7) Phoe, 8) Bos, 9)

Totals:

1) Chi un, 2) Utah un, 3) Tor un, 4) Phi un, 5) Memp un, 6) Bos ov, 7) Phoe ov, 8) Cle un, 9) LAC ov

================================================== ======================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$50)
Last 3 days: 2-3 (+$12)
Last 7 days: 6-5 (+$79)
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http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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post #3 of 22 (permalink) Old 12-11-2006, 10:31 PM
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Re: NBA Week 7 thread (46-27, +$2305 on the year)...

Hey Steve, liking your work!

Just wondering how you'd stake your way up to your current yield if the odds were averaging 1.60? Those tend to be the odds I hit in the sports I bet on. Staking well is very tough to do!

Good luck tonight!
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post #4 of 22 (permalink) Old 12-12-2006, 08:02 AM Thread Starter
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Re: NBA Week 7 thread (46-27, +$2305 on the year)...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jez View Post
Hey Steve, liking your work!

Just wondering how you'd stake your way up to your current yield if the odds were averaging 1.60? Those tend to be the odds I hit in the sports I bet on. Staking well is very tough to do!

Good luck tonight!
Good to see you here, Jez...

I am not too familiar with yield and how it works, although somebody did send me an Excel spreadsheet to track yield, so maybe I'll try using it...

GL to ya, sir...

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Early looks at Tuesday's games:

Denver at Atlanta: No total posted...Reggie Evans and Joe Smith are questionable for Denver...Joe Johnson is questionable for Atlanta...From a situational trend analysis point of view, how many factors can point in one direction here?...A quick revenge spot for a bad home loss on 12/6 for Denver here, where they blew a 14-point lead in the 4Q...DEN also off a 15-point loss at Dallas, but that game wasn't even that close, so the Nuggets are in bounce-back mode here...And now you have the injury to Joe Johnson which certainly should play a major factor here...So Denver has a plus-3 in their favor for reasons why you should take them...But hold on, the Nuggets have won once in their last 16 trips to ATL, and that was 2 seasons ago on 2/15/05, where DEN won by 4, which happens to be less then the current 4.5 pointspread at Pinnacle which is being pounded by Denver backers...

Does the h2h record even matter in THIS instance?...I would say the least amount of weight should be attached to the h2h here as DEN had some bad teams in the early 90's while ATL actually had good teams, playoff teams a few of those seasons...I would weight the situational trend spot much higher here, the quick revenge spot from a very bad home loss just 6 days ago, a game practically given away by the Nuggets...But some may argue that DEN has only Covered 1 of the last 7 and 3 of the last 14 h2h vs. ATL overall, no matter where the venue...4 of the last 5 at ATL between these 2 have gone Over...

Seattle at Milwaukee: SEA starts a 5-game Road trip and are shockingly enough 3-0 without Ray Allen as they head to MILW...Damien Wilkens has filled in just fine though, averaging 15.3 ppg...Earl Watson has also been outstanding, too...MILW is getting healthy and are playing better and are coming off a loss to the Knicks at MSG...Bucks are 3-9 SU & 2-10 ATS their last 12 h2h vs. SEA and 10 of the last 14 have gone Under...Can SEA keep winning without Allen?...All 3 wins were at Home...Now they venture on to the Road...MILW seems to be on the upswing...Home team has won and covered 5 straight in this h2h series...

LA Lakers at Houston: No total posted...Tracy McGrady expected to miss for Houston...Sandwich game here for the Lakers...They are off a big win at Home vs. the Spurs and have the Mavs at Dallas on Wednesday...The Lakers have covered 4 straight regular season games at Houston...I kind of see the public embracing the Lakers here with McGrady Out and the Lake-show off a big win against SA...Problem is HOU is 8-1 at Home and the Lakers have had a schedule heavily skewed to playing Home games to this point (15 Home games compared to just 5 Road games and 1 of those "Road" games was at Staples vs. LAC)...Do the Lakers even know how to finish a Road game yet for victory?...They are 1-3 Away from Staples...They have lost 3 straight after catching GS during the Warriors' opener this season...Lost at SEA, PORT and Utah, and they blew a 4Q lead at Utah as they could not finish that game off at a tough environment...Lakers have played their last 8 games at Staples...I wonder if the Lakers will let-down even more here with McGrady Out...Might look past the Rockets with the Mavs up next at Dallas on Wednesday...7 of the last 10 regular season games betwen these 2 teams have gone Over...

Sacramento at Golden State: Kenny Thomas is questionable and Maurice Taylor is expected to miss for SAC...Anthony Roberson and Zarko Cabarkapa are doubtful for GS...The Warriors won by 12 at Home on 11/16 on National TV...SAC has a semi-quick revenge spot here and just snapped a 5-game losing streak...GS is 8-4 SU & 9-2-1 ATS the last 12 vs. SAC and believe it or not, these teams are 9-3 to the Under their last 12, although on 11/16, they flew Over the total...GS is Over 10 of their last 12 overall...

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post #5 of 22 (permalink) Old 12-12-2006, 10:03 AM
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Re: NBA Week 7 thread (46-27, +$2305 on the year)...

Good luck mate,liking the Nuggets 2morro,also loving the Fakers n Kobe to go ballistic without T-Mac,Fakers are a decent road team while Rockets havent been the best at home imo!!!Queens look good against the Warriors aswell!!!

Fakers
Nuggets
Queens
Bucks vs Milwalkee is a tricky one on Prime T.V!!!!Bucks should do the damage here but Sonics on the road are not to be messed with,leaning on the Sonics + n Over but the other games look more enticing no doubt!!!
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post #6 of 22 (permalink) Old 12-12-2006, 10:05 PM Thread Starter
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Re: NBA Week 7 thread (46-27, +$2305 on the year)...

Ok, almost done with NHL (12 games today)...Overall picks have been mediocre at best the last 8 days which should be expected after the red-hot 5-week start...Evening-out process taking place...Like MILW and the Under, too...

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 47-27, +$2505

Sides: 23-12, +$1348, Totals: 14-11, +$599, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 2-2, +$69, Quarters: 4-0, +$300

================================================== ======================

Tuesday, December 12

Sacramento/Golden State over 214 -- $153 to win $150 --- (or Sac/GS over 214 @1.980, 1.5/10, Pinnacle)

Bought up 1/2 a point...Debated hard about the 1Q Over or the 1H Over or the Game total Over and just went with the game total...GS Over 10 of their last 12 overall...SAC has gone Over (and by plenty in many of those)in 6 straight Road games...Their h2h totals from the last 2 years can be thrown out IMO because with Nellie in charge, the Warriors will go small and run-run-run...SAC not afraid to play this style, either, although they have preferred the half-court set in the past...But they had slow guys like Webber and Divac in the past and ran their offense through those 2 guys in the past...Kevin Martin loves to run and so does Bibby...Should be a fast pace, so we just need mid-40% shooting or more from these 2 teams and this should go Over...

Good Luck...brewers7
================================================== ======================

Tuesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Milw, 2) Hou, 3) Den, 4) Sac

Totals:

1) Sac ov, 2) Milw un, 3) Hou un, 4) Den un

================================================== ======================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$200)
Last 3 days: 3-0 (+$450)
Last 7 days: 6-4 (+$379)
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Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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post #7 of 22 (permalink) Old 12-13-2006, 09:36 AM Thread Starter
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Re: NBA Week 7 thread (46-27, +$2305 on the year)...

Was waiting to see if line would go down at all, but the line is starting to move up and I missed out on the +104 at Pinny...I will take it now...

I will be making more plays as the day progresses, believe me, but wanted to get this one bet now...

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 48-27, +$2655

Sides: 23-12, +$1348, Totals: 15-11, +$749, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 2-2, +$69, Quarters: 4-0, +$300

================================================== ======================

Wednesday, December 13

Denver/Washington over 221.5 -- $300 to win $300 --- (or Den/Was over 221.5 @2.000, 3/10, Pinnacle)

Etan Thomas is expected to miss and Brendan Haywood is questionable for Washington...With both Centers possibly out (and 2 other Center options already Out -- Michael Ruffin and Darius Songaila), any defensive presence (please don't laugh too hard) the Wiz have are pretty much gone as Thomas and Haywood have combined for 62 blocked shots...So The Wiz may have to go small on Wednesday and with Denver flying up and down the court, this is looking like a track meet...No truth to the rumor that starting blocks are being installed on the the baselines for this game...

DEN is 2nd and WAS is 6th in the league in points per game...These 2 teams have gone Over 6 straight games h2h by an aggregate total of roughly 94 points (about 16 points per game Over the Vegas total per game)...The lowest total between these 2 teams is 213 the last 5 meetings, and this is BEFORE the nuggets installed this new offense...DEN 3-1-1 to the Over this season on the back-end of bk-2-bks and the push was against ORL (4th in the league in FG% allowed) and the under against DAL (climbing quickly to 12th in the league in FG% allowed)...WAS Over 5 of their last 6 overall and the one Under was by 1/2 a point against DAL at Home...DEN is Under 2 straight for the first time this season...I don't see them going under for a 3rd straight...

Good Luck...brewers7
================================================== ======================

Wednesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

pending...

================================================== ======================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-0 (+$150)
Last 3 days: 3-0 (+$400)
Last 7 days: 7-3 (+$631)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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post #8 of 22 (permalink) Old 12-13-2006, 10:21 AM
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Re: NBA Week 7 thread (46-27, +$2305 on the year)...

pretty confident with that over arent you. looks good

the last 5 games these 2 teams played the total is as follows 226,213,225,216,204, the other games dating back to 99 all went under 200 bar 2 games.
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post #9 of 22 (permalink) Old 12-13-2006, 10:47 AM Thread Starter
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Re: NBA Week 7 thread (46-27, +$2305 on the year)...

Remember, a bet has already been placed for Wednesday in a previous post...

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Early looks at Wednesday's games:

Phoenix at Miami: No total posted...Dwayne Wade expected to miss and Gary Payton questionable for Miami...PHOE has won 11 straight as they play the final game of their 5-game Road-trip...The Suns have Covered 5 straight...They are rolling-rolling-rolling, Rawhide...9-point chalk seems awfully high, but without Wade, is it really too many points?...Amare Stoudamire is looking as healthy as ever and this seems to be the reason why the Suns are rolling right now...Alonzo Mourning may be able to neutralize Amare while he is in there, but playing significant minutes is always an issue with Zo...Haslem is still feeling the after-effects of the flu (just 0-4 from the field last time out vs. TOR)...This is an ESPN game, but with the Wade injury, it's hard to say how this may go as trends are more or less out the window now...

Charlotte at Cleveland: Brevin Knight is questionable for CHAR...Drew Gooden is questionable for CLE...The Bobcats have been obliterated their last 3 games, all at Home, losing by 30 to PHOE, 30 to HOU & 20 to SA, shooting 40%, 28% and 40%, respectively in those games...Awful stretch and they have looked lost without Brevin Knight...Now they have to deal with a revenge spot from the opening week of the season because the Bobcats beat CLE at CHAR on 11/4...The Cavs has been anything-but dominant against CHAR at CLE, winning each of the last 2 contests in OT...CLE also coming off a loss at NO as the Cavs continue to under-achieve this season...The last 2 h2h meetings have gone Under...CHAR is 3rd and CLE is 5th in the league in FG% allowed...CHAR is still a chart-play to the Under as they have gone Under 4 straight after 5 straight Overs...CLE Under 3 of the last 4...

Denver at Washington: Joe Smith is questionable for Denver...Etan Thomas is expected to miss and Brendan Haywood is questionable for Washington...With both Centers possibly out (and 2 other Center options already Out -- Michael Ruffin and Darius Songaila), any defensive presence (please don't laugh too hard) the Wiz have are pretty much gone as Thomas and Haywood have combined for 62 blocked shots...So WAS may have to go small on WED and with Denver flying up and down the court, this is looking like a track meet...No truth to the rumor that starting blocks are being installed on the the baselines for this game...

DEN is 2nd and WAS is 6th in the league in points per game...These 2 teams have gone Over 6 straight games h2h by an aggregate total of roughly 94 points (about 16 points per game Over the total per game)...The lowest total between these 2 teams is 213 the last 5 meetings...DEN 3-1-1 to the Over this season on the back-end of bk-2-bks and the push was against ORL (4th in the league in FG% allowed) and the under against DAL (climbing quickly to 12th in the league in FG% allowed)...WAS Over 5 of their last 6 overall and the one Under was by 1/2 a point against DAL at Home...DEN is Under 2 straight for the first time this season...Can they go Under 3 straight?...DEN is 6-1 SU & ATS vs. WAS the last 7 h2h meetings...

Detroit at Indiana: No total posted...Stephen Jackson is probable, Jermaine O'Neal is doubtful, Al Harrington & Marquis Daniels are questionable for Indy...This has been an Under h2h series...Period...7-0-1 to the under (including playoff games) the last 8 h2h meetings...The under is 19-4-1 the last 24 h2h regular season meetings and if you include the last 2 playoff series in that mix, you have 28-7-1 to the under the last 36 meetings between these 2 teams h2h...DET has gone Under their last 4 games overall, with 180 being their highest total during this stretch...Ok, any idea which way I will lean on this total?...DET is 6-3 & 4-4-1 ATS the last 9 regular season games h2h vs. Indy...

Boston at Philadelphia: No total posted...Wally Szczerbiak is questionable and Kendrick Perkins is Out for Boston...Allen Iverson is on the inactive list for Philly and his locker has been cleaned out for Philly...BOS is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS the last 5 h2h meetings here...BOS is a chart-play here as they are on a C2 (won both) after a NC5 (lost all 5)...Been a while since they laid chalk at Philly, but the 76ers are horrible right now...Both teams Under in their last 2 games overall...

Toronto at Orlando: No total posted...Chris Bosh is out for Toronto...Keith Bogans is questionable and Hedo Turkoglu is Out for ORL...The Raptors have been in the tank since Bosh got hurt...Zero inside presence...Now they have to deal with Dwight Howard, who is coming off a horrible game where the refs scewed him over royally...Howard played just 19 minutes and had a season low in poinst (4) and rebounds (3) and quite frankly, the refs screwed Howard over badly with horrible calls as Raja Bell, Boris Diaw and Amare Stoudamire were flopping to the floor as if shot by a rifle if Howard would even bump them slightly...In fact, the replay of Howard's 4th foul CLEARLY showed that Diaw was not even touched by Howard, but cleverly just flopped to the floor as he stood beside Howard and the ref with a bad angle whistled him for a foul and Howard got a "T" after that and who could blame him?...

But Howard may want to take some frustration out here on a Toronto team who will have no answer for him...The Raps were blistered by PORT by 10 at Home on Sunday and lost by 20 at Miami on Monday...This one could get ugly...ORL hasn't Covered 6 of their last 7 and TOR has Covered 5 of the last 6 h2h, but without Bosh here, the Magic may be primed for a rout...5 of the last 6 h2h meetings have gone under...TOR Under 5 straight and 10 of 12 overall and have ditched their run-and-gun offense as I have mentioned for a week now...ORL Under 5 straight and are 16-3-1 to the Under overall themselves...

Milwuakee at New Jersey: Jason Collins is questionable for NJ...The Nets have won 4 straight h2h meetings with MILW and all 4 have gone Under...NJ is 1-2 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not, although their only win and Cover was against MILW at NJ on 11/15 as the nets won by 13 as 6.5 point chalk...MILW 3-3 SU & 2-4 ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks and are 4-2 to the Over in this spot this season...NJ was 1-9-1 ATS in the 11 games before Covering against MEMP at NJ 2 days ago...NJ started slow last season, too, and then came a 10-game winning streak starting on DEC 16...Was that loss to Boston after leading 22-2 in that game a wake-up call?...

Atlanta at New York: No total posted...Joe Johnson expected to miss for Atlanta...Steve Francis and Channing Frye are Out for NY...7 of the last 9 in this h2h series have gone Over, but their first meeting at ATL on 11/3 stayed Under at ATL...The Hawks have covered 4 of the last 6 meetings...ATL struggling without Joe Johnson...NY 1-2 ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not and ATL 2-2 ATS in back-enders this season...So it is a revenge spot for NY, but this is a lot of chalk for this team to lay...

Portland at Memphis: No total posted...Pau Gasol is questionable and may return later this week...On the surface, it would seem like a lot of chalk to lay here with MEMP, but this is the 6th and final game of a Portland Road trip...The public is hammering PORT early of course...PORT has Covered 5 of the last 6 in this h2h series, but only won 2 of those games and have only beaten MEMP twice in their last 8 tries...After a C6, MEMP has Not Covered 6 of their last 7...Damon Stoudamire spoke out after their last loss at NJ, but this doesn't guarantee a spirited effort here, does it?...The Grizz may view this as a must-win game as they jave lost 3 straight and 6 of 7...

Minnesota at San Antonio: The T-Wolves had been doing decently at SA a few years back, winning 3 of 4 trips into SA from FEB of 2002 thru JAn of 2004...But Minny has lost 5 straight trips since then, only Covering once and the 4 losses were all by at least 14 points each...3 of the last 4 games in this h2h series have gone Over (all last season)...The Spurs also swept the season series last year, covering twice...SA has won 6 of the last 7 SU...Both teams are red-hot coming into this matchup as SA has won 4 of 5 and all 4 wins were by at least 20 points each game and the 2 Home wins were by at least 29 each game...Minny has won 4 straight and 7 of 10 and have Covered 4 straight and 9 of 10...Minny has gone under 7 of their last 8 overall...

Seattle at Chicago: Ray Allen and Danny Fortson are still Out and Earl Watson is questionable for Seattle...The Sonics are doing just fine without Ray Allen, Covering all 4 games and they won the first 3 of those games at Home before losing at MILW by just one point...SEA 1-3 SU & 3-1 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks...Chicago is 1-0 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not...SEA is 10-2 SU & 9-3 ATS vs. the Bulls h2h the last 12...SEA has won and Covered 3 straight overall and the Sonics are also 8-0 SU & ATS at Chicago their last 8 trips into the Windy City and have not lost their since a guy named Jordan played for da Bulls...

LA Lakers at Dallas: Lamar Odom is Out for the Lakers...Jerry Stackhouse is questionable and and Austin Croshere is probable Dallas...The Mavs are coming off a 22-point loss and the Lakers are coming off 2 big wins in a row, the first at Staples vs. the Spurs 3 days ago and the second win at Houston last night...The Lake-Show did blow a 27-point 4Q lead by allowing the Rockets to outscore them 26-1 to cut the deficit to 2, but a pair of missed FTs by Scott Padgett rhat would have tied it turned the tide and LAL hung on to win...The big blow was losing Lamar Odom for at least a month with a sprained knee ealy in that game...The Lakers rose uop without him, but can they do it on bk-2-bk nights?...Speaking of bk-2-bk nights and favorable schedules, how in the world did the Lakers go 5 weeks without playing a back-to-back??...The Lakers last back-ender came on Day 9 of the season and today is Day 43...Let's not forget they played 8 straight games and 13 out of 14 at Staples before going to Houston last night...Dallas 2-0 when they have rest and their opponents do not, both wins of at least 15 points over TOR and DEN...The Mavs have not lost 2 in a row since starting the season 0-4...The Mavs were 3-1 SU & ATS last season (including 2 playoff games) after a loss by at least 20 points...However, they are 0-1 SU & ATS in this spot this season, but this was in Game 3 of the season during that 4-game losing streak during their Finals hangover...


If you look at the recent h2h history, DAL beat this team by 15 the last trip in, but the Lakers won the previous 2 trips to Dallas...The 3 trips to Dallas before these 3 ALL fit today's situational spot where the Lakers were on a back-ender and Dallas had rest...Dallas won and Covered he last 2 with 19 and 14 point wins (on 1/2/04 and 1/5/05 respectively), but lost the first one (but Dirk Nowitzki missed that game with a sprained ankle on 12/4/03)...Lakers have covered 5 of the last 6 vs. DAL overall and 5 of the last 7 went Over...

Utah at LA Clippers: No total posted...Mehmet Okur is questionable for Utah...Tim Thomas and Corey Maggette are doubtful and Sam Cassell and Chris Kaman are questionable for the Clippers...The Clips look like a MASH unit...They are under-achieving and now they are under-manned...And Utah are the kings of the West with the best record in the league...The Jazz buried the Clips by 22 on 11/14 at Utah when the Clips were completely healthy AND playing well at 5-1 and had won 5 straight coming into that game vs. the Jazz...So yes, a let-down spot here for Utah and a big bounce-back spot for the Clips here, but are the Clips even capable of bouncing back right now??...LAC have won and covered 4 straight at Home vs. Utah, but I am not sure if it matters in this spot with the Clips playing very poorly and now they are very short-handed...4 straight in this h2h series has gone Over...

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post #10 of 22 (permalink) Old 12-13-2006, 12:00 PM Thread Starter
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Re: NBA Week 7 thread (46-27, +$2305 on the year)...

Additional bet:

================================================== ======================

Wednesday, December 13

Dallas Mavericks -8 -- $101 to win $100 --- (or Dallas -8 hcp @1.990, 1/10, Pinnacle)

The Mavs are coming off a 22-point loss and the Lakers are coming off 2 big wins in a row, the first at Staples vs. the Spurs 3 days ago and the second win at Houston last night...The Lake-Show did blow a 27-point 4Q lead by allowing the Rockets to outscore them 26-1 to cut the deficit to 2, but a pair of missed FTs by Scott Padgett rhat would have tied it turned the tide and LAL hung on to win...The big blow was losing Lamar Odom for at least a month with a sprained knee ealy in that game...The Lakers rose up without him, but can they do it on bk-2-bk nights?...Speaking of bk-2-bk nights and favorable schedules, how in the world did the Lakers go 5 weeks without playing a back-to-back??...The Lakers last back-ender came on Day 9 of the season and today is Day 43...Let's not forget they played 8 straight games and 13 out of 14 at Staples before going to Houston last night...Dallas 2-0 when they have rest and their opponents do not, both wins of at least 15 points over TOR and DEN...The Mavs have not lost 2 in a row since starting the season 0-4...The Mavs were 3-1 SU & ATS last season (including 2 playoff games) after a loss by at least 20 points...However, they are 0-1 SU & ATS in this spot this season, but this was in Game 3 of the season during that 4-game losing streak during their Finals hangover...

If you look at the recent h2h history, DAL beat this team by 15 the last trip in, but the Lakers won the previous 2 trips to Dallas...The 3 trips to Dallas before these 3 ALL fit today's situational spot where the Lakers were on a back-ender and Dallas had rest...Dallas won and Covered the last 2 with 19 and 14 point wins (on 1/2/04 and 1/5/05 respectively), but lost the first one (but Dirk Nowitzki missed that game with a sprained ankle on 12/4/03)...Back to the bounce-back spot tonight for Dallas...The Mavs shot just 37.7% from the field last night and Josh Howard was 2-for-10, Jason Terry was 2-for-7 and Devin Harris was 2-for-9...These 3 players are much better than this and should respond...Croshere is back which will help the rotation...Meanwhile Kobe Bryant played 42 minutes last night...So yes, Bryant has his legs back now, and he better have because with Odom Out, Kobe will have to carry the load and if he has an off night, he'll be forcing shots...I think this is a good bounce-back spot for the Mavs vs. a let-down spot for the Lakers, who have to now try and win a second straight game in as many nights without a star player as Odom has been spectacular thus far for the Lakers...They could still lose and Cover, but I'll take a shot with the Mavs...

Good Luck...brewers7
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post #11 of 22 (permalink) Old 12-13-2006, 09:53 PM Thread Starter
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Re: NBA Week 7 thread (46-27, +$2305 on the year)...

If I am going to get burned tonight, may as well get burned big...Sorry, but I love this total...Cannot help myself...Hopefully they hit their shots tonight because they'll be putting up plenty...

Additional bets:

================================================== ======================

Wednesday, December 13

Denver/Washington, 1Q, over 56.5 -- $110 to win $100 --- (or Den/Was, 1Q, over 56.5 @1.909, 1/10, Pinnacle)

Denver/Washington, 1H, over 112 -- $100 to win $101 --- (or Den/Was, 1H, over 112 @2.010, 1/10, Pinnacle)

I have said enough already about this game total...These teams are usually out of the gate very fast as WAS is 13-7 to the Over in the 1Q and even better at Home...DEN has been quick out of the gate and I compare this game with the pace of the 2 DEN vs. GS games where they were flying from the get-go and both games flew Over the 1Q, 1H and Game totals...I see a track meet here...

Good Luck...brewers7
================================================== ======================

Wednesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) Dal, 2) Sea, 3) Orl, 4) Char, 5) Memp, 6) Ind, 7) Phi, 8) LAC, 9) Atl, 10) Min, 11) Mia, 12) Was, 13) NJ

Totals:

1) Was ov, 2) Orl un, 3) Ind un, 4) Dal un, 5) Char un, 6) Phi un, 7) LAC un, 8) Sea un, 9) Memp un, 10) Atl un, 11) NJ un, 12, Min ov, 13) Mia un

================================================== ======================
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post #12 of 22 (permalink) Old 12-14-2006, 11:32 AM
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Re: NBA Week 7 thread (46-27, +$2305 on the year)...

very luck with the -8 on dallas win by 9
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Re: NBA Week 7 thread (46-27, +$2305 on the year)...

================================================== =====================

Early looks at Thursday's games:

Orlando at Charlotte: Keith Bogans and Jameer Nelson are questionable and grant Hill is expected to miss for Orlando...The Magic have suddenly lost 4 of 5 and CHAR suddenly got healthy as they are a completely different team with Brevin Knight in the lineup...Coach Bernie Bickerstaff also moved Adam Morrison back to coming off the bench and that seemed to help as the shooting slump ended with a 7-for-17 night and team-high 16 points for the Bobcats in a close loss at CLE last night, 104-101...Jameer Nelson did not play last night for Orlando, and although Carlos Arroyo filled in nicely with 22 points in 28 minutes, ORL probably suffered those 20 minutes when Arroyo was not out there...This will be the trap of the day as 87% of the early bets are on Orlando here...But before we go dumping entire bankrolls on the Magic, keep in mind that Hill won't play and Nelson is questionable, keep in mind that Knight is back and CHAR is healthy, and also keep in mind that the Bobcats have won 3 of the 4 h2h neetings with the Magic at CHAR...

Orlando handled the Bobcats easily enough at ORL on 11/18 with a 97-83 win, but it was a let-down spot for CHAR off their upset win at SA their previous game...Also keep in mind that Hill, Nelson and Hedo Turkoglu all played for Orlando in that game and Knight did NOT play for the Bobcats in that loss...As the Swede has told me many times before, a wealth of information can be found in NBA boxscores, all you gotta do is look at them...I looked, and I graciously pass this info on to you...ORL hasn't covered 5 straight overall and 7 of 8...CHAR is 2-2 SU & ATS and ORL is 1-0 SU & 0-1 ATS when they and their opponent are both playing the back-end of bk-2-bks...This smells like an upset...As far as the total goes, ORL continues to be an Under machine, now going Under 6 straight and are also 16-3-1 to the Under their last 20...CHAR may be hitting another chart-play to the Over, which makes perfect sense with Knight back, as the Bobcats had gone Under 5 straight, then Over 5 straight, then Under 4 straight and now the easy Over last night...ORL is 3rd and CHAR is 4th in the league in FG% allowed...

San Antonio at New Orleans: Bobby Jackson, David West & Peja Stoyakovic are all Out for NO...The Hornets have become a bit unpredictable now with 3 of their top 4 scorers injured and Out as long as they have been...NO is 6th and SA is 11th in the league in FG% allowed, so on the surface, this looks like a stone Under...They played 2 stone Unders last season at NO (ok, Oklahoma City) with totals of 165 & 152...3 of the 4 h2h meetings last season went Under...This is the second 4-games-in-5-days situational trend spot for SA this season...Spurs laying 7 here, yet they were only 6.5 chalk their first in this spot on 11/5 at MSG against the Knicks, so are you telling me the Knicks are better than the Hornets?...Maybe with the injuries, I guess...The Spurs were 1-1 ATS last season in their 4th game in 5 days, but 1-0 ATS on the Road and 0-1 ATS at Home and that's the way the trend is supposed to work...The Spurs are 8-3 ATS their last 11 occurrences when they were playing their 4th game in 5 days with that 4th game being on the Road and are actually 2-1 ATS during this same span when their 4th game in 5 days is at Home...

Now we have that trend that just came to a crashing halt just 3 days ago and that's the one where SA was 1-13 SU and 0-14 ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks against .500 teams or better...And NO is .500...The Spurs ended that 0-14 ATS streak in resounding fashion at Staples vs. the Clips by obliterating LAC by 22...

Back to the 4-of-5 trend for the 2006-07 season...There have been 14 occurrences this season where the Away Team was playing their 4th game in 5 nights and the Home Team has been rested and the Away Team is 10-4 ATS this season...The Spurs have won and Covered 3 straight and 5 of 6 h2h vs, NO...The last h2h meetings have gone Under...

Houston at Golden State: Tracy McGrady is doubtful for Houston...Troy Murphy is questionable and Jason Richardson is Out for GS...There was a time when the Rockets LOVED coming to GS...From April 2nd of 1996 through March 21 of 2003, Houston had won 15 consecutive meetings at GS, Covering 10...Since then GS has managed to win 3 of 6, although HOU has won the last 2...Since TMAC probably won't play, this game becomes less predictable although GS would seem to have the edge as Nellie may employ tactics like he used to do when he coached Milwaukee in the early 1980s when he played Philly and Moses Malone, where he had 3 Centers use 18 fouls hammering Malone all game long...Does he try this with Ming?...He will undoubtedly pack the zone in tight to try and neutralize Ming and make HOU burn them from the outside...Could be a rare GS Under here, although HOU has gone Over 2 straight, while GS has gone Over 10 of 12...Cannot overlook a quick and big revenge spot here as the Rockets throttled GS by 28 on 12/5/06, but TMAC poured in 31...This could be a payback spot for the Warriors...That game at HOU was a 208, but TMAC played with those 31 points...

================================================== =====================
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post #14 of 22 (permalink) Old 12-14-2006, 10:10 PM Thread Starter
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Re: NBA Week 7 thread (46-27, +$2305 on the year)...

Sorry for the wait, but waited for the juice to get to a plus and it just did, plus I am doing NHL...

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 51-28, +$2656

Sides: 24-12, +$1448, Totals: 15-12, +$449, 1H bets: 2-1, +$96, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 2-2, +$69, Quarters: 5-0, +$401

================================================== ======================

Thursday, December 14

Golden State Warriors -4 -- $100 to win $100 --- (or GS -4 hcp @2.000, 1/10, Pinnacle)

Pulling it back tonight...I will keep this short...Payback...I simply cannot overlook a quick and big revenge spot here as the Rockets throttled GS by 28 on 12/5/06...But Tracy McGrady poured in 31 in that game and is doubtful tonight...Troy Murphy and Jason Richardson being Out does hurt, but GS did just fine with didivsion rival SAC last time out, beating them by 13...I expect Nellie to pack it in tight with a zone on Yao Ming and let guys like Shane Battier and Luther Head beat them from the outside...But the revenge angle from a blowout is something I cannot ignore here...

Good Luck...brewers7
================================================== ======================

Thursday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) GS, 2) Char, 3) SA

Totals:

1) SA un, 2) GS un, 3) Char ov

================================================== ======================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 3-1 (+$1)
Last 3 days: 5-1 (+$351)
Last 7 days: 9-4 (+$528)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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post #15 of 22 (permalink) Old 12-15-2006, 07:54 AM Thread Starter
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Re: NBA Week 7 thread (46-27, +$2305 on the year)...

Big card again, there will be more...

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 51-29, +$2556

Sides: 24-13, +$1348, Totals: 15-12, +$449, 1H bets: 2-1, +$96, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 2-2, +$69, Quarters: 5-0, +$401

================================================== ======================

Friday, December 15

Golden State/Phoenix over 230 -- $100 to win $102 --- (or GS/Phoe over 230 @2.020, 1/10, Pinnacle)

Juice fluctuating on this one a bit...Thought about pounding this but cannot after seeing what happened at Wasington DC 2 days ago...A warning that a 30-point blowout will lead to an Under and that certainly could happen here...GS has only played 4 Away games in the last 18 contests...However, those 4 Roadies all went Over and they went Over by an aggregate total of roughly 104 points, which is about 26 per game...But some people will say that the injuries to Jason Richardson and Troy Murphy will prevent this game from getting near a total like that...Well, the Rockets put up a season-high 96 shots last night at GS, so these GS subs certainl are not slowing things down...GS had a 208 in a 28-point blowout at Houston last week and now 216 against the Rockets last night...Is it a stretch for GS to reach 230 against Phoenix??...I liken this matchup to the GS/DEN matchups that hit 227 and 269 in a home-and-home series on 11/22 & 11/24...PHOE has 3 straight Unders for the first time all season...I don't see this streak hitting 4 against a wide-open, gun-slinging GS squad...

Good Luck...brewers7
================================================== ======================

Friday's Picks for tracking purposes:

pending...

================================================== ======================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
================================================== ======================
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 0-1 (-$100)
Last 3 days: 4-2 (+$51)
Last 7 days: 7-5 (+$263)
================================================== ======================
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
================================================== ======================
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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