Hamburg Masters Outright - MensTennisForums.com
Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools
post #1 of 31 (permalink) Old 05-14-2006, 09:21 AM
bad gambler
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Question Hamburg Masters Outright

I'm of the belief that given both Nadal and Federer will have played back to back clay Masters finals, both will not be playing in Hamburg. I realise that Federer is the defending champion, but his appearances in both the Monte Carlo and Rome final, regardless of whether he loses the final today will have made up for the points he would lose should he pull out, and Nadal having not played last year obviously would not be disadvantaged. Another interesting point is that Almagro, who I would consider as the 3rd best dirtballer in the world on form at the moment, has decided not to play either.

Because of the gulf in the quality of dirtballers between Nadal & Federer to the rest of the field, it gives you the chance to exploit the large prices for players listed 3rd favourite and beyond.

So going to try the following, betting "1 unit" on the following:

Code:
Player           Odds
Gasquet         $26.00
Gaudio          $26.00
Gonzalez        $26.00
Ljubicic        $26.00
Ferrer          $34.00
Safin           $41.00
Robredo         $41.00
Acasuso         $51.00
Davydenko       $51.00
Ferrero         $51.00
Monfils         $51.00
Berdych         $81.00
So the outlay here is 12 units, I'm getting on this now before the Rome final as afterwards should the announcement be made that both Federer and Nadal don't decide to play, clearly the value from the above strategy is gone.

And should either or both decide to play, obviously the chances of any of the above listed players reduce dramatically but would still feel it was worth a shot and will accept the loss.

good luck

Last edited by bad gambler; 05-14-2006 at 09:25 AM.
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
post #2 of 31 (permalink) Old 05-14-2006, 10:01 AM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 2,696
                     
Re: Hamburg Masters Outright

Save yourself a 4 units.. don't bet on:

Monfils
Safin
Ferrero
Berdych


No guts, no glory!
TwistyServe is offline  
post #3 of 31 (permalink) Old 05-14-2006, 10:27 AM
bad gambler
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Hamburg Masters Outright

Uhmmm, Monfils would more than likely have been playing in the final in Rome if there was no Rafa or Federer this tournament, kind of the purpose of this thread....
post #4 of 31 (permalink) Old 05-14-2006, 11:29 AM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2004
Posts: 13
 
Re: Hamburg Masters Outright

Who is offering these odds?
stinker is offline  
post #5 of 31 (permalink) Old 05-14-2006, 11:50 AM
bad gambler
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Hamburg Masters Outright

Quote:
Originally Posted by stinker
Who is offering these odds?

centrebet
post #6 of 31 (permalink) Old 05-14-2006, 11:55 AM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Posts: 10
                     
Re: Hamburg Masters Outright

Hi Bad Gambler,

May I ask you some questions?

How did you find the centrebet odds?

Are they posted on a bet comparison service?

Are centrebet usually first up with tennis odds?

Thanks,

Biff
Biff is offline  
post #7 of 31 (permalink) Old 05-14-2006, 09:03 PM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Posts: 974
                     
Re: Hamburg Masters Outright

A 5 set marathon last night is all good for you BG. GL
andrew057 is offline  
post #8 of 31 (permalink) Old 05-14-2006, 11:10 PM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 892
                     
Re: Hamburg Masters Outright

interesting idea bg, GL with it...
Anders is offline  
post #9 of 31 (permalink) Old 05-14-2006, 11:34 PM
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 45,653
                     
Re: Hamburg Masters Outright

FEDERER is playing at hamburg and he'll be defending his Clay Title.

happy928 is offline  
post #10 of 31 (permalink) Old 05-15-2006, 01:18 PM
bad gambler
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Hamburg Masters Outright

Quote:
Originally Posted by happy928
FEDERER is playing at hamburg and he'll be defending his Clay Title.

Well you clearly are not the manager of Federer

Both have officially withdrawn, booyah!
post #11 of 31 (permalink) Old 05-15-2006, 01:29 PM
bad gambler
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Hamburg Masters Outright

Now lets us pray some 100/1 shot doesn't come in and steal this title
post #12 of 31 (permalink) Old 05-15-2006, 01:43 PM
Senior Member
 
shotgun's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 12,570
                     
Re: Hamburg Masters Outright

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
Now lets us pray some 100/1 shot doesn't come in and steal this title
Yeah, remember what happened in the last TMS without both Federer and Nadal.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaap View Post
The tennis equivalent of two old bald men fighting over a comb.
shotgun is offline  
post #13 of 31 (permalink) Old 05-15-2006, 01:51 PM
bad gambler
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Hamburg Masters Outright

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shotgun Blues
Yeah, remember what happened in the last TMS without both Federer and Nadal.

yer, i took that into account - but now having a second look at the draw there are a couple of names in hindsight I probably should have included in the above list who were both paying >$100........
post #14 of 31 (permalink) Old 05-15-2006, 01:54 PM
Registered User
 
DeccyB123's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 2,453
                     
Re: Hamburg Masters Outright

Was Nieminen one? I really think he's got a good chance here, he's in some good form, and this is a big opportunity without Federer and Nadal.
DeccyB123 is offline  
post #15 of 31 (permalink) Old 05-15-2006, 02:44 PM
bad gambler
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
Re: Hamburg Masters Outright

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeccyB123
Was Nieminen one? I really think he's got a good chance here, he's in some good form, and this is a big opportunity without Federer and Nadal.

He was $41, because I was in a rush as i figured CB would pull down the mkt soon I kind of missed him

I also don't think he has the clay pedigree as yet to win a Masters tournament, famous last words

Last edited by bad gambler; 05-15-2006 at 02:52 PM.
Reply

Quick Reply
Message:
Options

Register Now



In order to be able to post messages on the MensTennisForums.com forums, you must first register.
Please enter your desired user name, your email address and other required details in the form below.

User Name:
Password
Please enter a password for your user account. Note that passwords are case-sensitive.

Password:


Confirm Password:
Email Address
Please enter a valid email address for yourself.

Email Address:
OR

Log-in









Human Verification

In order to verify that you are a human and not a spam bot, please enter the answer into the following box below based on the instructions contained in the graphic.



Thread Tools
Show Printable Version Show Printable Version
Email this Page Email this Page



Posting Rules  
You may post new threads
You may post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are On
Pingbacks are On
Refbacks are On

 
For the best viewing experience please update your browser to Google Chrome