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post #1 of 30 (permalink) Old 11-03-2006, 11:09 AM Thread Starter
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Talking NBA November 3rd

Toronto - Milwaukee OVER 205 pts $1.91

If you`re not gonna shoot, you`ll always miss.

Marat Safin
Mario Lemieux

Roger Federer

Carlitos Tevez

Simo Eerikäinen
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post #2 of 30 (permalink) Old 11-03-2006, 06:54 PM
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Re: NBA November 3rd

Trailblazers (+9) @ Warriors
So the Warriors get steamrolled by a Kobe-less Lakers team at home and now they open as a huge favorite again? Nelson's vow for less 3pt shots and better FT shooting failed miserably as they chucked 3/19 from long range and shot a piss poor 64% from the line (which was inflated by Ellis's late 7/8 from the line when the game was over). Jason Richardson is clearly still hurting and not in great basketball condition, if he can't produce to his usual level, the Warriors are in trouble. Meanwhile the Blazers had a great opening win on the road against a capable Sonics team. Randolph was unstoppable (nobody on the Warriors can guard him) and Roy looked like the odds on Rookie of the Year. Jack looked solid running the point and this is a much improved Blazer team over last year.
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post #3 of 30 (permalink) Old 11-03-2006, 06:57 PM
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Re: NBA November 3rd

no nba plays yet?
griz -3.5 and spurs -5 looks nice to me
also overs on orlando - phi
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post #4 of 30 (permalink) Old 11-03-2006, 07:24 PM
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Re: NBA November 3rd

Friday, November 3


Boston Celtics +2 (3 Units)

The Detroit Pistons are being overvalued by the books in this game because of their past. However, one thing I have learned over the years about the Pistons is that when they win, they win in impressive fashion and when they lose, they look like complete garbage. It seems like the Pistons are off to a rough start in the post-Ben Wallace era something that was to be expected. When asked to step up, Sheed decided to continue his babyish ways in their season opening loss to the Bucks and he decided to test David Stern's new rules. The result? His ass got tossed early and he left having shot 0 for 3 from the floor. What makes anyone think the Pistons can come into Boston and put together a better effort than in their opener? I just don't see why they would seeing that they have had problems winning big in Boston in the past. Last November, the Pistons walked into Boston and won 82-81 for their only visit of the season to Beantown. In that game, Ben Wallace managed to grab 15 key rebounds and I say key because no other player had more than 7 rebounds for the Pistons. Wallace also played 39 minutes in that game and the Pistons should struggle to replace him. Did anyone else notice that had the Pistons not shot 8 three pointers in their opener, the blowout loss to the Bucks would have been a lot bigger. Take into consideration that Detroit might rely on their three point shooting alot to compensate for the loss of Wallace and you have a problem. Boston held the Hornets to 1 for 11 shooting from three point land in their home opener. With Rasheed already disgruntled and Nazr Mohammed looking lost in this system, how are the Pistons going to account for Al Jefferson and Kendrick Perkins, two guys who love pounding the ball inside? The Pistons turned the ball over 22 times in the loss to Milwaukee and turnovers could continue to be a problem tonight because Boston is going to come out hungry for an Auerbach win. Bench points are going to be a big problem for the Pistons because apart from their starting five, only Ronald Murray looks like he could score significant poitns to help the team out. The Pistons will most likely be able to stop the Celtics in their tracks more often then not but I have a feeling they will once again miss the inside presence of Wallace and try to shoot too many three pointers in this game. An 0-2 start seems very likely at this point.

The Boston Celtics were extremely, and I mean extremely disappointed when they lost their opening game on Red Auerbach tribute night. Some of the players were saying after the game that they tried a little too hard to win that game for the fans and when you try too hard, you tend to make mistakes and it blows up in your face...as it did in that game. Well tonight is rebound time for the same fans and I think Boston is going to impress everyone and come out with a great attitude. The Celtics have the confidence to win this game and I say that bebause they lost to the Pistons by one point at home last season, and they were able to keep up with the Pistons in their other two meetings in Detroit. This time around, there is no Ben Wallace to harass and annoy Boston's players on the inside. Wallace was averaging 8.3 points per game with 12.7 rebounds per game against the Celtics and now that he is gone, look for Al Jefferson to the inside harraser. Paul Pierce was outstanding in the season opening loss but once again, he felt like the team could have done a lot more to win as a team and they didn't. Players like Delonte West and Sebastien Telfair were both very silent in the opener and that has to change. They both have to step things up and the Celtics need more points from the PG position. The fact that the Pistons allowed 105 points in their first game without Big Ben is concerning. I think if Boston wants to run and gun in this one, they can definitely win the game outright. I know the Celtics turned the ball over 19 times in their opener but Detroit forced only 8 turnover of their own in their opener and it looks like some of the Pistons players are having a hard time when it comes to giving a full effort. Telfair is going to have plenty of chances to move the ball inside and as long as the Celtics can have good ball movement, they should get the looks and matchup advantages they are looking for. Seeing that the Pistons don't have much production from their bench players, it's important for Boston to attack a lot when Detroit's starting five are out. The main man tonight? Al Jefferson...he needs to step it up huge when he's in and control the inside. The Celtics should have an even better effort tonight in their second straight home game and I don't see why they wouldn't win this game against a Detroit team that is overvalued and still trying to adjust to life without Ben.

I capped this game myself and discovered what Vegas is up to. The line shouldn'e be -2, it should either be a pk or be -1 for the Celtics but since the public still loves the Pistons, the public will continue to jump on lines like this. Had Vegas actually put the line where it was supposed to be, people would get suspicious and start betting on Boston. I like being on the Celtics here because they came so close to beating Detroit at home last year and now Wallace is gone.

Trend of the Game: The underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings


Boston 96, Detroit 94



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post #5 of 30 (permalink) Old 11-03-2006, 07:31 PM
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Re: NBA November 3rd

Detroit Pisto(les) -2

GL
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post #6 of 30 (permalink) Old 11-03-2006, 07:44 PM
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Re: NBA November 3rd

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Originally Posted by Freeze17171 View Post
Trailblazers (+9) @ Warriors
So the Warriors get steamrolled by a Kobe-less Lakers team at home and now they open as a huge favorite again? Nelson's vow for less 3pt shots and better FT shooting failed miserably as they chucked 3/19 from long range and shot a piss poor 64% from the line (which was inflated by Ellis's late 7/8 from the line when the game was over). Jason Richardson is clearly still hurting and not in great basketball condition, if he can't produce to his usual level, the Warriors are in trouble. Meanwhile the Blazers had a great opening win on the road against a capable Sonics team. Randolph was unstoppable (nobody on the Warriors can guard him) and Roy looked like the odds on Rookie of the Year. Jack looked solid running the point and this is a much improved Blazer team over last year.
Freeze what is your thoughts on that total 206.5? Before I went to bed it was a ridiculous 212.5 but still think it might be a bit too high. I know you mentioned the way Nelson using his rotation and positions to set this team to run and gun but on the flipside not sure Blazers are a team that is going to try and take the Warriors on a shootout. Thoughts?
post #7 of 30 (permalink) Old 11-03-2006, 08:48 PM
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Re: NBA November 3rd

Playing some early games:

UNDER 192.5 Magic v Sixers

Obviously it is too early in the season to make any bold claims but after reading through a lot of press in the preseason and last few days I get the feeling Cheeks is making a concerted effort on defense. Their opener against the Hawks showed some signs of that.

"It's more of a pride thing," coach Maurice Cheeks said after yesterday's practice at Philadelphia College of Osteopathic Medicine. "It's a year long thing that's not made in one game. Obviously, it's early and we have a long way to go, but that's the message we want to send."

http://www.philly.com/mld/dailynews/sports/15917756.htm

Magic were impressive against Bulls at home and topped the 100 mark but that was after Bulls came off a huge win against Heat, so a letdown on defense was somewhat expected from them.


Hornets to cover +4.5 v Pacers

I really like the look of this Hornets team this season with their offseason buys on top of the young squad they had last season. Stojakovic, Jackson and Chandler to complement West and Paul makes for a very strong squad. They went to Boston with all the emotion around Red's death and still came away with the S/U win. Always dangerous fading the Paces at home but didn't really see anything in their win against the Bobcats to suggest they would be a contender this season in the East. Also factor in that Bobcats lost Wallace in the 2nd quarter.

I won't be suprised if Hornets win this S/U as well.

Last edited by bad gambler; 11-03-2006 at 09:24 PM. Reason: Change of plays
post #8 of 30 (permalink) Old 11-03-2006, 09:11 PM
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Re: NBA November 3rd

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Originally Posted by bad gambler View Post
Freeze what is your thoughts on that total 206.5? Before I went to bed it was a ridiculous 212.5 but still think it might be a bit too high. I know you mentioned the way Nelson using his rotation and positions to set this team to run and gun but on the flipside not sure Blazers are a team that is going to try and take the Warriors on a shootout. Thoughts?
The Blazers seemed to be running with the a similar up tempo Sonics team in their opening game and did win a shootout. Hard to say whether the over/under is solid here as I'm not sold on the Warriors offense clicking yet and Richardson did not look like himself at all in the first game. However, they have the firepower to put up big numbers. The under is tempting, but neither team prides itself on defense so it could be dangerous. I can't really get a good read on the total for this one.

Liking the Hornets play, they were undervalued in their first game and seem to be undervalued again.
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post #9 of 30 (permalink) Old 11-03-2006, 09:18 PM
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Re: NBA November 3rd

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UNDER 204.5 Hawks v Knicks

This is another interesting total and one I believe based on games played between the two teams last season. Hawks were shocking from the floor in their first game, at home would expect a better performance but unless there is a 60 point qtr somewhere I see this one going under 200.

Somewhat of a contrarian pick as last 5 Knicks road games in Atlanta have gone 'over'


Slight change to the play here involving these two teams. Further look I prefer the side in this one so scrapping the total and rolling with

Hawks to cover -2.5 v Knicks

Knicks barely got by a undermanned Grizzlies team and generally this series has favoured the home team in the past few seasons. Hawks are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 home games against the Knicks and I'd expect a better showing in their home opener after their inept performance in Philly

Will see how these fare before looking out West in the later games

good luck
post #10 of 30 (permalink) Old 11-03-2006, 10:43 PM
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Re: NBA November 3rd

Orlando -5.5 over 76ers..... Gonna be a blowout....trust the champ
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post #11 of 30 (permalink) Old 11-03-2006, 10:44 PM
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Re: NBA November 3rd

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler View Post
Playing some early games:

UNDER 192.5 Magic v Sixers

Obviously it is too early in the season to make any bold claims but after reading through a lot of press in the preseason and last few days I get the feeling Cheeks is making a concerted effort on defense. Their opener against the Hawks showed some signs of that.

"It's more of a pride thing," coach Maurice Cheeks said after yesterday's practice at Philadelphia College of Osteopathic Medicine. "It's a year long thing that's not made in one game. Obviously, it's early and we have a long way to go, but that's the message we want to send."

http://www.philly.com/mld/dailynews/sports/15917756.htm

Magic were impressive against Bulls at home and topped the 100 mark but that was after Bulls came off a huge win against Heat, so a letdown on defense was somewhat expected from them.


Hornets to cover +4.5 v Pacers

I really like the look of this Hornets team this season with their offseason buys on top of the young squad they had last season. Stojakovic, Jackson and Chandler to complement West and Paul makes for a very strong squad. They went to Boston with all the emotion around Red's death and still came away with the S/U win. Always dangerous fading the Paces at home but didn't really see anything in their win against the Bobcats to suggest they would be a contender this season in the East. Also factor in that Bobcats lost Wallace in the 2nd quarter.

I won't be suprised if Hornets win this S/U as well.

Bobcats has had the wood over Pacers in the past,Good luck on the Hornets,agree those 3 trio's with Paul n West should be a handful!!!
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post #12 of 30 (permalink) Old 11-03-2006, 10:55 PM
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Re: NBA November 3rd

over 191.5 orlando vs philly
and orlando to win the match 1.50
good luck
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post #13 of 30 (permalink) Old 11-03-2006, 11:12 PM
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Re: NBA November 3rd

nba: 0-3 and -2.4

pistons ML @ 1.84 {3.2}
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post #14 of 30 (permalink) Old 11-03-2006, 11:13 PM
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Re: NBA November 3rd

Fading the Public day,Sac +6.5pts n Utah Jazz +7.5pts,was tossing up between the both pics but theyre were just as tempting!!!
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post #15 of 30 (permalink) Old 11-03-2006, 11:24 PM
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Re: NBA November 3rd

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Originally Posted by kutafon View Post
nba: 0-3 and -2.4

pistons ML @ 1.84 {3.2}
3.2 k??
very riski play kuta but good luck
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