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post #1 of 418 (permalink) Old 09-18-2015, 12:25 PM Thread Starter
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Cool The Value Zone

Thought this particular forum needed a breath of fresh-air, so i'll be logging all my tennis-bets throughout the rest of the year and hopefully beyond with ideally some valuable logic and reasoning too.

I've named it the Value Zone purely because i'm after good value picks and my username explains the other bit. I'm certain there will be occasions where I end up picking terrible value picks but that's life so please don't take the thread-title too seriously.

I'm only going to be focusing on ATP bets, WTA for me is a little bit of a circus. But I would encourage anybody to feel free to contribute to this thread with their own picks and analysis and hopefully we can exact some bookie-bashing together.

Below are some handy links just for referential purposes.

Official Site of Men's Professional Tennis | ATP World Tour | Tennis
Home | WTA Tennis English
http://www.daviscup.com
http://www.itftennis.com/home.aspx
Live Tennis Scores - US Open 2015, Tennis Livescore, Results, ATP & WTA Rankings

I let my racket do the talking. That's what I am all about, really. I just go out and win tennis matches.

Pete Sampras
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post #2 of 418 (permalink) Old 09-19-2015, 06:42 AM
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Re: The Value Zone

Welcome and I look forward to seeing your selections
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post #3 of 418 (permalink) Old 09-19-2015, 12:03 PM Thread Starter
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Re: The Value Zone

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler View Post
Welcome and I look forward to seeing your selections
Thanks

Waiting for the Metz/St Petes draws to come out and will have a look over things this weekend for Monday.

All tips and insight from others in the meantime is welcomed.

I let my racket do the talking. That's what I am all about, really. I just go out and win tennis matches.

Pete Sampras
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post #4 of 418 (permalink) Old 09-20-2015, 03:43 PM Thread Starter
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Re: The Value Zone

Just one R1 match in Russia tomorrow; Gimeno-Traver vs newly-married Haider-Maurer, which really doesn't appeal too much, as both players' motivations and indoor-records would leave something to be desired.

Some R1 leans for me would include Rublev against Bolelli, Paire against Janowicz and perhaps one of the players involved in matches with qualifiers (Sousa, Becker, Gabashvili and Donskoy).

Waiting now for the Monday Metz schedule to come out.

I let my racket do the talking. That's what I am all about, really. I just go out and win tennis matches.

Pete Sampras
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post #5 of 418 (permalink) Old 09-21-2015, 09:40 AM Thread Starter
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Re: The Value Zone

OK let's start off with a couple of matches from Metz:

1 Couacaud to beat Roger-Vasselin @ 3.50 (3 units to win 7.5 units)

Feels like ERV has entered the semi-retirement home lately, at least in terms of singles. 4-10 coming into this week and none of those wins against particularly taxing opposition. Couacaud doesn't have much more to shout about but tends to go fairly well at home both on the main-tour and CHs. Closer match than the odds suggest.

2 Bedene to beat Muller @ 3.40 (5 units to win 12 units)

The newly re-patriotised Brit has had a much improved 2015 on the hardcourts, winning a CH and a recent win over Simon. Muller coming into this perhaps a little low on confidence, just wins over lower-CH level Bester and clown-mode Monfils in Montreal and a fairly lacklustre defeat at the US Open in R1. Bedene's serve is good enough to keep him well in this match-up and should be the better player off the ground. Hard to tell how quick the surface is this year but going by general ATP court-homogenisation standards lately, it won't be perfectly to Muller's liking.

Good luck.
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post #6 of 418 (permalink) Old 09-21-2015, 07:50 PM Thread Starter
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Re: The Value Zone

1 Couacaud to beat Roger-Vasselin @ 3.50 LOSS
2 Bedene to beat Muller @ 3.40 LOSS

Record: 0-2 (-8 units)

Safe to say day-one didn't go to plan, not quite sure how ERV beats anyone for the loss of 2 games. Tomorrow's a new day.

I let my racket do the talking. That's what I am all about, really. I just go out and win tennis matches.

Pete Sampras
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post #7 of 418 (permalink) Old 09-22-2015, 10:00 AM Thread Starter
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Re: The Value Zone

3 Millot to beat Mannarino @ 4.50 (3 units to win 10.5 units)

Have to fade Mannarino at these odds against a player who's already had a couple of qualies wins to acclimatise to the conditions. I think Mannarino being a little overrated here due to perhaps that match against Murray, but in reality he's struggled for wins since making the final in Bogota a couple of months back (just one over Kravchuk in NYC), and has suffered some poor defeats this year to other CH-type players like Soeda, Ilhan and Ram.

4 M Zverev to beat Carreno-Busta @ 1.80 (6 units to win 4.8 units)

Going with another qualifier who is managing to re-build his career after a long run of injury-problems. Zverev is in fact a former finalist in Metz and holds a pretty impressive 10-5 record in the tournament (inc quals). PCB had a fairly decent run in the States winning 4 matches but has since decided to play some clay CHs and I doubt he really wants to be here.

Good luck.

I let my racket do the talking. That's what I am all about, really. I just go out and win tennis matches.

Pete Sampras
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post #8 of 418 (permalink) Old 09-22-2015, 04:36 PM Thread Starter
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Re: The Value Zone

3 Millot to beat Mannarino @ 4.50 LOSS
4 M Zverev to beat Carreno-Busta @ 1.80 WIN

Record: 1-3 (-6.2 units)

Could have been a very different story if Millot had broken near the end of the 2nd there, ah well.

I let my racket do the talking. That's what I am all about, really. I just go out and win tennis matches.

Pete Sampras
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post #9 of 418 (permalink) Old 09-23-2015, 09:42 AM Thread Starter
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Re: The Value Zone

Focus for me today very much on St Petersburg in the land of the free ...

5 Shyla to win a set against Gabashvili @ 3.2 (5 units to win 11 units)

Going with another qualifier here who is, rightly enough, a long underdog in this particular match-up. Shyla another who came through qualifiers, winning three matches to get through so again he'll be well adapted to conditions. But these two have played twice this year already, Gaba winning the 1st easily though Shyla took him to 3 in their last match on hard a few weeks ago. Gaba is a fairly average 9-12 career at home ATP tournaments and has a similar ratio on the season so far (13-17). He's always liable to the odd brain-fade at the best of times anyway so hopefully another today.

6 Rublev to beat Bolelli @ 2.24 @ (3 units to win 3.72 units)

Rublev the up-and-coming 17 year-old Russian possesses quite a forehand, though still making his way on this level of the tour for now. He has managed to play (and win) quite a few matches this year though and that level of maturity is growing all the time, indeed he played a solid match against eventual quarter-finalist Anderson in the US Open. On top of this, Bolelli is coming off a three-match losing streak and doesn't generally boast great indoor-credentials, especially if Rublev can manage to rush him with that huge forehand. Factor in the home-crowd factor, I consider Rublev a good bet but the rawness of him makes it a small bet for now.

Tempted by going against Thiem later on but will see how these do first. Good luck.

I let my racket do the talking. That's what I am all about, really. I just go out and win tennis matches.

Pete Sampras
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post #10 of 418 (permalink) Old 09-23-2015, 03:33 PM Thread Starter
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Re: The Value Zone

5 Shyla to win a set against Gabashvili @ 3.2 LOSS
6 Rublev to beat Bolelli @ 2.24 LOSS

Record: 1-5 (-14.2 units)

Let's forget this disastrous day and try to find a positive note to end this week on. Lot of value play tomorrow, but of course after this sort of day the natural instinct is to become reluctant to it. However it's wrong to believe the outcomes of today's matches have any effect on those of tomorrow, underdogs are still just as probable to come through, even if it's been pretty much a favourites paradise so far. So I will keep battling on, hopefully make back what I lost by the end of the week. Two more for this afternoon:

7 Haider-Maurer to win a set against Thiem @ 2.0 (5 units to win 5 units)
8 Haider-Maurer to beat Thiem @ 3.75 (2 units to win 5.5 units)

Another pretty new match-up on tour this summer, Thiem won both matches they played in the midst of his impressive clay-streak in Europe, but not without problems. Both matches, AHM won the first set before fading, but i'd be surprised if we saw that this time. He had a couple of weeks off after the US but hopefully more importantly, a win in R1 here whereas Thiem is matchless in what is nearly 3 weeks now. Neither are most comfortable indoors but Thiem's big loopy backswings ought to give him some trouble against the powerful Haider-Maurer both on return and in the rallies.

Good luck.

I let my racket do the talking. That's what I am all about, really. I just go out and win tennis matches.

Pete Sampras
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post #11 of 418 (permalink) Old 09-24-2015, 07:13 AM Thread Starter
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Re: The Value Zone

7 Haider-Maurer to win a set against Thiem @ 2.0 LOSS
8 Haider-Maurer to beat Thiem @ 3.75 LOSS

Record: 1-7 (-21.2 units)

Too good from Thiem yesterday, conditions really suited him out there. AHM fairly close to a set but would have been a complete steal.

I let my racket do the talking. That's what I am all about, really. I just go out and win tennis matches.

Pete Sampras
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post #12 of 418 (permalink) Old 09-24-2015, 07:37 AM Thread Starter
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Re: The Value Zone

9 Robredo to beat Baghdatis @ 1.70 (10 units to win 7 units)

Baghdatis is still rather inconsistent these days, and does tend to check in and out of matches mentally. This is obviously something of a problem playing against a consistent ball-maker like Robredo who is a whole other test to someone like Gulbis whom Baghdatis eventually stumbled past in R1. The match-up is a pretty good one on this surface for Robredo; it's medium-paced at best, the balls are kicking off the court which will help his defense and give him enough time to run around onto his favoured forehand. I just feel with Tommy, you know what you're going to get and he should at least give me a run for my money which is more than most of my plays this week.

10 Mahut to beat Mannarino @ 1.96 (5 units to win 4.8 units)

Both Frenchmen here who don't exactly fill one with confidence so it's not going to be stress-free, but I feel the odds slightly under-estimating Nico here who has won all 6 sets they've played and is coming into this with sky-high confidence after his doubles-success in NYC.

Good luck

I let my racket do the talking. That's what I am all about, really. I just go out and win tennis matches.

Pete Sampras
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post #13 of 418 (permalink) Old 09-24-2015, 06:24 PM Thread Starter
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Re: The Value Zone

9 Robredo to beat Baghdatis @ 1.70 WIN
10 Mahut to beat Mannarino @ 1.96 WIN

Record: 3-7 (-9.4 units)

Bit more like it, although slightly regretting not opposing BO3-wimp Wawrinka against the Rastaman tonight.

I let my racket do the talking. That's what I am all about, really. I just go out and win tennis matches.

Pete Sampras
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post #14 of 418 (permalink) Old 09-25-2015, 08:33 AM Thread Starter
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Re: The Value Zone

11 Thiem to win St Petersburg @ 4.50 (5 units to win 17.5 units)

Player in good form all summer, has found a habit of winning matches at this level which is hard to break. His route to the final is at worst Istomin/Bolelli and then possibly Raonic, who hasn't looked good for a while.

Good luck.

I let my racket do the talking. That's what I am all about, really. I just go out and win tennis matches.

Pete Sampras
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post #15 of 418 (permalink) Old 09-25-2015, 09:36 AM Thread Starter
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Re: The Value Zone

12 Simon to beat Muller @ 1.80 (10 units to win 8 units)

Muller is a great matchup for Simon who should be able to cope with his big serves and likes facing players who rush to the net. Simon won their previous match in Tokyo last year and factor in the home-crowd on his side, he should be able to take the big Luxemburger down today.

Easy $$$

I let my racket do the talking. That's what I am all about, really. I just go out and win tennis matches.

Pete Sampras
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