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2012 Outrights

2K views 27 replies 10 participants last post by  nastoff 
#1 ·
2012 Futures

Roger Federer 2.02 to win Rotterdam

Sam Querrey 32 to win San Jose

Andy Roddick 4.7 to win San Jose

Nicolas Almagro 3.7 to win Sao Paulo

David Nalbandian 8.8 to win Sao Paulo
 
#4 ·
Julien Benneteau to raise his first career ATP 250 trophy @ 13.5

He's in the semis after having destroyed Falla, which doesn't say much but we all know that Jules is a big time confidence guy and he's gotta be feeling loaded with that after making it this far.

Surpringly Benneteau is only down 3-4 against Ferrer, who will probably be his SF opponent. On hardcourts he owns a 2-1 edge over the Spanish bulldog.

In the final its either Kei or Pico. He's never played Monaco and he's 1-1 v. Kei including a very close loss at the AO to the Jap which included two tiebreakers.

Worth a punt IMO>
 
#6 ·
#9 ·
Robson to win Osaka @7.00 (2 Units) .

GL
 
#11 ·
LOSS
 
#13 ·
I can almost guarantee that if you take whatever unit you're risking on Berdych and keep risking that + the profit of the win from the previous round you'll make more than 2.38. In addition, it also will give you the option of greening out at any given moment if for whatever reason something makes you want to green out (injury, running into a player in white hot form, playing long matches on back to back days).

Going to actually do that to see what ends up being more profitable (if he does end up winning the whole thing)

Risking 100 on Berdych to beat Zop at 1.05
 
#16 ·
trying to prove that in a situation like this its more profitable to back a player round by round rather than an outright. Not only as far as profitablility, but also the option to green out whenever you want due to injury, walkover, or the fact that he might be running into an opponent on fire that might be a brick wall.
 
#21 ·
So im right to say that is you put $100 on Berdych at 2.38 you get $238 returned. Yet if you Accumulate bet every match for the tournament you get $300.46 returned.

Shouldn't it be the other way around as you are taking a much larger risk betting the full amount prior to the start without anyway to drop out. The second option is also giving security aswell as a greter return.

I might check this out on some other tournaments aswell. Just to see the results. Interesting idea though.
 
#22 ·
Yes, the point I was trying to make exactly.

The variance in this situation is if Tsonga had gotten upset on the other side of the bracket, then it would have paid out a lot less than 300.

All in all though much, much better to bet something like this round by round. Applies to Grand Slam champions and definitely applies to long underdogs too
 
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