Surely if you can only get +1 you take the ML in this instance?
Yep and in the long run it pays to. Too many people make the mistake of taking more juice in all sports on a team / player needing them to perform only slightly better.
To give an example I run an NHL contest and one of the contestants always takes +1.5 pucklines on every team.
The juice when say the ML dog is +100 the puckline will be around
+1.5 -265. This season I have worked out in only 5 occasions out of about 30 picks has the ML not won as well as the puckline.
You do the maths, far more profitable in the long run to take the ML. This is just an example it applies for all sports.
Nothing new to me, but may be to others so just thought I would mention it.