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post #1 of 84 (permalink) Old 03-23-2006, 12:11 AM Thread Starter
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Time to shine Thursday

Tim and Greg!!! Oh man this is going to be a painful day....

Anyway, on to the betting. R1 action in the top half of the draw.

I'm not going to second-guess Safin's fitness so I won't tip him or bet him, but if he turns up then he will win because Henman is a good match-up for him.

Can anyone give me any good reason why Pavel is 1.83...I expected about 1.57? I know Pavel's results haven't been great but look at who he has lost to...for the most part they are decent opposition. Any thoughts? Thanks
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post #2 of 84 (permalink) Old 03-23-2006, 03:25 AM
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Re: Time to shine Thursday

My biggest bet this month comes against Donald "no-hoper" Young, God Bless people backing him who get me -150 on Berlocq.
Sure Berlocqs a clay guy, but at least he's proven he can play top competition, even if it is on clay - he did play Phau 4 tough sets at the AO.
Among other luminaries Young has lost to on HC this year
Yahny Romero #285
Ivan Miranda #400
Marcus Fugate #840
Kryvonos #918
Nathan Thompson #983, less than a month ago
All in FUTURES events, & keep in mind these guys rankings are padded by beating Young, lol
I'll just keep on pounding against this freeloader until he can win an atp set or can do well in a challenger

Bet 10 units to win 6.5 on Berlocq
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post #3 of 84 (permalink) Old 03-23-2006, 05:34 AM
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Re: Time to shine Thursday

Interesting line for Young who hasn't won a match in close to two years.

Florian Mayer (1.763) vs Luis Horna
Horna is a claycourt specialist, he isn't horrible on hard, but he's not good. He got killed by Bracciali 6-3 6-3 at Indian Wells, and Mayer is a better player. Mayer is only 5-5 in his last 10 on hard (same as Horna), but his losses have come to the likes of Federer, Malisse (3 sets), Hewitt (3 sets), Nieminen, and Karlovic (3 sets). He is a solid player on hard who beats players that he should, and battles players that he doesn't. I see no reason why he shouldn't dispatch Horna.
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post #4 of 84 (permalink) Old 03-23-2006, 06:33 AM
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Re: Time to shine Thursday

Anyone for some Bracciali @ 1.h57?
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post #5 of 84 (permalink) Old 03-23-2006, 06:41 AM
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Re: Time to shine Thursday

Play:

PHM to beat Djokovic @1.72

Giving edge to PHM. Djok is very capable player on HC but also loses to lots of lesser players too. PHM has shown a bit of consistency this year in his form and ability to beat players he should.

No guts, no glory!
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post #6 of 84 (permalink) Old 03-23-2006, 06:44 AM
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Re: Time to shine Thursday

Play 2:

(Wager ammount pending on PHM match outcome)

Pavel to beat Martin @1.8

Pavel owns Martin h2h and is really a decent performer on HC. Martin really belongs on clay but I'm a bit scared that he took Gasquet to 5 at the USO, and Martin also has had quite a few nice wins on HC. He did, however, get owned by Goldie last week at IW which says enough.

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post #7 of 84 (permalink) Old 03-23-2006, 06:49 AM
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Re: Time to shine Thursday

Quote:
Originally Posted by TwistServe
Play 2:

(Wager ammount pending on PHM match outcome)

Pavel to beat Martin @1.8

Pavel owns Martin h2h and is really a decent performer on HC. Martin really belongs on clay but I'm a bit scared that he took Gasquet to 5 at the USO, and Martin also has had quite a few nice wins on HC. He did, however, get owned by Goldie last week at IW which says enough.
c'mon twist, you know you want to join me on berlocq
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post #8 of 84 (permalink) Old 03-23-2006, 07:54 AM
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Re: Time to shine Thursday

Fancy Seppi to beat Spadea today @ evens. Seppi is pretty capable on the hard courts and has had some decent results this season. He has been losing a few tight three setters in recent weeks against decent players but I'm backing him to pull through today against Spadea who although has done alright on the American hard courts, hasn't really beat a high calibre player this year.

I'll see the other odds when they come through and decide.
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post #9 of 84 (permalink) Old 03-23-2006, 07:56 AM
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Re: Time to shine Thursday

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaap
Fancy Seppi to beat Spadea today @ evens. Seppi is pretty capable on the hard courts and has had some decent results this season. He has been losing a few tight three setters in recent weeks against decent players but I'm backing him to pull through today against Spadea who although has done alright on the American hard courts, hasn't really beat a high calibre player this year.

I'll see the other odds when they come through and decide.
I think Ice will come through at home, but hope you win, Vinny is just a weird dude
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post #10 of 84 (permalink) Old 03-23-2006, 08:23 AM
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Re: Time to shine Thursday

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Judge

Can anyone give me any good reason why Pavel is 1.83...I expected about 1.57? I know Pavel's results haven't been great but look at who he has lost to...for the most part they are decent opposition. Any thoughts? Thanks
Hmm, maybe it's because Martin had a decent run at Sunrise, Florida week ago in similar conditions, on similar courts. He defeated some names there - Seppi, bagelling Vanek etc. Besides he isn't a novice on faster courts than clay (vide Stockholm 2005 f.e.). I'm not touching it though. I'm not convinced enough about Martin's abilities on hardcourts, while Pavel is a mistery.

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post #11 of 84 (permalink) Old 03-23-2006, 08:24 AM
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Re: Time to shine Thursday

Besides 3-0 for Pavel is a fluke, look when and where did they play

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post #12 of 84 (permalink) Old 03-23-2006, 08:53 AM
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Re: Time to shine Thursday

No one fancy Muller to beat Mirnyi??

Mirnyi is on an awful run!!
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post #13 of 84 (permalink) Old 03-23-2006, 09:11 AM
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Re: Time to shine Thursday

Right, I've gone for:

Muller x Pavel

Djokovic x Mayer x Vliegen

Also a smallish play on Seppi.
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post #14 of 84 (permalink) Old 03-23-2006, 09:39 AM
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Re: Time to shine Thursday

Sangunetti looks a good bet to beat Scud, i fancy it in straight sets anyone agree??
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post #15 of 84 (permalink) Old 03-23-2006, 09:52 AM
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Re: Time to shine Thursday

Quote:
Originally Posted by skel1983
Sangunetti looks a good bet to beat Scud, i fancy it in straight sets anyone agree??
Depends on how Scud is playing. In the past he would have blew someone like Saguenetti off the court but with the injuries, its hard to tell which player will turn up nowdays.

Sanguenetti has struggled to handle big servers this season losing to Mirnyi, Karlovic and Ancic . Scud also beat him last season on grass.

If I was going to back anyone it would be Scud but I wouldn't touch this game personally.
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