Freestylin' Friday! - MensTennisForums.com

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post #1 of 73 (permalink) Old 05-04-2006, 05:42 PM Thread Starter
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Freestylin' Friday!

Some very interesting match-ups but the odds provided for some of the matche are fairly poor though.

Munich

Karlovic over Melzer - if Ivo's energy is good enough, he should win. Melzer holds a 2/0 h2h lead but their last meeting was a couple of years ago and Ivo was new on the ATP scene then. Melzer notoriously struggles with serve-volleyers and has even lost to Rusedski and Fish on clay Not sure of odds...would have to be over 1.70 for Ivo for me to consider backing him so it is unlikely I will be.

Nieminen over Vik @ 1.22 - little explanation necessary...no chance of an upset unless Jarkko fancies making it early to Rome - he is not the sort of player I'd expect to do that.


Estoril

Portas over Gimelstob @ 1.40 - Gimel was lucky (and did well) to come back twice this week...should be one too many and he plays a fairly decent opponent. That said, the pair played doubles this week (and lost R1) so maybe we could see a repeat of the Rochus/Muller type match?

Davydenko over Muller @ 1.30 - rather generous odds and I have no idea why. Again, as with Nieminen, Davydenko won't lose this match unless he wants an early ticket to Rome...as he impressed against Safin, I think it is unlikely he'd want to tank...and he has a good chance of winning his first title in ages - surely that is worth staying for?


If I play anything, I would play Portas x Nieminen @ 1.71...seems the safer option out of all the matches.

If I don't decide to play that will be 3rd day in succession that I take a back seat...can't do that!
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post #2 of 73 (permalink) Old 05-04-2006, 05:59 PM
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Re: Freestylin' Friday!

From looking at the posts from people that watched the match, it was more Marat losing than Davy winning. Davy should beat the volatile Muller, but he hasn't been the most consistent player himself lately.

Haha, beware of the dreaded doubles partner matches, Rochus/Muller and Clement/Mahut went very very wrong. Not to mention Justin has been killing chalk all week long.

Nieminen is the safest bet I think also, if Karlovic is near even odds he is probably worth a play as well.
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post #3 of 73 (permalink) Old 05-04-2006, 09:33 PM
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Re: Freestylin' Friday!

I actually like Melzer today, he's really been hitting his form on this surface. Karlovic just scraped by Phau, who I don't rate at all.
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post #4 of 73 (permalink) Old 05-04-2006, 09:45 PM
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Re: Freestylin' Friday!

how can you think Ivo is a good bet? i'm on Melzer at this odds! very incredible for me! Real claycounter against a player who can do good things but not excellents! 2-0 h2h....i'm with Jurgen.
Melzer @2.20 StanJames.

i'm thinking about Goldstein over Portas and Kohlschreiber over Vliegen...what do you think? i'm not so sure.....
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post #5 of 73 (permalink) Old 05-04-2006, 09:51 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Freestylin' Friday!

Quote:
Originally Posted by DeccyB123
I actually like Melzer today, he's really been hitting his form on this surface. Karlovic just scraped by Phau, who I don't rate at all.
Mate - I really don't know how many times it has to be reiterated, but the outcome of a particular match depends entirely on the particular match-up....and not on whether a player scrapes through a couple of rounds.

Melzer has never lost to Karlovic but when Dr. Ivo serves as well as he has done, it is so difficult to break him...and that will remain a factor in this match. The only difference with Melzer right now is that he has actally rediscovered the meaning of winning - but even then he has hardly set the world alight.

I thought Ivo would break once a set and be done with it today...but Phau has a decent return, even if he lacks general pace. Melzer is a flaky player and is likely to give up a service game at the click of your fingers...not to mention that fact that he has lost to clay supremos such as Fish and Rusedski (the latter being a serve-volleyer).

Last edited by El Burro; 05-04-2006 at 09:59 PM.
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post #6 of 73 (permalink) Old 05-04-2006, 09:58 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Freestylin' Friday!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sambuca
how can you think Ivo is a good bet?
We'll see about it tomorrow then! I'll gladly come back and say I was wrong after the match if that is the case - besides it is only a thought as to how the match will go.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sambuca
i'm on Melzer at this odds! very incredible for me! Real claycounter against a player who can do good things but not excellents! 2-0 h2h....i'm with Jurgen.
Melzer @2.20 StanJames.
Isn't Wawrinka a real claycourt player? He was lucky to get by Ivo

If Jurgen can lose to Fish and Rusedski on clay, for instance, Ivo has a good shot if you ask me.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Sambuca
i'm thinking about Goldstein over Portas and Kohlschreiber over Vliegen...what do you think? i'm not so sure.....
I'll be shocked if Gimelstob wins that...although Portas's dropshots will let Gimelstob attack the net if he can run them down. They have played doubles together this week so it might be a bit dodgy as Freeze indicates.

I'd favour Vliegen but that match is close to 50/50 in my opinion and I have no intention of betting it

Last edited by El Burro; 05-04-2006 at 10:00 PM.
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post #7 of 73 (permalink) Old 05-04-2006, 10:04 PM
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Re: Freestylin' Friday!

ok..thanks for Portas-Gimelstob.
About Ivo-Jurgen i'm with my opinion that on clay Ivo favourite by books is dangerous for us.
Vliegen 50/50...it's logic to take best odd!
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post #8 of 73 (permalink) Old 05-04-2006, 10:04 PM
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Re: Freestylin' Friday!

Melzer does look good value against Ivo but Ivo matches are always a bit of lottery....usually decided by the odd point here or there.

Portas over Gimelstob is one I will likely take. Gimelstob beat an awful Dlouhy in the first round and tank job Massu in the 2nd....this doesn't cloud the fact that he stinks on clay so I'm backing Portas to beat him although I'm a bit worried whether Portas's 32 year old legs can get past another round.
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post #9 of 73 (permalink) Old 05-04-2006, 10:08 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Freestylin' Friday!

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Originally Posted by Jaap
although I'm a bit worried whether Portas's 32 year old legs can get past another round.
Well Gimelstob is 29 so he is not young either

Also consider that Gimelstob is not used to playing on clay which is the most demanding surface of them all...therefore you'd expect him to struggle rather than Portas who spends his life on it. I doubt that fatigue would be much of an issue in a 3-set match anyway...particularly as this is the sort of match-up that will probably be quite comfortable one way or the other.
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post #10 of 73 (permalink) Old 05-04-2006, 10:10 PM
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Re: Freestylin' Friday!

Definitely Portas. I think Gimelstob has played players who have just self-destructed.

Parlay with Davy, Portas and Moya at 2.7 or so - easy money. Will probably add Nalbandian when I get the odds.

Moya plays GGL who scraped past Berlocq and Davydenko has just had a morale boosting victory over his compatriot Safin.

Moya and Davy also seem to play well at Estoril. I think Davy will get to the final.

Favourites Friday at Estoril!
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post #11 of 73 (permalink) Old 05-04-2006, 10:18 PM
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Re: Freestylin' Friday!

Quote:
Originally Posted by elroyf
Definitely Portas. I think Gimelstob has played players who have just self-destructed.

Parlay with Davy, Portas and Moya at 2.7 or so - easy money. Will probably add Nalbandian when I get the odds.

Moya plays GGL who scraped past Berlocq and Davydenko has just had a morale boosting victory over his compatriot Safin.

Moya and Davy also seem to play well at Estoril. I think Davy will get to the final.

Favourites Friday at Estoril!
GGL made the semis here last year as well, losing to Gaston in 3.

Davy should make the finals though.

Also, Big Ivo has beaten Davy and Haas during his serving blitz, two top ranked players and very capable ones on clay. Of course, his success is almost entirely reliant on his serve, but if he's on, Melzer isn't touching it and will get frustrated. All Ivo needs is one service game letdown and it is over. That puts an incredible amount of pressure on his opposition.
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post #12 of 73 (permalink) Old 05-04-2006, 10:24 PM
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Re: Freestylin' Friday!

ok...not Melzer for me! i think aren't there good value today.

About Na Li-Dulko ...i think chinese girl is real favourite..but not for bookies!!
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post #13 of 73 (permalink) Old 05-04-2006, 10:25 PM
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Re: Freestylin' Friday!

and for Schiavone there is a real possibilty to beat Kim for first time !
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post #14 of 73 (permalink) Old 05-04-2006, 11:02 PM
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Re: Freestylin' Friday!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sambuca
ok...not Melzer for me! i think aren't there good value today.

About Na Li-Dulko ...i think chinese girl is real favourite..but not for bookies!!
Both Jie Zheng and Na Li have impressed so far as Estoril. Dulko has more experience on clay, but Li is not slouch, she made the finals here last year.
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post #15 of 73 (permalink) Old 05-05-2006, 12:29 AM
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Re: Freestylin' Friday!

I fancy Vliegen over Kohlschreiber, Phillip barely beat Hernych and win againts Ancic is nice, but it was his first match coming after injury. Last year he hasn`t done much on clay, while Kristof is playing quiet well last couple of weeks.

I`ll probably risk with GGL over Moya if the odds are good.

Karlovic`s matches are always 50-50 in my opinion, so i`ll take whoever has better odds.

Portas, Davydenko and Nieminen are most sure bets for today.

I like: Mario Ancic, David Nalbandian, Nicolas Kiefer, James Blake, Marcos Baghdatis, Jose Acasuso, Novak Đokovic, Marin Cilic
I dislike: Ivan Ljubicic, Rafael Nadal, Nikolay Davydenko, Rainer Schuttler, Ivo Karlovic, Andy Murray, Gaston Gaudio
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