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post #1 of 32 (permalink) Old 11-30-2005, 07:46 PM Thread Starter
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Talking Davis Cup final: Big Bald Baddy Bags Big Booty

Tennis: Davis cup final.

Croatia v Slovak Republic

Croatia to win @ 1.40 (20 units)

Croatia were very strong favourites to win the tie before this week. They have Ljubicic and Ancic in their squad that are more than likely to play every live match.

Ljubicic has an incredible 9/0 record going into this tie, made more incredible after his spectacular giant - killing run over the USA in Spring. His best surface is indoors, as witnessed by his outstanding late - season surge to the Masters Cup. Indeed, he is the #2 player indoors behind Federer. I do not expect him to lose any singles match this weekend - he owns Hrbaty head-to-head and has a superior game to the Slovak #2 singles player.

Ancic is no pigeon. He is at home on the fast indoor surfaces and should be able to account for Hrbaty at the very least - Dom is very vulnerable against strong serve - volleyers and has an appalling record against them. Ancic would have been more vulnerable against Beck - a man who has a habit of accounting for serve - volleyers - but it is likely he won't be playing. I would expect Ancic to account for the replacement Slovak player.

As a doubles team, Ljubo and Ancic are unbeaten in DC this year but they have been extended in every match and could lose the Saturday rubber.

On to the Slovaks.

Hrbaty has put on quite a show this year, winning vital points for his nation in the singles rubbers. He plays his best tennis in DC and in front of his home crowd and so he will be even tougher to play than normal. IMO he is more likely to upset Ljubicic than Ancic...if Dom can keep Ljubo pinned to the baseline then he will have a chance to draw out errors from the Croat...but seeing Ljubo's impeccable record against him doesn't make for pleasant reading! He is unlikely to upset Ancic - Dom's game doesn't match up well to serve - volleyers.

There have been rumours this week that Beck is injured, has tested positive for drugs - misuse and hasn't turned up to practises...leaving the option open for Kucera to play singles instead. Either way, Beck at his best is very difficult to play on a fast court, but this year has been a nightmare for him and the occasion would probably get to him. Kucera has been largely inactive all year and his ranking has dropped to 297. He shouldn't be fit enough, physically or match - tough, to frighten either Croat singles player.

As to the doubles, Beck and Mertinak played a perfect 3 rubbers this year, winning them all comfortably. If they were to somehow play again this weekend, then I would say they have a very good chance to win the Saturday doubles tie. However, it is likely that Beck won't be playing, and so it will be down to a singles player to take his place...Dom or Kucera. Dom is more likely to play as the Slovaks won't want to chuck the rubber away. He is good in doubles with his ability to carve out angles but his serve is not strong and 1 break could end their chances in each set. If Kucera were to play, his lack of match practise wouldn't be so obvious and, with some good volleying, the Slovak pair stands a good chance in keeping the match tight. If that happens...who knows what could happen.

My theory of how the weekend could pan out (with Beck playing) - worst scenario (no particular singles order):

Ljubicic (1) def Beck (2)
Ancic (2) def Hrbaty (1)
Ljubicic / Ancic lose to Beck / Mertinak
Ljubicic (1) def Hrbaty (1)

Croatia win 3/1.
Croatia win 3/0 - more likely.

The worst - case scenario I can see, is Beck winning all 3 rubbers...but the chances of that right now are about 2%

I just cannot see a Slovak win... 1.40 is a fairly good deal considering.
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post #2 of 32 (permalink) Old 11-30-2005, 08:12 PM
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Re: Davis Cup final: Big Bald Baddy Bags Big Booty

Is the Beckster definitely out?

If so they may as well throw Mecir in as he will have a better chance than Kucera

I can Still get Croatia at $1.50, looks too easy
post #3 of 32 (permalink) Old 11-30-2005, 08:28 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Davis Cup final: Big Bald Baddy Bags Big Booty

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
Is the Beckster definitely out?

If so they may as well throw Mecir in as he will have a better chance than Kucera

I can Still get Croatia at $1.50, looks too easy
Lol mate. He is not definitely out...but there are some very good signs that he isn't playing.

I'd expect Croatia to win regardless, but this only strengthens their bid for glory.

I could get 1.53 at the start of the week but the line went down overnight

I expect the line to drop some more, especially if Beck doesn't play. Get on it now!!!
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post #4 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-01-2005, 05:53 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Davis Cup final: Big Bald Baddy Bags Big Booty

Ancic over Hrbaty @ 2.10

Analysis: http://www.menstennisforums.com/sho...845#post2758845

Good luck everyone!

Last edited by El Burro; 12-01-2005 at 05:57 PM.
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post #5 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-01-2005, 08:05 PM
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Re: Davis Cup final: Big Bald Baddy Bags Big Booty

Croatia to win @1.40



Last edited by JMG; 12-01-2005 at 08:11 PM.
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post #6 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-02-2005, 04:40 AM
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Re: Davis Cup final: Big Bald Baddy Bags Big Booty

Hrbaty to beat Ancic - $1.60


good luck
post #7 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-02-2005, 06:18 AM
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Re: Davis Cup final: Big Bald Baddy Bags Big Booty

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
Hrbaty to beat Ancic - $1.60


good luck
With you on that.

Hrbaty over Ancic at $1.66 (WH) - can't see that price lasting too long
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post #8 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-02-2005, 11:49 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Davis Cup final: Big Bald Baddy Bags Big Booty

I just don't get why everyone is on Hrbaty. Yes, Ancic has had a poor DC singles year but his game is not the best match for Dom.

If Ancic loses, I'd be grateful if someone tells me just how Dom broke him down, because I sure don't see it
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post #9 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-02-2005, 01:30 PM
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Re: Davis Cup final: Big Bald Baddy Bags Big Booty

Quote:
Originally Posted by jez
I just don't get why everyone is on Hrbaty. Yes, Ancic has had a poor DC singles year but his game is not the best match for Dom.

If Ancic loses, I'd be grateful if someone tells me just how Dom broke him down, because I sure don't see it
Forget matchups, this is Davis Cup

1. Ancic is a choker, period
2. This is Davis Cup
3. Hrbaty is a Davis Cup BEAST
3. Choker + Davis Cup = fade material

I would have faded Ancic regardless, but he is up against a very capable DC player in Hrbaty, to me it's a fairly straight forward bet

Lets see if Ancic has it in him to prove me wrong.
post #10 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-02-2005, 01:34 PM
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Re: Davis Cup final: Big Bald Baddy Bags Big Booty

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
Lets see if Ancic has it in him to prove me wrong.
He WILL prove you wrong!!!!
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post #11 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-02-2005, 01:34 PM
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Re: Davis Cup final: Big Bald Baddy Bags Big Booty

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Originally Posted by MariaV
He WILL prove you wrong!!!! :feiry:

NO
post #12 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-02-2005, 01:36 PM
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Re: Davis Cup final: Big Bald Baddy Bags Big Booty

BG!!!!!!!! I won't impersonate croats here more, I'll go home cheering for them.
So I won't disturb your betting any more, carry on gents.
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post #13 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-02-2005, 01:36 PM
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Re: Davis Cup final: Big Bald Baddy Bags Big Booty

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
Forget matchups, this is Davis Cup

1. Ancic is a choker, period
2. This is Davis Cup
3. Hrbaty is a Davis Cup BEAST
3. Choker + Davis Cup = fade material

I would have faded Ancic regardless, but he is up against a very capable DC player in Hrbaty, to me it's a fairly straight forward bet

Lets see if Ancic has it in him to prove me wrong.

AJMO MARIO!!!!!!!!

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post #14 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-02-2005, 01:38 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Davis Cup final: Big Bald Baddy Bags Big Booty

Quote:
Originally Posted by bad gambler
Lets see if Ancic has it in him to prove me wrong.
Well, the odds are heavily against me, what with Jim backing Dom as well

But, I faded both you guys last week in NBA, your own "turf" - so now it is time for me to try to take you out on my turf

Good luck to everyone playing this match
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post #15 of 32 (permalink) Old 12-02-2005, 02:18 PM
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Re: Davis Cup final: Big Bald Baddy Bags Big Booty

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Originally Posted by happy928
AJMO MARIO!!!!!!!!
eh, i changed my mind......Gotta support Dominator today! C'MON Funky Shirt man!

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