Bolar i was a little sceptical about your method but I watched the Tigers-Kings game in full last night and these totals in the 160's are way to high for NBL. The pattern of game play last night suggested to me that very few matches will reach the 160's and most will stay in the 150's imo. Or maybe the tigers shooting was just aweful I don't know. Anyway for tonight
Kings vs Breakers UNDER 165.5
Crocs vs Taipans UNDER 161.5
Crocs to cover -3.5
36ers vs Cats UNDER 166.5
I don't have the stats available, but the last two seasons I have visually observed and I would suggest that if you bet under in every game the last two years, you would have made a 40% profit. So many games go under and it looks like nothing has changed this year.
The reason why all these games don't reach 160 is because the players are shit and can't shoot. Now that the three point line is out further, you will see teams wanting to defend more and make teams shoot from outside the perimeter which will result in a lot of missed baskets, thus under.
I will be highly surprised if this Sydney v NZ game reaches 150 tonight. 140 is the logical total.
Cairns v Crocs, who knows. I liked over initally because both teams, particularly Cairns have strong offence. If the 3 point line wasn't as far out as it was, I would probably take over.
The Sydney v NZ game will end something like 78 - 70.
The Cairns v Townsville game will end something like 82-75
Last year, the books had totals set in the mid to high 160's and low 170's for a few rounds. It took them a while to get onto it and then started setting totals in the mid to high 150's.
IMO, the totals in all matches should have been:
Sydney v Tigers - 158.5
Cairns v Townsville - 161.5
Sydney v New Zealand - 158.5
Adelaide v Perth - 158.5