Originally Posted by bad gambler
Not sure if I'm going to have time tomorrow so will share my thoughts now.
Recap on Friday, swept the board pending the small play on Lopez. Ferrer cashed easily, magician nearly made a meal of it and Vesnina outlasted her opponent. Nailed the sucker bet as well, fading Nieminen and got on big on bandy, rule number 1 in a GS is never back against class. Will be treating my bookie as an ATM tomorrow and buy my wife something nice.......
Anyway here we go for Saturday, all odds from pinny....
Coria to beat Grosjean - $2.55
An interesting matchup of two players with similar styles, both retreivers of the ball and both use their incredible foot speed to outlast their opponents, two of the best in the business. Coria has been flying under the radar both in the leadup and during the Open so far, he was brilliant at Kooyong and started off this GS rather shakily especially with his suspect serve tossing in a ridiculous 17 DF's against Hanescu and another 8 against Luzzi. However one thing I have been impressed with has been is first serve % which has been hovering around the mid 70% mark, a dramatic improvement to what he was serving at the back end of last year where he was serving a paultry 50% odd and accordingly struggled. The surface this year is pretty placid as well, slower than your usual rebound ace surface which suits his game. My only concern with this bet is Seba's ruthless efficicency in converting bp chances, that has always been a hallmark of his in his career. Given the long rallies that is going to occur during the match, coupled with the heat I see this one going the distance and if it does I'm liking my chances on one of the fittest players on tour.
Andreev to beat Hrbaty - $1.96
Hrbaty has been in dire form thus far this year, and his B2b 5 setters against some lowly opponents is not really great form coming into a match against a red hot andreev. I know hrbaty is an ironman, but consecutive 5 setters will test the limits of anyone. Andreev has the weapons to hurt the Dominator especially in the form of his FH and that should be enough for him to progress.
Kiefer to beat Ferrero - $2.04
Ferrero falls into the category of an "also ran" IMO, he has never been the same since his injuries sustained early 2004 and has not made much of impression in GS's as a result. He struggled to put away Tipsy last round, and in a way scraped through that due to his opponent's lack of experience if anything else. Kiefer's lead up form has been solid, bit lucky saving mp's against srichaphan in the 3rd set of that match before completely dominating the final 2 sets. His ankle I read seems to be ok, and provided his ankle does hold up, should drill the mosquito in 4 sets.
BG with Coria having an average 1st serve speed of 138 kph vs Hanescu, and 144 against Luzzi I'd be worried that a quality player like Grosjean will have a field day breaking his serve?