Originally Posted by Breaker
Juan-Carlos Ferrero over Marat Safin - $1.62
Ferrero has won both matches played between the two this year, which were both during masters events on clay, so the will of Safin to win these matches isn't in question as it is my belief Safin actually applies himself during these tournaments.
Ferrero holds a 5-4 overall H2H lead and a 4-2 Head-to-head lead on clay and has shown great claycourt form this season with victories over Gaudio, Alberto Martin, Davydenko, Volandri - who are all capable claycourters.
JCF also made the final at Barcelona just over a month ago, beaten by Nadal in three
JCF holds a respectable 12-5 record on clay this season
In 5 of his last 6 tournaments Ferrero has lost to a player who has gone on to make the semi finals or better
JCF hasn't dropped a set on his way to the 3rd round and this seasons results show that when Ferrero makes the 3rd round on clay he has only lost once from four occasions
In contrast, Safin, who holds a 4-4 record on clay this season, has only really beaten one respectable claycourter, Alberto Martin, who had just come from another ATP event only a cpl of days prior to his first round match against Safin.
Other than his Australian Open victory Safin has not made it passed the third round in any other tournament this season
I'd be very surprised if Safin got up and won this match after a problematic knee was reported after his 2nd round match (due to recurring tendonitis), lets hope he doesn't retire hurt if he begins to lose. My tip would be to put the bet on with a bookie who doesn't void the bet if a player retires after the first set.
Ferrero over Safin - $1.62 (William Hill)
Agree with you here ....under normal circumstances Fererro should beat Safin on clay...what moer with Safin being injured!.......by the way just like to remiind you in case you may not know William Hill voids all bets should a player retires in the middle of the match