Focus for me today very much on St Petersburg in the land of the free ...
5 Shyla to win a set against Gabashvili @ 3.2 (5 units to win 11 units)
Going with another qualifier here who is, rightly enough, a long underdog in this particular match-up. Shyla another who came through qualifiers, winning three matches to get through so again he'll be well adapted to conditions. But these two have played twice this year already, Gaba winning the 1st easily though Shyla took him to 3 in their last match on hard a few weeks ago. Gaba is a fairly average 9-12 career at home ATP tournaments and has a similar ratio on the season so far (13-17). He's always liable to the odd brain-fade at the best of times anyway so hopefully another today.
6 Rublev to beat Bolelli @ 2.24 @ (3 units to win 3.72 units)
Rublev the up-and-coming 17 year-old Russian possesses quite a forehand, though still making his way on this level of the tour for now. He has managed to play (and win) quite a few matches this year though and that level of maturity is growing all the time, indeed he played a solid match against eventual quarter-finalist Anderson in the US Open. On top of this, Bolelli is coming off a three-match losing streak and doesn't generally boast great indoor-credentials, especially if Rublev can manage to rush him with that huge forehand. Factor in the home-crowd factor, I consider Rublev a good bet but the rawness of him makes it a small bet for now.
Tempted by going against Thiem later on but will see how these do first. Good luck.