F.Lopez @ 1.72 - Lopez the more solid game outdoors imo, and can't see Llodra breaking him. Tiebreaks expected.
I like your other ones, but careful here, Lopez is on a streak of 7 losses in a row on outdoors hard (and his indoors form recently hasn't been much good either). On top of that, Llodra beat him in september (indoors), and has a good record against fellow lefties.
As you say, tiebreaks likely, because Lopez has arguably the worst returns in the top100. That's Lopez's route to a win, because he has a better TB record.