NBA Week 6 thread (40-22, +$2226 on the year)... - MensTennisForums.com
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post #1 of 37 (permalink) Old 12-04-2006, 04:12 PM Thread Starter
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NBA Week 6 thread (40-22, +$2226 on the year)...

================================================== =====================

Early looks at Monday's games:

Dallas at Washington: Dallas has won 12 straight after an 0-4 start...How long can this go on?...Dallas is 13-3 SU & 9-7 ATS the last 16 against WAS and the last 12 has seen 6-5-1 to the Over...Quick-revenge spot from 11/21 where Dallas killed Washington at Dallas by 27 after the game was tied at the half...The pace was quick in that game before Dallas pulled away, but both teams shot terribly, so the total only hit 187...WASH shot 35.5% and DAL shot 39.8% in that game, but there were 174 shots taken in the contest and 46 FTs...I expect about the same number of shots and the same pace, so if both teams get to even 45% for the game, we should have an Over here...I may look at a 1Q Over, too as dallas has had a lot of those this season...The public will pound Dallas, but for me it is WAS or no-play...Also a chart-play to the over for Dallas because after 6 straight Unders, they have had 2 Overs and for WASH, a slight chart-play to the Over because after 6 of 7 Under, they have gone Over 3 of 4 and 2 straight...

Memphis at New York: Damon Stoudamire is questioable for Memphis...Similar situation here to the last game for the Knicks except for the 4-of-5 spots...A bad Road team vs. a bad Home team...NY is 1-7 SU at Home while MEMP is 1-8 on the Road...Revenge spot for MEMP after an opening-night loss to NY at Home in triple-OT...Not sure what weight that really holds here, but MEMP has been outstanding historically the last 5 years vs. the Eastern Conference...This is a chart-play to fade MEMP after a C6, they have a NC2 now...Under looks intriguing here as 4 of the last 5 went Under (in regulation) h2h...And after that 79-point 2H against TOR last time out at Home for NY, I wonder if this entire game might be closer to the 79-point half tonight in both halves against MEMP...Knicks defense not as bad as people think as they are 10th in the league in FG% allowed and MEMP is 8th in the league in Points allowed per game...

Golden State at San Antonio: Jason Richardson is probable but not 100% healthy for GS...Manu Ginobili is questionable for SA, although during the last SA telecast, the Spurs announcers did mention that Ginobili may play on Monday as that was his target date for returning...GS has lost 17 straight (6-11 ATS) at SA and has not won there since 2/14/97...9 Unders and 8 Overs during that losing streak...SA was 30-4 SU & 20-14 ATS vs. GS in the 34 previous meetings coming into this season and then lost at GS 111-102 on 11/27...The Spurs were on the back-end of a bk-2-bk that night and are 0-14 ATS (1-13 SU) in that spot their last 14 chances against teams with at least a .500 record...GS hasn't won since that big home win...Spurs haven't covered 3 straight and are struggling without Ginobili...GS only 4 Away games this season and are 1-3 SU & 2-2 ATS...GS 3 straight Overs and 6 of 7 Over...

Boston at Chicago: No line posted...Wally Szczerbiak is questionable and Paul Pirece and Kendrick Perkins are probable but not 100% healthy for Boston...Malik Allen and Chris Duhon are questionable for Chicago...Almost right on schedule, the Bulls have heated up now that they have some Home games after that bad 7-game Road trip...The Bulls have won 4 straight and are 3-0-1 ATS and they have 2 comfortable wins at Home since that Road trip...The Bulls have won and Covered 5 straight h2h vs. BOS...3 of the last 4 Over in this series...CHI has plenty of Home games coming up and some mediocre competition coming in this week, so look for them to get on a roll...The Celtics not terrible on the Road with a 3-2-1 ATS record and they are 4-2 to the Over...

Milwaukee at Utah: The Bucks have been an Over and Cover machine on this Road trip (3 Covers and 3 Overs) and have gone Over 4 straight...Their C3 has come after a NC5, so they are still a chart-play here...Utah started the season 7-2 ATS and are 3-6 ATS since and are 1-4 ATS after starting the season 12-1 SU...This h2h series has seen Utah go 7-2 SU and 9-0 ATS the last 9...The total is even more strange, because in the last 17 h2h meetings, the first 9 went Over, then 6 out of 7 Under, and now the last meeting, on 11/11 this season at MILW, did fly Over as michael Redd scored 57 points in that game...So this is a revenge-spot to boot for the Bucks...

Orlando at Sacramento: No line posted...Grant Hill is questionable for ORL...Ron Artest is questionable for SAC...The Magic saw their 6-game winning streak end last night in a big way, getting buried at Staples by the Clippers...ORL is 2nd in the league in FG% allowed, although they allowed LAC to shoot 60% last night...ORL has gone Over 2 of their 3 bk-2-bks and this is SAC's first game of the season when they have rest and their opponent does not...ORL 2-1 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks...SAC is 6-2 SU & 5-3 ATS at Home...The Home Team has won 9 of the last 10 in this h2h series...

Indiana at LA Lakers: Stephen Jackson is questionable for Indiana...The Home team has won 7 straight & 8 of 9 in this h2h series...2 straight Unders and 7 of 9 Under in this series...Indy ending their longest Road Trip of the season...The Lakers have been outstanding at Home at 9-2 (10-2 if you count the win vs. the Clips last time out in the same building)...Indy 4 straight Overs on this trip...The Lakers had 4 Overs and a push before going Under last time out...Indy their 5th game in 7 days while the Lakers are playing their 10th straight game with at least 1 day's rest and are 7-3 in those games...

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post #2 of 37 (permalink) Old 12-04-2006, 05:41 PM Thread Starter
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Re: NBA Week 6 thread (40-22, +$2226 on the year)...

Possible cold-streak coming, hard to say, so I may mix it up a bit this week and I am looking into other possible plays for today...

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 40-22, +$2226

Sides: 18-10, +$907, Totals: 14-9, +$851, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 3-0, +$250

================================================== ======================

Monday, December 4

Dallas/Washington over 204 -- $150 to win $154 --- (or Dal/Wash over 204 @2.03, 1.5/10, Pinnacle)

This line is shooting downwards like crazy, and I am not sure why...Went down from 206 to 204 in the last 30 minutes...Don't see it going any lower than this, but what di I know?...These teams played 11/21/06 and the total was just a 187, but the game was a blow-out...Dallas won by 27...The pace was quick in that game before Dallas pulled away, but both teams shot terribly, so the total only hit 187...WASH shot 35.5% and DAL shot 39.8% in that game, but there were 174 shots taken in the contest and 46 FTs...I expect about the same number of shots and the same pace, so if both teams get to even 45% for the game, we should have an Over here...Also a chart-play to the over for Dallas because after 6 straight Unders, they have had 2 Overs and for WASH, a slight chart-play to the Over because after 6 of 7 Under, they have gone Over 3 of 4 and 2 straight...Dallas has scored at least 103 the last 5 straight meetings h2h here, and I don't see them scoring less than that and I see WASH breaking 100, too, in what should be a tight game down the stretch, so maybe some late fouling puts this Over in the final minute if it hasn't already gone Over by then...

Good Luck...brewers7
================================================== ======================

Monday's Picks for tracking purposes:

pending...

================================================== ======================
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Recent Results:
Yesterday: 0-1 (-$54)
Last 3 days: 1-2 (-$62)
Last 7 days: 5-2 (+$488)
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http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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post #3 of 37 (permalink) Old 12-04-2006, 10:19 PM Thread Starter
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Re: NBA Week 6 thread (40-22, +$2226 on the year)...

================================================== ======================

Additional bet:

Monday, December 4

Dallas/Washington, 1Q, over 51.5 -- $58 to win $50

Juice was high at Pinny, so I went to 5dimes...Both teams are 11-5 to the Over in the 1Q, and Dallas has gone Over 5 straight 1Q's while Washington has gone Over 4 straight 1Q's...Both teams have been starting games with a lot of energy and hot shooting so I am hoping for more of the same tonight...

Good Luck...brewers7
================================================== ======================

Monday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) NY, 2) Chi, 3) Was, 4) Milw, 5) Sac, 6) GS, 7) Ind

Totals:

1) Was ov, 2) Chi ov, 3) Sac ov, 4) NY un, 5) Milw ov, 6) Ind un, 7) GS un

================================================== ======================
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post #4 of 37 (permalink) Old 12-05-2006, 12:34 AM
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Re: NBA Week 6 thread (40-22, +$2226 on the year)...

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewers7 View Post
================================================== ======================

Additional bet:

Monday, December 4

Dallas/Washington, 1Q, over 51.5 -- $58 to win $50

Juice was high at Pinny, so I went to 5dimes...Both teams are 11-5 to the Over in the 1Q, and Dallas has gone Over 5 straight 1Q's while Washington has gone Over 4 straight 1Q's...Both teams have been starting games with a lot of energy and hot shooting so I am hoping for more of the same tonight...

Good Luck...brewers7
================================================== ======================

Monday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) NY, 2) Chi, 3) Was, 4) Milw, 5) Sac, 6) GS, 7) Ind

Totals:

1) Was ov, 2) Chi ov, 3) Sac ov, 4) NY un, 5) Milw ov, 6) Ind un, 7) GS un

================================================== ======================
1st Q, 1.09 remaining

Wizards 29
Mavs 23
Brewers 1

Well played, nice look on that bet, especially since it's a second bet in the overs' department at a time where you could hit a cold streak, as you wrote.

Good start for the 204+ bet since Dallas will work to improve their shooting while the Wizards hopefully stay in the zone with you...

BTW, Great contribution from you to the forum.
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post #5 of 37 (permalink) Old 12-05-2006, 01:54 AM
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Re: NBA Week 6 thread (40-22, +$2226 on the year)...

nice play with the first quarter bet b7!

But I think it's going to be tough with the OVER for the whole game here. Dallas is struggling but it look like Washington will win this one easily
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post #6 of 37 (permalink) Old 12-05-2006, 02:16 AM
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Re: NBA Week 6 thread (40-22, +$2226 on the year)...

he still can break the over!!
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post #7 of 37 (permalink) Old 12-05-2006, 02:18 AM
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Re: NBA Week 6 thread (40-22, +$2226 on the year)...

Quote:
Originally Posted by xcrap View Post
he still can break the over!!
47 seconds left and it's on 199 right now. Bloody can't get close then this man
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post #8 of 37 (permalink) Old 12-05-2006, 02:20 AM
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Re: NBA Week 6 thread (40-22, +$2226 on the year)...

nice bet, i think he will win , what a close one
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post #9 of 37 (permalink) Old 12-05-2006, 02:23 AM
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Re: NBA Week 6 thread (40-22, +$2226 on the year)...

Quote:
Originally Posted by xcrap View Post
nice bet, i think he will win , what a close one
I had over 203.5 and the total for the game is 203. Unbelievable

Can't get closer then that.
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post #10 of 37 (permalink) Old 12-05-2006, 02:25 AM
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Re: NBA Week 6 thread (40-22, +$2226 on the year)...

OMG by 1 point

BL
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post #11 of 37 (permalink) Old 12-05-2006, 01:45 PM Thread Starter
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Re: NBA Week 6 thread (40-22, +$2226 on the year)...

tough, tough loss as it was even more painful to watch them not score at all over the final 33 seconds...

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Early looks at Tuesday's games:

Portland at Detroit: Raef LeFrentz is probable for Portland...Lindsey Hunter is questionable for Detroit...PORT has covered 7 of the last trips into DET...The Pistons just had an 8-game winning streak snapped last time out at CHAR...Wonder here if they may be looking ahead to Dallas next...PORT has become unpredictable now for me, but it's always hard for me to lay DD's in the NBA...PORT has lost 5 straight overall...Pistons still and Over team at Home under Flip Saunders although the last 4 between these two teams h2h have gone under at Detroit...

Dallas at New Jersey: No line posted...Vince Carter is probable for NJ...DAL shot just 39% on Monday much to my dismay (for the total) and now, after the 12-game winning streak comes to and end, this has to be a let-down spot IMO rather than a bounce-back spot because the air is let out of the balloon a bit once a long win streak ends...When long winning streaks come to an end, there just is a natural mental let-down, and it kind of acts like a chart-play for a game or 2...Dallas had won 11 straight (Covering 9) vs. NJ h2h before the Nets finally broke through on 3/19/06 at Home with a 100-89 win...NJ going the other way, after losing 6 straight, NJ has won 2 in a row...NJ is 1-0 SU & ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks and while DAL is 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks, those numbers need to be broken down further...All 4 of the back-enders were at Home and the win vs. PHOE also had Phoe on a back-ender...Dallas also had a banged-up MEMP team and they were also on a back-ender, then it was the Wiz, a winless Road team and finally the Hornets, without West and Peja...So sorry, I am not impressed...These 2 teams have played Under 4 of the last 5 at the Meadowlands h2h...Nets have gone Over 3 straight overall...

Golden State at Houston: No line posted...Jason Richardson is expected to miss for GS...Tracy McGrady is probable for Houston...This is an automatic play for me, taking a bounce-back team after a 40-point loss and this trend is stronger when the team in this situational spot is .500 or better...HOU in a let-down spot after a dominating performance over Cleveland...GS is 2-1 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks his season...HOU has had many games in this situational spot, having rest when their opponent does not, and are just 1-4 ATS (4-1 SU) ...HOU 2-6 ATs at Home, too, despite the 7-1 SU record...HOU 6 straight Unders and GS 4 straight Overs overall so we have a conflict here...Only 7 occurrences in the last 15 years with an Un6 taking on an Ov4 and there is no strong indication either way as 4 have gone Under...Only 2 previous occurrences had the Home team with the Under6 and those split...And in all 7 occurrences, the Ov4 team had rest every game...More pertinent may be the fact that GS is 3-0 to the Under in back-enders this season...5 of the last 6 on HOU in this h2h series have gone Under...GS 9-2 ATS last 11 trips to HOU...

Sacramento at Phoenix: No line posted...No word on Artest yet...Here we go with the 4-of-5 trend again...After an 8-3 ATS start for the Away Team playing 4-of-5 vs. a rested Team, the Pacers didn't cover at DEN on SAT to make it 8-4 ATS on the year...With all of the recent winning streaks of 6 or more being snapped the last 3 days (ORL a 6-gamer on SAT, DET an 8-gamer on SUN, and DAL a 12-gamer on MON), is it the Suns' turn to have their 6-game winning streak snapped?...Problem is PHOE has been tough at Home in NOV and DEC when they have rest and their opponent does not last year and this season...2-1 ATS already this season...SAC 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks and 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS on the Road in this spot...on the Road with a 3-2-1 ATS record and they are 4-2 to the Over...SAC has covered 6 of 8 overall and 3 of 4 in PHOE h2h vs. the Suns and those same exact numbers apply to the Over...SAC 3-1 to the Over on back-enders this season...

Atlanta at Seattle: Revenge spot here for the Hawks after an OT loss to SEA on 11/11...Problem is SEA has won and covered 6 straight in this h2h series and 4 of those went Over...SEA had been Under 5 of 6 overall, but suddenly 2 straight Overs and ATL has 3 straight Overs after 5 of 6 Under...ATL has slipped to 4th in the league in FG% allowed while SEA is still dead last...

Miami at LA Clippers: Gary Payton is questionable for Miami...The Staples Center has seen a lot of basketball to this point of the season as the Clips and lakers have had a ton of Home games...,Pat Riley has straightened things out a bit for MIA as they have won 3 of their last 4 and Covered all 4 games...The Clips shot 60% their last game, so a knee-jerk reaction for me to fade them here, but they are still a bit of a chart-play as they have Covered 2 out of 3 after a NC7...Don't know if I can lay that many points, though...No read or angle to this point on the total, but 4 of the alst 5 between these 2 have gone Over h2h...

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post #12 of 37 (permalink) Old 12-05-2006, 11:18 PM Thread Starter
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Re: NBA Week 6 thread (40-22, +$2226 on the year)...

Tough, tough loss last night, but glad I got something back with the 1Q bet and am glad I didn't raise my bet to $200 just yet as I did increase my bankroll to the point where it was time to increase the bet slightly (like I did after I got a little bit over $1000 up, as I bumped plays up to $150), but I smelled a cold streak and decided to hold off bumping my bet up a bit until this mini-storm passes...Went 5-9 on all picks yesterday for my 4th losing day out of 34 days, but my top 3 Sides went 3-0 and I have always considered those my money-plays, but the rest of the picks went to shit...I have been doing this for a while and can sometimes sniff out the impending cold streaks...I will lower my bet until I see more consistency on my part...And you should, too...

================================================== ======================
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
================================================== ======================
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
================================================== ======================
Season To Date: 41-23, +$2126

Sides: 18-10, +$907, Totals: 14-10, +$701, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 4-0, +$300

================================================== ======================

Tuesday, December 5

Golden State/Houston under 193.5 -- $102 to win $100 --- (or GS/Hou under 193.5 @1.980, 1/10, Pinnacle)

Like both the Side and Total here as I think GS can win this straight up after a 40-point loss, but I just have a nagging gut-feeling about Houston tonight that keeps me from pulling the trigger, so I will go with the total instead...Have I gone mad taking GS Under such a "low" total?...I don't think so...GS is 3-0 to the Under in back-enders this season...5 of the last 6 trips to HOU for GS have gone Under...Following that 269 debacle at Denver, GS played the next night and had a 169 total and beat Utah outright...I feel Houston will control the pace and play half-court and slow this thing down, and quite frankly, as much as GS likes to run, they can play the half-court game if they want to just fine...HOU is playing some drastic Unders and the pace of their games have been incredibly slow recently...A team off a blow-out loss will generally make an attempt at defense the next time out, and that 269 at Denver is the example I will cite again as GS played zone and held the best shooting team at the time (Utah) to 32.5% shooting that game and Utah had been playing Overs at that time just like GS was playing Overs and we had a 169...If Houston controls the pace, then this will be at 180, tops...HOU just played a 193 against PHOE AT Phoenix, so why should this game reach 194?...

Good Luck...brewers7
================================================== ======================

Tuesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

Sides:

1) NJ, 2) GS, 3) Sac, 4) Port, 5) LAC, 6) Sea

Totals:

1) GS un, 2) Port ov, 3) Sac ov, 4) NJ un, 5) Sea ov, 6) LAC un

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Recent Results:
Yesterday: 1-1 (-$100)
Last 3 days: 1-3 (-$312)
Last 7 days: 5-3 (+$288)
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http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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post #13 of 37 (permalink) Old 12-06-2006, 01:26 AM
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Re: NBA Week 6 thread (40-22, +$2226 on the year)...

that line went from 195.5 earlier to 192.5 now
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post #14 of 37 (permalink) Old 12-06-2006, 09:22 AM Thread Starter
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Re: NBA Week 6 thread (40-22, +$2226 on the year)...

================================================== =====================

Early looks at Wednesday's games:

Orlando at Indiana: Some early pounding on the Under here as once again, an Orlando total was maybe posted too high...ORL 11-3-1 to the Under their last 15 and the Magic are second in the league in FG% allowed...6 in a row and 8 of 9 have gone Under h2h in this series...Indy is Home after their longest Road Trip of the season (6 games)...These teams have played twice already this season (once in ORL and once in Indy) and the totals for both games were 187...The Home Teams won both games, but Indy has Covered both...This is ORL's 6th and final game of their current Road Trip in which they are 4-1 SU & 3-2 ATS...The Pacers were beaten fairly soundly in the final 2 games of their Road trip...

Toronto at Cleveland: Chris Bosh (eye virus) and Morris Peterson are questionable for Toronto...Larry Hughes is probable for Cleveland...However, if you read the Toronto Star, both Bosh and Peterson feel ready to go on Wednesday although Bosh is going to be "re-evaluated after Wednesday morning's shoot-around" before an "official decision" is made and as far as Peterson goes, it sounds like he IS going to play but the only question is whether he starts or not...The Toronto Star also had an article talking about how Coach Sam Mitchell has officially ditched the run-and-gun-and-get-100-shots-a-game offense that the raptors worked on in the preseason and are going with "quality possessions over quantity"...The reason is because the Raptors are dead last in the league in 3-point shooting percentage...So it's hard to run a Phoenix-like offense when nobody can shoot from behind the arc...Cleveland is coming off their worst shooting game of the season and in fact, it was the worst shooting game by any team this season as CLE shot just 28.2% form the floor and scored just 63 points in an 18-point loss at Houston on Saturday...So this would be an EXTREME bounce-back spot for CLE, plus a revenge spot for an 8-point loss to the raptors at TOR on 11/22...Plus, Larry Hughes returns (although generally speaking fom a handicapping point of view, this could hurt CLE)...CLE is 6-3 SU & 5-4 ATS their last 9 vs. Toronto at Home, with 6 of those games going Under...Toronto is Under 6 of their last 8 overall...

San Antonio at Charlotte: Big-time revenge spot here for SA while it is also a let-down spot for CHAR, who just beat Detroit here on Sunday...The Spurs won by 40 their last time out vs. GS with the return of Manu Ginobili...The Spurs won by 8 here last season and by 19 2 years ago in CHAR...Have to believe the key factor here is avenging the OT loss to the Bobcats at Home on 11/15 for the Spurs...These teams pretty much play right around 180, as the 187 at SA was achieved with OT, and it still stayed Under, while these teams have played every game h2h Under but 1 and that was their first meeting where they had a 189 to go Over the 187 total by a bucket...Chart-play to the Under here for Charlote as they had 5 straight Overs before going Under last time out...Spurs have gone Over 2 straight and have played a lot of Overs this season, but I wonder about this Vegas total being set a tad high here...

Memphis at Boston: Damon Stoudamire is questionable for Memphis...Wally Szczerbiak is doubtful for Boston...Still a chart-play to fade MEMP in this spot because after a C6, they are currently on a NC3...However, BOS is 1-5 SU & ATS their last 6 games...Even though BOS is 7-2 SU their last 9 games vs. MEMP, the Celtics are just 1-8 ATS in those games...Nothing significant sticking out on the total...

Washington at NY Knicks: Jerome James is questionable for NY...Yet another bad Road team comes to MSG, as in consecutive games, the 3 worst Road teams in the league are playing the Knicks at MSG...TOR won on Saturday, while MEMP could not on Monday...Now the Wiz come to MSG for the second time already this season...The Knicks have just 2 wins at MSG all year and the first was against the Wiz (by 20 on 11/15) and their 2nd win came 2 days ago...The Wiz are winless on the Road, 0-8 (3-5 ATS) and are undoubtedly tired of hearing about their futility on the Road...The Wiz are also coming off a big win vs. Dallas 2 days ago and although a let-down spot may seem to be in the cards, I feel the Wiz will use that win as a confidence and momentum builder...This is a revenge spot and I feel WASH can take this one...Total set at 206 even though this last meeting at MSG was a 184...NY 5-2 to the Under their last 7 Home games...WAS is 6-2 to the Under on the Road this season...This h2h series has 5 straight and 6 of 7 Under...

Houston at Minnesota: Revenge spot here for Minny after losing at HOU on 11/28...The Road team has won 8 of the last 10 and covered 9 of the last 10 in this h2h series...Minny 2-1 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponents do not, but surprisingly, they are 2-0 SU & ATS on the Road and 0-1 SU & ATS at Home in this spot...HOU is 1-2 SU & ATS on the back-end of bk-2-bks this season...Even though the last 2 have gone Under h2h, 6 of the previous 7 had gone Over...Minny has 4 straight Unders, while HOU had 6 straight Unders before having an Over last night, so they are suddenly a chart-play to the Over, but these teams played a 157 on 11/28, with just 144 shots and 23 FTs taken in that game...Very slow pace...Houston is now #1 in FG% allowed and Minnesota is 6th...

Portland at Milwaukee: No total posted...Charlie Villanueva and Maurice Williams are questionable for MILW (although this was the target date for Villanueva to return)...MILW 28th and PORT 29th in the league in FG% allowed...PORT 2-2 ATS in the back-end of bk-2-bks and MILW is 0-3 SU & ATS when they have rest and their opponent does not, with all 3 games being at Home...PORT certainly in a let-down spot off a big upset win at DET last night...MILW 2-4 SU & 1-5 ATS at Home this season...These teams play Overs against each other...Pure and simple...6 straight and 9 of 11 and 14 of 17 and 21 of 27 Over h2h in this series...

Atlanta at Denver: Nene Hiliario and Joe Smith are probable for Denver...ATL 1-2 SU & ATS this season on the back-end of bk-2-bks, but in all 3 games, their opponent was also on a back-ender...DEN is rested here and are 6-1 SU & ATS their last 7...ATL has dominated this h2h series historically, winning 8 of the last 11 SU & ATS, but DEN has won 3 of the last 4, covering once...Both of the games between these 2 teams went Over last season h2h...

Philadelphia at Chicago: Kyle Korver is questionable for Philly...The Sixers are generally a fairly predictable team as they usually Cover on the Road getting points and do not Cover at Home as a Favorite...CHI has won and Covered all 3 Home games rather easily since returning from their 7-game Road trip...This is a revenge spot for CHI as their last loss came at Philly on 11/24...The Bulls have won 5 straight since then and are 4-0-1 ATS...The Sixers have lost 4 straight overall which matches their season high and hey have lost 8 of 9 with their only win coming against this Bulls' team...Are the Bulls suring up their defense now that they have had time to practice at Home and work out the kinks?...The points look good here for this ESPN game...

New Orleans at LA Lakers: No total posted...Bobby Jackson is doubtful while David West and Peja Stoyakovic are still out for NO...Kobe Bryant is now questionable (looks like a game-time decision) and Brian Cook is also questionable for LAL...Still no scorers for the Hornets, yet they somehow had a 219 at Home vs. the Bulls in their last outing last FRI, during a points-points-points weekend in the NBA...Lakers a bit of a chart-play to the under after some Overs, as they have gone Under 2 straight...5 straight and 8 of 9 have gone Over in this h2h series, with the 8 Overs all hitting at least 190...LAL has won 3 straight and 7 of 8 h2h and covered 6 of 8 in this series...The Hornets have Not Covered 5 straight overall but managed a push last time out while the lakers have Covered 3 straight Overall...

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post #15 of 37 (permalink) Old 12-06-2006, 10:26 PM Thread Starter
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Re: NBA Week 6 thread (40-22, +$2226 on the year)...

I like several tonight, but since I am in the midst of a slump that I pretty much predicted a few days back, it is wise NOT to bet sevral games and wise NOT to raise my bet when my performance has been incredibly sub-par...2 straight losing days with my tracking picks to boot, so this should be the obvious red flag for followers to back off my plays and either fade me, stay away from my picks, or lower your bet the same way I have...Money management is the key to long-term success...We are in Week 6 of a 24-week regular season, so there is a long way to go, MANY opportunities ahead, so it would be foolish to be raisng bets now and blowing big chunks of your bankroll by chasing now...Let's pull back the bets until I am back on track and "feeling it" again or just stay away from my picks for a day or 2...

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Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ================================================== ======================
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
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Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
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Season To Date: 41-24, +$2024

Sides: 18-10, +$907, Totals: 14-11, +$599, 1H bets: 1-1, -$4, 2H bets: 3-1, +$193, ML: 1-1, +$29, Quarters: 4-0, +$300

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Wednesday, December 6

Washington Wizards Pick -- $100 to win $104 --- (or Washington @2.020, 1/10, Pinnacle)

Going back to what works for me many times, and that is, just picking the first game that jumps off the page at me...The Wizards is that game for Wednesday...The Knicks have just 2 wins at MSG all year and the first was against the Wiz (by 20 on 11/15) and their 2nd win came 2 days ago...The Wiz are winless on the Road, 0-8 (3-5 ATS) and are undoubtedly tired of hearing about their futility on the Road...The Wiz are also coming off a big win vs. Dallas 2 days ago and although a let-down spot may seem to be in the cards, I feel the Wiz will use that win as a confidence and momentum builder...This is a revenge spot and I feel WASH can take this one...Coach Eddie Jordan said before the Dallas game that he wants "fighters" and the team responded by thrashing the Mavs, leading by as many as 31 in that game...This 0-8 start on the Road is the worst start on the Road in franchise history and the players are very aware of it...It's a fairly quick revenge spot here for the Wiz and I don't see them losing twice at MSG in just a 3-week period of time...

Good Luck...brewers7
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Wednesday's Picks for tracking purposes:

pending...

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Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
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Recent Results:
Yesterday: 0-1 (-$102)
Last 3 days: 1-3 (-$256)
Last 7 days: 4-4 (+$36)
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Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
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Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
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