NBA Week 2 thread (11-6 in Week 1)... - MensTennisForums.com

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
post #1 of 29 (permalink) Old 11-06-2006, 09:06 PM Thread Starter
Registered User
 
brewers7's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 108
                     
NBA Week 2 thread (11-6 in Week 1)...

Note:

I forgot to post at this forum last week and that is my bad because I meant to and basically forgot...Since I ended Week 1 about Even anyway, I'll just carry over my record so I don't have to keep separate records here...You can probably google my username and check out my picks last week if you need to...Seems like a good forum here, so I'll make it my 5th forum to post at...

################################################## ##############
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ################################################## ##############
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
################################################## ##############
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
################################################## ##############
Season To Date: 11-6, -$2

Sides: 5-2, +$52, Totals: 4-3, -$204, 2H Totals: 2-0, +$200, ML: 0-1, -$50

System Plays: 0-0

################################################## ##############

2 mistakes I made in Week 1 was not flat-betting and not betting on Sunday (would have had another 3-0 day)...Still a break-even week and I hope to slowly build from here...

Last year my bigger bets hit a high % and my smaller bets were terrible...In Week 1, the opposite was true...Long way to go, though...

I may play more opening lines this year (haven't decided), but I didn't bet Sunday because all 3 lines moved against me big-time overnight, so I passed Sunday afternoon and regretted it...

Monday, November 6

San Antonio Spurs -6 -- $220 to win $200

The NBA schedulemakers gave the Spurs two 4-games-in-5-days situational spots last year (1 at Home and 1 on the Road), and ironically, the Road spot was at New York in early December...The Spurs covered that game, and the Spurs were a terrible team last season on the back-end of back-to-backs, not just for not covering, but for not even winning games...The Spurs are probably tired of hearing about it as I heard the announcers already mentioning the fact that they lost to Cleveland a few days back on a back-ender and how this is a budding "team issue" with Coach Popovich...Only Tony Parker played more than 30 minutes at Toronto yesterday (afternoon, by the way, so they made it to their NY hotel rooms at a normal hour Sunday night), and Parker played 32 minutes...I simply do not see fatigue being a factor here at all, and I would hope the Spurs can take care of this Knicks' team by more than 6 (juice was nice, so I bought it down, something I rarely do)...

Chicago Bulls -5 -- $220 to win $200

Same here, a rare buy-down for me, but the juice was favorable here...The Bulls have had 2 full days to think about their 41% shooting night vs. Sacramento at Home and how they blew a 15-point lead early in the second half...Milwaukee has had 2 nice wins sandwiched around a 17-point loss to Toronto...I don't see the Bulls losing 3 straight, so hopefully they get over this number...Maybe the Bulls will learn to finish this game unlike on Friday...

San Antonio/NY Knicks over 192.5 -- $101 to win $100

I wasn't going to bet this Over, but if the Spurs reached 197 yesterday at Toronto, I don't see any reason why this cannot hit 193...Knicks have yet to even have a good shooting game this season (and I doubt they will have a great one tonight), but I will take a shot here as the Spurs also reached 188 vs. Dallas, and the Mavs are playing poorly on offense thus far in this young season...In last year's game at MSG (also a 4-of-5 situational spot for SA), the game finished at 205...


Good Luck...brewers7

################################################## ###############
Monday's Picks:

Sides:

1) SA, 2) Chi, 3) Port, 4) Orl, 5) Sac, 6) GS, 7) Utah

Totals:

1) SA ov, 2) Orl un, 3) Port un, 4) Utah un, 5) GS ov, 6) Chi un, 7) Sac un

################################################## ###############
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
################################################## ###############
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 0-0
Last 3 days: 6-2 (+$479)
Last 7 days: 11-6 (-$2)
################################################## ###############
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
################################################## ###############
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
################################################## ###############
brewers7 is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #2 of 29 (permalink) Old 11-06-2006, 11:43 PM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 1,796
                     
Re: NBA Week 2 thread (11-6 in Week 1)...

Great to see you here brewers, best of luck!
Freeze17171 is offline  
post #3 of 29 (permalink) Old 11-07-2006, 03:52 AM
Registered User
 
SwiSha's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 39,787
                     
Re: NBA Week 2 thread (11-6 in Week 1)...

great picks brewers and welcome to the forum
SwiSha is offline  
post #4 of 29 (permalink) Old 11-07-2006, 04:07 AM Thread Starter
Registered User
 
brewers7's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 108
                     
Re: NBA Week 2 thread (11-6 in Week 1)...

Thanx guys, and Freeze, great to see you here, too...You were money in MLB this past summer, thanx for posting when you did...
brewers7 is offline  
post #5 of 29 (permalink) Old 11-07-2006, 07:58 AM Thread Starter
Registered User
 
brewers7's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 108
                     
Re: NBA Week 2 thread (11-6 in Week 1)...

################################################## ##############
Amateurs work until they get it right...Professionals work until they can't get it wrong... ################################################## ##############
Pride and Poise...Commitment to Excellence...Striving towards handicapping perfection...
################################################## ##############
Preseason posted plays: 9-3-1
################################################## ##############
Season To Date: 14-6, +$498

Sides: 7-2, +$452, Totals: 5-3, -$104, 2H Totals: 2-0, +$200, ML: 0-1, -$50

System Plays: 0-0

################################################## ##############

No line out yet on the Miami game due to Shaq's status and I do have a pair of 4-games-in-5-days games to look at also...I will be back with some thoughts on the other games and maybe another bet if I see anything that jumps out...

Tuesday, November 7

Atlanta/Cleveland under 187 -- $100 to win $107

I don't know how I can bet this game any other way...I have never been a big fan of betting Unders, but I have bet Unders a LOT more in the last 5 years than in the past and feel I have become a more complete handicapper by doing so...

Here is the way I look at this game from a handicapping stand-point:

Atanta is 6th and Cleveland is 10th in the league (on defense) in FG% allowed, while on offense, Atlanta is 28th and Cleveland is 24th in FG%...Also, both teams have played 3 games each, and all 3 games went Under for each team...The pace of the games for these 2 teams is slow, with total shots around 140 a game for the most part...

Let's break that down further:

With Cleveland, they have played San Antonio, who has 3 Overs and their ONLY Under in 4 games was against Cleveland...The Cavs also played Washington and the Wizards' ONLY Under in 3 games was against Cleveland...The Cavs also played Charlotte and Charlotte has 2 Unders in 3 games (CLE and Memphis)...

With Atlanta, they have played Philadelphia and the 76ers ONLY Under was against Atlanta in 3 games...Atlanta played the Knicks and NY's ONLY Under in 4 games was against Atlanta...And Atlanta played Orlando and the Magic's ONLY Under in 4 games was against Atlanta...

Do we need any more compelling evidence to point to the Under here?...Now hey, this is sports gambling and this game may fly Over the total just for the hell of it or the game may go to overtime and go Over the total, but to me, I can only bet this game Under or not bet the game...I will watch the line move (if any) and decide whether to add any more to this bet later (although I'll probably leave it at $100)...


Good Luck...brewers7

################################################## ###############
Tuesday's Picks:

pending...will be added in the afternoon...

################################################## ###############
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
################################################## ###############
Recent Results:
Yesterday: 3-0 (+$500)
Last 3 days: 6-0 (+$1000)
Last 7 days: 14-6 (+$498)
################################################## ###############
Database sample links: http://www.tricountyleague.com/TeamSample.xls
http://www.tricountyleague.com/SeasonBySeasonSample.xls
################################################## ###############
Words of advice: Past results do not guarantee future performance...Tail me when I am hot...Fade me when I am cold...Nobody wins every day...Only bet what you can afford to lose...Try not to chase losses...Tomorrow is another day...This is a marathon, not a sprint...Patience and Persistence...Do your homework...Money management…Bet with your head, not over it...Stay humble…Act professional…
################################################## ###############
brewers7 is offline  
post #6 of 29 (permalink) Old 11-07-2006, 09:15 AM
bad gambler
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Re: NBA Week 2 thread (11-6 in Week 1)...

Welcome aboard Steve and good to see another solid capper here - mostly Europeans and Australians who post in the bball forum here so good to have a 'local' helping us out
post #7 of 29 (permalink) Old 11-07-2006, 09:33 AM
Registered User
 
Mario66's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2004
Location: Helsinki, Finland
Age: 34
Posts: 5,731
                     
Re: NBA Week 2 thread (11-6 in Week 1)...

Welcome!

If you`re not gonna shoot, you`ll always miss.

Marat Safin
Mario Lemieux

Roger Federer

Carlitos Tevez

Simo Eerikäinen
Mario66 is offline  
post #8 of 29 (permalink) Old 11-07-2006, 09:59 AM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 1,796
                     
Re: NBA Week 2 thread (11-6 in Week 1)...

Quote:
Originally Posted by brewers7 View Post
Thanx guys, and Freeze, great to see you here, too...You were money in MLB this past summer, thanx for posting when you did...
Thanks, sorry I stopped posting towards the end of the season, went through a busy period of moving, switching jobs, and not having the internet handy. Never really got back into the flow of posting picks in MLB again.

Great day today!
Freeze17171 is offline  
post #9 of 29 (permalink) Old 11-07-2006, 08:41 PM Thread Starter
Registered User
 
brewers7's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 108
                     
Re: NBA Week 2 thread (11-6 in Week 1)...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Freeze17171 View Post
Thanks, sorry I stopped posting towards the end of the season, went through a busy period of moving, switching jobs, and not having the internet handy. Never really got back into the flow of posting picks in MLB again.

Great day today!

No need to apologize, my friend...I appreciated the effort...Thanx again...I will of course do my best to contribute here...

Hope everyone has a profitable NBA season...
brewers7 is offline  
post #10 of 29 (permalink) Old 11-07-2006, 10:52 PM Thread Starter
Registered User
 
brewers7's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 108
                     
Re: NBA Week 2 thread (11-6 in Week 1)...

Additional play:

Tuesday, November 7

Minnesota Timberwolves +8 -- $105 to win $100

There are 2 games tonight that have Away teams playing their 4th game in 5 nights and this is one of them...Ben tracking this trend religiously for more than 10 years...The general rule of thumb if you want to bet the 4th-game-5-nights trend is to always take the Away Team, no matter which team is playing their 4th game in 5 nights...I do not bet it blindly, but in the long run, you generally get value because the public squares always think the Away Team is "tired" playing their 4th game in 5 nights...In some cases, this may be true, but certainly not for all of them, and if you noticed, the Spurs line came down last night and the GS and Minny lines have both gone up today because the public will always bet against the "tired" Away team...

But other situational trends need to be considered...This year, the Clips barely covered against 4-of-5 Phoenix on NOV 4th, and I did buck the trend and bet the Clips because there were OTHER situational factors to consider, the big one being that this was a quick-revenge game and this was the second-time in 3 nights that the Clips played PHOE when the Clips had rest and PHOE did not...The Spurs were an easy choice last night because their starters were rested and their game the day before was in the afternoon, NOT at night, so they got into their hotel rooms at a normal hour with short travel and were NOT fatigued...

Tonight, we have GS and Minny both playing their 4th game in 5 nights...I picked both Away teams...But I will not bet GS because of the let-down situational factor after a big upset at Dallas last night...However I will bet Minnesota because they lost last night and are in bounce-back mode...The T-Wolves had two 4-of-5 games last year, both on the Road, and they covered the game where they lost the night before and they did NOT cover the game where they won the night before...This is somewhat typical for this trend...

The Lakers still seem to be adjusting to getting Kobe back as they pushed the spread and lost in his 2 games back...Minny has played the Lake-show tough the last 2 seasons and even though it appears that Lamar Odom is showing up to play this season and it appears as if the Lakers are much better early on, I won't lay 8 with this team any time soon...I'll take the 4-of-5 Dog here and hope that Minny keeps it close...


Good Luck...brewers7

################################################## ###############
Tuesday's Sides:

1) Hou, 2) Min, 3) Ind, 4) Sea, 5) GS, 6) Atl

Totals:

1) Atl un, 2) Ind ov, 3) Sea ov, 4) Hou un, 5) Min un, 6) GS un

################################################## ###############
Please note: Actual game results may vary from the opinions stated above...
################################################## ###############
brewers7 is offline  
post #11 of 29 (permalink) Old 11-08-2006, 12:26 AM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 326
                     
Thumbs up Re: NBA Week 2 thread (11-6 in Week 1)...

[QUOTE=brewers7;4417984
[B]Atlanta/Cleveland under 187 -- $100 to win $107 [/B]

Do we need any more compelling evidence to point to the Under here?...Now hey, this is sports gambling and this game may fly Over the total just for the hell of it or the game may go to overtime and go Over the total, but to me, I can only bet this game Under or not bet the game...I will watch the line move (if any) and decide whether to add any more to this bet later (although I'll probably leave it at $100)...

Good Luck...brewers7

QUOTE]

The evident is clear, You're the man when it's come to the NBA

Halftime
Atlanta 37- 38 Cleveland
GodOfGamblers is offline  
post #12 of 29 (permalink) Old 11-08-2006, 02:34 AM Thread Starter
Registered User
 
brewers7's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Posts: 108
                     
Re: NBA Week 2 thread (11-6 in Week 1)...

Well, unless a miracle OT happens...Frustrating, but bad beats happen...

I watched the final minute on satellite of the Cleveland game and it was painful...LeBron missed a free-throw with 6 seconds left that probably would have iced it (would have made it a 3-point game, ATL no timeouts, CLE may have fouled on purpose to prevent them from making a 3)...Then Lue throws up a floater at the buzzer that somehow goes in...

I wish books offered "regulation" Unders because I get burned about once a month at least on these Unders with OT...If I had bet more than $100, I would have hedged at halftime on the 2H Over, believe me...

The bottom line is the game was handicapped correctly, the pace and numbers of shots were as expected, and it took a miracle OT at the buzzer to cost me the win, but it is a long season, and I generally overcome these bad beats...

If Golden State covers though, Minny may not as I am not sure if both 4-of-5 games will come in tonight...Hope it does comes in, though, obviously...

I did make a play for Wednesday already:
################################################## ###############

Wednesday, November 8

N.Y. Knicks/Denver over 208 -- $525 to win $500

I guess I could have waited a few more minutes as the juice has moved even lower on the Over due to the announcement that Steve Francis is out indefinitely with an ankle sprain...This doesn't bother me a bit...With Stevie Franchise playing the first half against SA, the 1H stayed Under (all 4 Knicks games have stayed Under in the 1H and all 4 have gone Over in the 2H -- 1 was OT-aided) and in the 2H against SA, Francis was in street clothes and the Knicks scored plenty without him and earned the Over for the game without him playing...Thee Knicks have plenty of scorers, their problem is defense...Denver, NY and Phoenix have the 3 fastest-paced teams in the league and when any 2 of these 3 teams are playing each other this season, the total should not be less than 220...The Knicks have shot terribly EVERY game this season and yet still have 3 Overs (1 was OT-aided) out of 4 games...Denver shot 50% against Minny on November 3 and the total hit 221 and the T'Wolves certainly have a better defense than the Knicks...With a total of 208 and the pace this game should be at, if these teams just shoot about 46% or 47% for the game, this should go Over without too much problem...I thought about betting more, but with Francis out, I'll leave it at $500 as I would be shocked not to see this game hit 220...

################################################## ###############
brewers7 is offline  
post #13 of 29 (permalink) Old 11-08-2006, 02:45 AM
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Age: 38
Posts: 2,330
                     
Re: NBA Week 2 thread (11-6 in Week 1)...

Bad luck Brewers .. you were "moosed" on that one ..
Mr Flamboyant is offline  
post #14 of 29 (permalink) Old 11-08-2006, 05:07 AM
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Age: 38
Posts: 2,330
                     
Re: NBA Week 2 thread (11-6 in Week 1)...

BTW .. Liking the other side on the Nuggs / Knicks total ..
Mr Flamboyant is offline  
post #15 of 29 (permalink) Old 11-08-2006, 05:10 AM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2006
Posts: 326
                     
Re: NBA Week 2 thread (11-6 in Week 1)...

I think I jinxed you guys

Atlanta won in overtime 104-95
GodOfGamblers is offline  
Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Options

Register Now



In order to be able to post messages on the MensTennisForums.com forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.

User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.

Password:


Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.

Email Address:
OR

Log-in









Human Verification

In order to verify that you are a human and not a spam bot, please enter the answer into the following box below based on the instructions contained in the graphic.



Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page



Posting Rules  
You may post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

 
For the best viewing experience please update your browser to Google Chrome