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post #1 of 22 (permalink) Old 10-14-2010, 05:06 AM Thread Starter
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NBL Round 1

Wollongong v Gold Coast

5 units Wollongong -1.5 @ $1.90

Wollongong were great at home last season. They should be too strong for the Blaze in this opener.

Sydney v Melbourne

7 units Under 166.5 @ $1.90

Sydney are concentrating on defence this season. In the opening night, the nerves will be up and that should result in a lot of mixed baskets. Put it this way, if you bet on every game last year to go under, you would make a profit. This one should go under.
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post #2 of 22 (permalink) Old 10-14-2010, 09:33 PM Thread Starter
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Re: NBL Round 1

I'm also trialing something else. Something, if I managed to do the last two years, would have made a huge profit. This is with another account. Every match, bet under.

3 units Wollongong under 168.5 @ $1.90
3 units Sydney under 166.5 @ $1.90
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post #3 of 22 (permalink) Old 10-15-2010, 06:06 AM
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Re: NBL Round 1

Hi Bolar

Wollongong -2 @ 1.90
Melbourne -5 @ 1.90


atb
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post #4 of 22 (permalink) Old 10-15-2010, 06:21 AM Thread Starter
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Re: NBL Round 1

You've been quiet lately.

Glad to see you're on the Hawks too. Despite the Blaze's strong roster on paper, I can't see them doing it.
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post #5 of 22 (permalink) Old 10-15-2010, 06:59 AM
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Re: NBL Round 1

Havent even logged on here since February. Good to see the NBL back and the Sydney Kings back. I despise the Tigers but reckon they will be too strong tonight. I actually liked the OVERS in that game but might hold off.
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post #6 of 22 (permalink) Old 10-15-2010, 07:06 AM
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Re: NBL Round 1

Blaze to beat Hawks - $2.15

gl
post #7 of 22 (permalink) Old 10-15-2010, 10:45 AM Thread Starter
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Re: NBL Round 1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolar Bolabi View Post
Wollongong v Gold Coast

5 units Wollongong -1.5 @ $1.90

Wollongong were great at home last season. They should be too strong for the Blaze in this opener.

Sydney v Melbourne

7 units Under 166.5 @ $1.90

Sydney are concentrating on defence this season. In the opening night, the nerves will be up and that should result in a lot of mixed baskets. Put it this way, if you bet on every game last year to go under, you would make a profit. This one should go under.

3 units Wollongong under 168.5 @ $1.90
3 units Sydney under 166.5 @ $1.90


Winner x 4

How I will work this record is my Season record and my experiment record. Both are not related to each other. Both are seperate accounts. Will add them together at the end of the year.

SR (Season Record) +10.8 units

SER (Season Experiment Record) +5.4 units
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post #8 of 22 (permalink) Old 10-15-2010, 08:08 PM
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Re: NBL Round 1

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Originally Posted by bad gambler View Post
Blaze to beat Hawks - $2.15

gl
lost
post #9 of 22 (permalink) Old 10-16-2010, 02:44 AM Thread Starter
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Re: NBL Round 1

Regular Season Play

7 units Sydney v New Zealand - Under 165.5 @ $1.90

Experimental Season Play

3 units Sydney v New Zealand - Under 165.5 @ $1.90

3 units Townsville v Cairns - Under 161.5 @ $1.90

I was originally leaning over with the Townsville game, but will stick with the experiment.
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post #10 of 22 (permalink) Old 10-16-2010, 07:04 AM
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Re: NBL Round 1

Bolar i was a little sceptical about your method but I watched the Tigers-Kings game in full last night and these totals in the 160's are way to high for NBL. The pattern of game play last night suggested to me that very few matches will reach the 160's and most will stay in the 150's imo. Or maybe the tigers shooting was just aweful I don't know. Anyway for tonight

Kings vs Breakers UNDER 165.5
Crocs vs Taipans UNDER 161.5
Crocs to cover -3.5


For tomorrow:
36ers vs Cats UNDER 166.5

atb

Last edited by Bolelli Ultra; 10-16-2010 at 07:09 AM.
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post #11 of 22 (permalink) Old 10-16-2010, 07:08 AM
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Re: NBL Round 1

Also for anyone who uses Centrebet for their NBL betting like I do, they currently have a promotion where if u put an NBL bet on and it loses, they will give you a freebet up to the value of $25. Not bad if you want to use those freebets for some long shot multis or whatever.
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post #12 of 22 (permalink) Old 10-16-2010, 07:43 AM Thread Starter
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Re: NBL Round 1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolelli Ultra View Post
Bolar i was a little sceptical about your method but I watched the Tigers-Kings game in full last night and these totals in the 160's are way to high for NBL. The pattern of game play last night suggested to me that very few matches will reach the 160's and most will stay in the 150's imo. Or maybe the tigers shooting was just aweful I don't know. Anyway for tonight

Kings vs Breakers UNDER 165.5
Crocs vs Taipans UNDER 161.5
Crocs to cover -3.5


For tomorrow:
36ers vs Cats UNDER 166.5

atb
I don't have the stats available, but the last two seasons I have visually observed and I would suggest that if you bet under in every game the last two years, you would have made a 40% profit. So many games go under and it looks like nothing has changed this year.

The reason why all these games don't reach 160 is because the players are shit and can't shoot. Now that the three point line is out further, you will see teams wanting to defend more and make teams shoot from outside the perimeter which will result in a lot of missed baskets, thus under.

I will be highly surprised if this Sydney v NZ game reaches 150 tonight. 140 is the logical total.

Cairns v Crocs, who knows. I liked over initally because both teams, particularly Cairns have strong offence. If the 3 point line wasn't as far out as it was, I would probably take over.

The Sydney v NZ game will end something like 78 - 70.

The Cairns v Townsville game will end something like 82-75

Last year, the books had totals set in the mid to high 160's and low 170's for a few rounds. It took them a while to get onto it and then started setting totals in the mid to high 150's.

IMO, the totals in all matches should have been:

Sydney v Tigers - 158.5
Cairns v Townsville - 161.5
Sydney v New Zealand - 158.5
Adelaide v Perth - 158.5
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post #13 of 22 (permalink) Old 10-16-2010, 08:54 AM
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Re: NBL Round 1

Interesting to see why they have started with such high totals and even more interesting to see the totals they set for next weeks matches. Should be interesting.
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post #14 of 22 (permalink) Old 10-16-2010, 09:12 AM Thread Starter
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Re: NBL Round 1

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bolelli Ultra View Post
Interesting to see why they have started with such high totals and even more interesting to see the totals they set for next weeks matches. Should be interesting.
Where are they?
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post #15 of 22 (permalink) Old 10-16-2010, 09:43 AM
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Re: NBL Round 1

I mean as in it will be interesting to see what they set....
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