Mar 22 NBAA - MensTennisForums.com
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post #1 of 85 (permalink) Old 03-22-2006, 03:58 PM Thread Starter
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Mar 22 NBAA

another day to get your $$ back guys. haha... yesterday is brutal ... in my case, i lost a parlay which has Heats and Suns in it. It figured a trend from yesterday's games: all playoff boarder line teams play well(Hornet, Jazz, Sac). i knew Hornet would have a great rebounce after some terrible loses at home. and for Jazz, it just outperform Suns in many ways in the second half. It's hard to predict the Suns would lose that one given they had lost in SA. but one thing has been forgotten is Jazz played well against Memphis in couple days ago. (memphis is a good team in great form now) So I think that's pretty hard to see. In Mia case, i should bet on all the home teams that against it. (i will do +7 teasers on those home team) It's almost a guarentee win in those past games. (Also i have no knowledge about the absence of Shaq) Mia is just not so threatening as Sun, Spur, Mavericks.
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post #2 of 85 (permalink) Old 03-22-2006, 04:36 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Mar 22 NBAA

Charlotte vs Cleveland: for this whole season i just do not have much faith in the Cavs, especially after they lost Hughs. the line is about -11 today, and i really wonder i should do a +7 or -7. I don't know a +18 on charlotte is well enough to cover a possible blow out on them. and -4.5 on Cavs? consider they recent form it's a not a sure thing. One thing is sure that Cav will win, but it's just by how much point. I am pretty conservative on this one, so hope you guys can help.

chicago vs Indiana. As i said yesterday Indiana is just another team without O'Neal. Peja hype is over and they play terrible. But again chicago is not a good road team, so i kinda expect a dog fight in this game. Chicago may go ahead in the first half, then Indian come back in the second half? ok... i will probably do +12 on chicago

NY vs Orlando: NY is missing some key players and they are away, the line is -6.5, for magics, so i will do -1 on magic

Hawks vs Sixers: AI is back, but does it means they are gonna play well? remember last time AI return Sixers didn't win. and for me Hawks is in good form. So a risky bet on them Hawks +15

Toronto vs Boston: it's another dog fight. a high scoring game. i probably should do Celtics -1 on this one. (But i really do like Toronto, i dont know if a +12 is good enough) or i just do -1?

Miami vs Detroit: it's an obvious choice, Det -1

Milwakee vs Seattle: another tough call. i like ray allen, but Bucks is in great form now. and seattle is just so inconsistent. i think bucks will lead in the first half. and i don't know how the seattle come back in the second half.

Spurs vs Denver: denver has a great run last week , they won most of the road games. althought Camby is questionable, but K mart is back which i think is more important than Camby. Also consider Spur's bad performence last night. i should really consider Denver +9 on this.

Sac vs Laker, anohter great game and it will show on ESPN i think.; both teams are fighting for a play off spot, believe it or not, a blow out on either side is impossible. a close game and lakers probably can pull it off becuase it's home court and the MVP KOBE is ready. Also Laker played well these days, and i don't think they will have lost by 16 last time in Sac. but again Sac is more talented team than laker. so i will do +10 on Sac
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post #3 of 85 (permalink) Old 03-22-2006, 06:06 PM
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Re: Mar 22 NBAA

Fancy Heat v Pistons to go over 194.5.
Not happy with the spread of minus 7.5, Pistons seem to build good leads but then let the lead slip late on. At the same time I would not be taking Heat plus 7.5.
Will be having a bet on this game as I will be watching it so probably just go with the overs, anyone comment?
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post #4 of 85 (permalink) Old 03-22-2006, 06:26 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Mar 22 NBAA

without shaq i dont really know how many points heat can score. 194.5 means both team has to score at least 97 points . i just don't have any good prediction on it
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post #5 of 85 (permalink) Old 03-22-2006, 07:36 PM
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Re: Mar 22 NBAA

Is the big diesel definitely OUT for tonight?

Eastern conference final preview, on national TV hard to see him missing this even if he is not 100%

I am lining up the Nuggets to take out the Spurs in a S/U win..still looking into it
post #6 of 85 (permalink) Old 03-22-2006, 07:38 PM
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Re: Mar 22 NBAA

And if ever the Pistons are going to cover, tonight is the night....
post #7 of 85 (permalink) Old 03-22-2006, 07:40 PM
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Re: Mar 22 NBAA

Think I might pass tonights NBA lottery. Got a big win on Miami and would like to continue to get wins

No guts, no glory!
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post #8 of 85 (permalink) Old 03-22-2006, 07:45 PM
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Re: Mar 22 NBAA

Bulls to beat the Pacers - $2.70

&

Nuggets to beat the Spurs - $2.15


good luck
post #9 of 85 (permalink) Old 03-22-2006, 09:57 PM
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Re: Mar 22 NBAA

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
And if ever the Pistons are going to cover, tonight is the night....
You think the pistons will cover minus 7.5 tonight?
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post #10 of 85 (permalink) Old 03-22-2006, 09:58 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Mar 22 NBAA

do you guys wonder that with extensive analysis , $$ from sports gambling is way better than $$ from the stock market? I am still a college student, not much knowledge about the stock market. but from what i heard only those big player in NY do get out lots of $$ from the stock market. does it sounds like the bookers that we play against? I don't know, just a little thought on it. How you guys think?
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post #11 of 85 (permalink) Old 03-22-2006, 10:01 PM
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Re: Mar 22 NBAA

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dublin Mick
You think the pistons will cover minus 7.5 tonight?

The way the Pistons have worked this year, they will do just enough to beat the bad teams i.e. have huge leads and then don't give a shit come garbage time hence you will find that is the reason for the shocking ATS record over the past month or so.

But when they are up against the contenders, they are merciless e.g. spurs both home and away. The first game against the heat, they controlled the whole game, the second game in Miami in Feb they were up by 16 odd with around 3min to go in the game before Wade went ballistic and got the Heat over the line.

I took them at -7 tonight as well since I have the game on the box.

Last edited by bad gambler; 03-22-2006 at 10:04 PM.
post #12 of 85 (permalink) Old 03-22-2006, 10:03 PM
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Re: Mar 22 NBAA

Quote:
Originally Posted by theonekyuuto
do you guys wonder that with extensive analysis , $$ from sports gambling is way better than $$ from the stock market? I am still a college student, not much knowledge about the stock market. but from what i heard only those big player in NY do get out lots of $$ from the stock market. does it sounds like the bookers that we play against? I don't know, just a little thought on it. How you guys think?

no contest IMO, if you put in the time sports gambling is very fruitful
post #13 of 85 (permalink) Old 03-22-2006, 10:10 PM
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Re: Mar 22 NBAA

I personally don't like -7.5 for Detriot mainly because Detriot shoots too many damn 3s. A bad shooting day at the 3pt stretch usually kills a team's lead. Thats how they lost the the Lakers last time, thats why Suns lost yesterday

If you saw suns went for like 6 minutes without scoring in the 4th, and lost a huge lead in the 3rd, because they kept going for idiot 3 pters that weren't landing in.. sure Suns lead in 3pters but thats not what wins you games... shooting 3s usually loses your lead and loses your game rather than wins them.

Last week duke almost lost to a 25pt underdog in R1 because their boys couldnt settle for making easy 2s, and had to go for the big crowd pleasing 3s. They got their act together in the 2nd half just in time to win but not enough to cover.

My pt being, I stay away from teams that shoot too many 3s because a bad day they'll screw you.

Of course if no shaq then detriot will roll.

No guts, no glory!

Last edited by TwistServe; 03-22-2006 at 10:14 PM.
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post #14 of 85 (permalink) Old 03-22-2006, 10:16 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Mar 22 NBAA

Somehow i just wonder that 2nd half betting is better than point spread. they both have the same odds but 2nd half is like a conditional probability. given something happen in the 1st half and u predict the 2nd half. I have done analysis on my past betting history, and it turns out that my 2nd half betting is way better than my point spread and parlay. For 2nd half betting, there are four choices, point spread for both teams and total for both teams. For example, the Seattle and Sac game last night, the original PS and total is -5 and 207 something, but first half is 60 - 58 seattle up by 2. Then the 2nd half line is 106.5 and -7.5. most people(or i should say some people) would think, the parlay under 106.5 and -7.5 is quit impossible because seattle is playing wll in the 1st half and both team score well. At this point, what i did bet is total over 106.5, and sac won the 2nd half(ML), and the odd is 1.25, the upset thing is the total is not even close to 90 at the end. So i lost that bet. But what i learn is you can better predict the 2nd half line given the 1st half result. Well, yes i did lost that bet, but i did win the other two, which are under 89 2nd half for Houston and Dallas, and under 105.5 for Jazz and suns in 2nd half. So i am not saying it's mostly likely under total in the 2nd half. but what i am saying is, if the first half 's total is more than the 1/2 of the originaly game total line, then it's possible the 2nd half is under the line that the booker posted out. Of course this has to depend on what the two teams are playing, for Seattle and Sac. we know Sac was gonna come back in the 2nd half, and we probably expect a dog fight with Seattle. but Seattle has posted a record of scoring low when they are facing other team's come back. So that's why the total is under 106.5. Also, u can tell 106.5 a pretty tough line to cross, when both team score well in the first half.(fatigue?) Any opinions?

Last edited by theonekyuuto; 03-22-2006 at 10:20 PM.
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post #15 of 85 (permalink) Old 03-22-2006, 11:10 PM
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Re: Mar 22 NBAA

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
Bulls to beat the Pacers - $2.70

&

Nuggets to beat the Spurs - $2.15


good luck
Absolutely love da pics!!!!!good luck
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