Statistical observation about multiples/parlays - MensTennisForums.com

 
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post #1 of 4 (permalink) Old 03-29-2009, 11:57 AM Thread Starter
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Statistical observation about multiples/parlays

In European betting these bets are called multiples, accumulators or combi-bets and are listed much more rationally and closer to the maths we're used to than the terms and numbers used on American bettings sites for "parlays". However, it is exactly the same thing as a "parlay".

One multiple of bets in European odds of 1.80 x 2.30 x 1.40 pays 5.80 if all three win, just multiply the numbers. Really very simple.

Sometimes you can do "system bets" or "permutations", for example you have five bets in a multiple, you can bet something on the "five-fold" (all five win), but you can also chose to have a little money on each of the possible combinations of three winners -- so ten bets covering all possible combination of three winners. The odds/pay-out of each of them is odds1 x odds2 x odds3.

Some people who know tennis can make money on multiples I think, but there are big disadvantages:

- Bettings sites that offer multiples often have a very high overround (profit margin) on every bet, so the odds are very bad. If you bet on these odds in the long run you would lose money even if you are a good tennis gambler.
- Statistically these overrounds/profit margins are multiplied with the amount of bets in a multiple, so as more bets are in the multiple/parlay the profit margin for the betting site increases greatly and the value of the bet declines rapidly. Just because of statistics and mathematics.

For example, you can calculate that always placing 10-match multiples/parlays is in the long run basically equivalent to betting on odds of 1.25 or worse when the single is 1.50...so very poor value. Because the chances of "hitting" the big pay out are extremely small. And you very likely to lose a lot of money in the long run.

What this means in practice, singles are better than multis, and if you absolutely need to bet on multiples, concentrate your money of the small multiples (two bets, three bets).

If betting site/book severely limits possibilities to do singles or small multiples (two bets per multiple or system/permutation bets not allowed), that's a clear sign that they are the scum of the earth and you will never ever make a profit there.


TT Singles 2012: W: Winston-Salem SF: Honolulu CH, Rotterdam, Memphis, 's-Hertogenbosch, Wimbledon, Beijing, Vienna QF: Barcelona, Nice, Bastad, Petange CH, Bangkok R16: Monte Carlo, Madrid
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Last edited by TankingTheSet; 03-29-2009 at 12:17 PM.
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post #2 of 4 (permalink) Old 03-29-2009, 12:00 PM
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Re: Statistical observation about multiples/parlays

Very good advice
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post #3 of 4 (permalink) Old 03-29-2009, 12:00 PM
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Re: Statistical observation about multiples/parlays

Great post/thread

Its funny cause here in England we only call them accumulators and not parlays


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post #4 of 4 (permalink) Old 03-29-2009, 12:10 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Statistical observation about multiples/parlays

In think this kind of situation is called a 'fallacy' in economics and other sciences.

The fallacy is this:

Because of the high payout big multiples/accumulators/parlays give the superficial impression of good value, but in actual fact they are very bad value.


TT Singles 2012: W: Winston-Salem SF: Honolulu CH, Rotterdam, Memphis, 's-Hertogenbosch, Wimbledon, Beijing, Vienna QF: Barcelona, Nice, Bastad, Petange CH, Bangkok R16: Monte Carlo, Madrid
TT Doubles 2012: W: Caloundra CH (with kingroger), Acapulco (with keqtqiadv) F: Beijing (with KittyTennis) SF: Sydney (with Belludal), Memphis (with Belludal), Guadalajara CH (with kingroger), Wimbledon (with RHB1993) QF: Barcelona (with extremaduratenis), Cincinnati (with stbanchile)
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