I'm of the belief that given both Nadal and Federer will have played back to back clay Masters finals, both will not be playing in Hamburg. I realise that Federer is the defending champion, but his appearances in both the Monte Carlo and Rome final, regardless of whether he loses the final today will have made up for the points he would lose should he pull out, and Nadal having not played last year obviously would not be disadvantaged. Another interesting point is that Almagro, who I would consider as the 3rd best dirtballer in the world on form at the moment, has decided not to play either.
Because of the gulf in the quality of dirtballers between Nadal & Federer to the rest of the field, it gives you the chance to exploit the large prices for players listed 3rd favourite and beyond.
So going to try the following, betting "1 unit" on the following:
So the outlay here is 12 units, I'm getting on this now before the Rome final as afterwards should the announcement be made that both Federer and Nadal don't decide to play, clearly the value from the above strategy is gone.
And should either or both decide to play, obviously the chances of any of the above listed players reduce dramatically but would still feel it was worth a shot and will accept the loss.