MistaFlava's 2009 ATP Tennis Betting Record: 38-26 (+$5569.00)
This Week: 5-1 (+$8655)
***I only wager on odds 1.35 or better and never do parlays
(If you wager exactly the amounts I wager on every match this season, I promise you make some crazy money)
I completely lost all my composure as a gambler this past and it was a disaster. I lost all my profits for the year and pretty much forgot who I was a gambler. My investors are not happy but those who have been with me for a long time know what I can do and they will continue to follow until I really fall off. Anyways, time to get some of that back. LIVIN LARGE IS GOOD! Learn it. Like I said before, if you follow me all season, you make big money, that's a promise guys. I am very busy with work, very busy with capping other sports and betting on tennis is something I do for fun on the side so don't hate the player bitches, hate the game. I'm sick and tired of all the idiots who run around on tennis forums claiming to be good because they go 10-0 betting on 1.15 favorites and parlaying 1.03 favorites by the dozen to make a couple hundred bucks.
At least I'm honest. Most people around here don't keep a record and that's just ridiculous. But whatever, to each his own.
All my wagering is done at Pinnacle. All the best this season and if you have a problem with me or my style, LICK MY NUTS!
Tuesday, February 10
ATP Rotterdam - Round 32
David Ferrer 1.49 over Jurgen Melzer ($7000 to win $4430)
You could not ask for a better betting match than this one here today because Ferrer and Melzer are playing on different levels of tennis right now and this should not be a tough match to win for the Spaniard. They have met twice in the past and both wins were by Ferrer and both wins were on clay and more than five years ago so I don't really think they are relevant unless you're only looking to the mental side of things in tennis. It was at this time last season that Ferrer achieved his highest ranking ever with the #4 spot in the world at the time. We most recently say Ferrer in ATP Johannesburg last week where he made the Semi-Finals and looked very good most of the week so we know he can play on a harder and fast surface and we know he is here to win matches. Ferrer did lose to Jeremy Chardy in that match but it was close and he played really well throughout most of the match, just did not get the break. Melzer on the other hand is coming off a pathetic first round loss to Korolev in Zagreb and that loss was part of a pathetic string of losses for certain favoured players last week. Let's not talk about it. The thing about Melzer is that he gets bounced from tournaments as soon as adversity hits and this is big time adversity. Melzer has played in only 11 matches on indoor hard courts and he has managed to win only 5 of those 11 matches. I know Ferrer is not much better and it's not easy to trust him on this stuff seeing how over the last 12 months he has played only 6 matches but I trust him to be good for one or two wins here before losing like he did last year in the second round against Zverev. He will only lose against a better indoor hard court player and Melzer is not that player believe me. Ferrer is a perfect 3-0 lifetime in first round matches at ATP Rotterdam
and in case you did not notice yet, Melzer played here once in the past and he was sent packing in the very first round. You just cannot trust this guy ever and although this is not a preferable surface for Ferrer, he is the better tennis player, he has the better return game of the two and his second serve will be good enough to handicap Melzer who looks like a little bitch most of the time we see him play. FERRER IS A GREAT WAGER HERE GUYS...BANK IT!!!!
ATP Costa Do Sauipe - Round 32
Albert Montanes 2.72 over Juan Carlos Ferrero ($500 to win $860)
How the hell can you not like this wager for some kind of cash at least? I mean this is clay courts and although we didn't see many upsets yesterday, we are going to see some shocking stuff im sure in the matches today so why not start right here and right now with the first scheduled match of the day. I mean let's get real here for a second. I know Montanes is not the most reliable player in the world to wager on but he is playing some of his best tennis ever in recent months and he is currently ranked #42 in the world which is only two spots off his personal best which was achieved only last week. Ferrero on the other hand is not even ranked in the TOP 100 and although he is a big name in this sport, how the fuck are you guys fully trusting this guy with your money knowing he is struggling with his career right now and that every match is different and we don't know how much he cares about some matches. I know Ferrero is a perfect 4-0 lifetime versus Montanes but he was ranked TOP 40 for three of those four meetings and the other meeting he was ranked #58 and he struggled to beat Montanes in ATP Barcelona needing three sets to get the job done. I'm sure Montanes is sick of losing to this guy anyways. Alright so here is the deal. Yes Montanes has lost 7 straight matches dating back to last October but a) he is due to win a match and b) those matches have been against pretty damn good players and I actually like the way he played in his loss to Cuevas last week. Ferrero on the other hand has always been a player you don't mind backing on harder and faster surfaces but I don't know about his status on clay courts at all and I say that because the last time we saw him he retired from the 2008 French Open in the first round with some leg injury and he has not played a match on the dirt since. This will be his very first and for an older player the longer layoff can be a disaster. As a matter of fact, Ferrero has played in only 8 clay court matches the last 12 months and managed to win only 4 of those matches. Montanes on the other hand has played in 47 clay court matches over the last 12 months and has managed to win 31 of those so believe me when I say he has a shot in this one against a rusty JCF. Montanes was never made to win matches on anything but clay surfaces so that explains his current losing streak. He did win his first round match here last season and that's enough for me to like him here. This is the first time Ferrero ever plays here but against I really don't like the fact that he has not played on clay courts since the French Open and now he has to play a guy who will bother him on his serves and make him pay for his mistakes if his first serve is not near perfect. Expect Montanes to make JCF run around and wish he never showed up for this tournament.
Oscar Hernandez 2.14 over Pablo Cuevas ($1000 to win $1140)
Get this fuckin Cuevas clown out of my face right now please. I don't care what he did last week or the week before or the week before that. All I know is that he is beatable when it comes to playing against better players or players with decent second serves on this stuff or that have a decent return game and the veteran Oscar Hernandez is a perfect match here to win this match. Okay there is a huge age difference between the two and yes they are heading in complete opposite directions but you have to know that Hernandez has a game well suited to beat the world's #149 player. I mean show the man some fuckin respect here guys. Hernandez is still ranked in the TOP 80 players of the world and if it wasn't for Cuevas and the way he played last week, we would not even be talking about such ridiculous odds for a match like this. These two players actually met here in last year's tournament where Hernandez only needed two sets to pull off the win. I know Cuevas is more experienced and has more brains this time around but Hernandez is still good for a fight and he should not be the underdog here. Cmon guys. Okay so the kid reached the Semi-Final of ATP Vina Del Mar last week where he lost to Gonzalez (the winner) but some of you seem to forget how he played in the Challenger event a few weeks before that losing in the second round losing to a guy ranked #200 in the world and what about the two other Challenger events in 2009 where he lost in the first round of both those tournaments? Hernandez on the other hand is a little bit pissed off about his first round loss last week against Vassallo-Arguello because he did look good and he did play well enough to win that match. Playing on clay is what Hernandez does and that is evident with his 57 matches played on clay courts the last 12 months, 32 of which he was able to win. So you have to pick your spots with this guy and find a way to bet on him when he has a chance. Cuevas also has tons of experience on this surface having played 45 clay court matches over the last 12 months but you have to know that he won only 23 of those matches and I just don't trust this kid as much as some of you out there do. He looked good last week but that was about it. Hernandez beat Cuevas here last year, he will do it again and for those who didn't know, Hernandez made the quarter-final here in 2008 and this is a place he seems to like to play and win matches. I am going with the underdog once again in this match.
Rui Machado 1.99 over Ivan Navarro-Pastor ($1500 to win $1485)
Yesssssssssss, believe me guys this is the side you want to be on and I could not love these odds more than this. What a great betting day it is going to be in the tennis world with so many matches being offered at pretty crazy odds right? Well you have to pick your spots and I am liking this spot here a lot because on one side we have Navarro-Pastor who is ranked #75 in the world right now but not playing great tennis at all and on the other side we have yet another lifetime journeyman in Machado who is not ranked in the TOP 100 but who certainly has the game to win this match and beat Navarro-Pastor. The two players have never met in the past and this could be an intense matchup that is not made for the faint of heart. Navarro-Pastor is getting a bit old now and unlike some of the other players here did not play on clay surfaces last week or in 2009 at all for that matter opting instead to play on some hard courts and look like a complete idiot like he did in his loss last week in ATP Johannesburg against Rik De Voest. I don't know what his deal is but he seems to think the harder and faster surfaces are made for him and now that he is back on clay courts he is not really going to know what hit him. Machado on the other hand had to qualify to be in the main draw of this tournament and he did so blowing away both his opponents and showing that he is ready to win some tennis matches in this tournament. The two qualifier matches were his first two tennis matches of 2009 but he did show in late 2008 that he is in good form going all the way to the Semi-Final of a Challenger event in Cancun. I will tell you right now that Machado is a lifetime Challenger event kind of guy but there is no doubt in my mind that he is good for a few wins at the ATP level when he gets to play against players like Navarro-Pastor and Machado is actually 22-12 over the last 12 months when playing on this surface. Navarro-Pastor on the other hand also has tons of experience playing on clay at both the ATP and Challenger levels and he has won 32 of his 48 matches played over the last 12 months but again his layoff on the dirt bothers me and he has not played on this stuff since the month of September when we saw him in ATP Bucharest. He is coming from a long flight overseas, he might be tired and he has to face a guy who has already played two matches on these courts and who has the return game and the second serve to take care of business in this match. Both players are playing here for the very first time, the odds are great and if Machado was ever going to win an ATP match it would be this one because Navarro-Pastor is just not ready if you ask me. Are you guys down for another underdog? If not I suggest you stop fuckin reading right now because I am nowhere near done with the dogs for today, believe me on that one guys. Machado to the bank for the one and only time this season.
Potatito Starace 2.03 over Thomaz Bellucci ($3000 to win $3090)
Are you fuckin kidding me or did I miss something here? How in the world did the oddsmakers come up with this crap of Starace being the underdog against a player who is not that hard to beat and who showed me absolutely nothing last week to indicate that he is ready to win a match of this caliber. I mean do they think we are stupid or what. Yes I am taking underdogs at a very alarming rate in this tournament and today in general but clay courts and especially early season clay tournaments really go a long way and tell the entire story of how things are going to go and upsets are nothing out of the ordinary, believe me on that. First of all this is the very first meeting between the two players and it should be know that they are both good on clay and they have both made me some money in the past on this surface. Bellucci however is coming off an effortless loss to Acasuso last week (I bet some big money on him in that match) and in that loss he did not look good at all. I saw the match and thought he was weak on his second serve and he had problems returning Acasuso's most of the time which is why he lost in straight sets. We all know the hard courts are not for him which is why it was a surprise for me that he spent so much time early 2009 playing on the hardcourts instead of playing in clay court Challenger events or what not. Starace on the other hand also won a match last week in ATP Vina Del Mar but he was bounced by Juan Monaco in the second round of that tournament and that is fine because despite the loss I liked the way he played, I like the way he was returning Monaco's very good serve (on that day anywyas) and I like the way he handle his own second serve. The more Starace plays on hard court surfaces the more we see why he should never leave the clay and now that he is back on the dirt, this is where we are going to see his most comfortable stuff and this is a perfect spot to bet on him. Here is the deal. Both guys really like the clay courts. Starace has played 52 clay court matches over the last 12 months and won 59.6% of those matches which is not that great but it's good and his level of competition was a lot better than Bellucci's during that period time. Bellucci on the other hand played in 52 clay court matches over the last 12 months and managed to win 41 of those matches which is fantastic but again his level of competition was not the greatest and I don't always trust him against better players as we saw last week when he went crashing out of that tournament with his loss to the better man Acasuso. I don't know about you guys but I sure as hell remember Bellucci's first round loss here in 2008 against Nicolas Lapentti in a match he was never supposed to come close to winning (which he didn't)and I do also remember Starace's first round loss here last here as well to Ivo Minar. That was a bit of a disaster and Starace did not know how to handle the big serve on this clay surface but now he gets to face a guy who is struggling with his second serve and that should make quite the difference coming into this match. I like Starace a lot here and will bet some big money on this guy to win.
Jose Acasuso 2.20 over Juan Monaco ($2000 to win $2400)
I cannot believe for the first time in my tennis betting career that all my wagers for one day in one tournament are on underdogs but again are you shocked or what? This afterall the South American clay court season where 80% of the players in these tournaments are a) betting on matches or telling their friends to bet against them and then losing and/or b) on Willy Canas special medication that for some reason is supposed to be for the flu but then again increases muscle mass by some high percentages over the years. Bunch of fuckin cheaters out here and there is telling who the next Alex Rodriguez is in the world of tennis. Alright so this is probably going to be the match of the day in Brasil and the match that all the fans really want to see because even though both guys are from Argentina, both guys are veterans and both guys are going to want to win this match pretty damn bad. Jose Acasuso is a perfect 3-0 lifetime versus Juan Monaco
and although some of those wins were a very long time ago and although both players have not played against each other in more than two years now, there is just a mental edge that Acasuso is going to carry into this match today that makes him the player to go with in my mind. So taking a look back at what these guys have done recently, Monaco was another victim to Fernando Gonzalez last week which is fine and doesn't really show how he can play but I didn't like his effort in that match and if he shows up playing the way he did in that match here tonight, he is going to lose and you can mark my words on that right now. Monaco is not having a good 2009 mainly because he has been stuck playing against good players on harder and faster surfaces that don't suit his game all that much anymore. Acasuso on the other hand came out of nowhere last week with his huge performance in ATP Vina Del Mar and although you would think he is probably tired and there is nothing he can do in this tournament because he has nothing left, I don't think that is the case. Clay courts don't get you all that tired cmon guys. I know it's tough to move but it's just not that bad and Acasuso showed that he is taking great drugs from the Canas pharmacy this time around. He, like Monaco, lost to Gonzalez in Vina Del Mar last week and you know what guys...he looked better returning Gonzo's serve and he was way better on his second serve than Monaco was against the very same player. I don't know what the hell he is on but this is the time to back Acasuso because something has changed with his game and prior to last week's Final appearance and loss to Gonzalez, he had reached the Semi-Final of his last clay court appearance in ATP Bucharest back in September where Gilles Simon beat him. So believe me he is playing well. Monaco has also been good on this surface but he does look the big matches and this is another big match. The only thing for me is that since his first round loss to Soderling last May at the French Open, this is now only his third clay court tournament since and I don't know how prepared he is going to be. Both players are going to duke it out and the tougher the tough gets going, the more I like Acasuso and the resilience he has shown in recent matches. Acasuso was embarassed here in the first round of last year's tournament but now that he gets to face a player he is familiar with and a player he knows he can beat, he is going to battle this out to the very end and show us one of his biggest wins of the last 12 months. This should be a great match to watch and I am backing Acasuso 100% with my funds. GO GET THIS BITCH DONE CHUCHO AND JUICE UP AS MUCH AS YOU CAN BEFORE THE MATCH STARTS!
ATP San Jose - Round 32
Roko Karanusic 2.16 over Denis Gremelmayr ($1000 to win $1160)
If you bet on the favourite in this match I will tell you right now that your brain has serious problems because I cannot possibly see how the underdog is not the only way to go here? This is not some bullshit Challenger event and this is not some small tournament in Europe. This is one of those American outdoor hard court tournaments and I have seen lines like this in the past just destroy gamblers who think they are getting a good deal but are in the end only getting screwed by some of the facts they cannot see. Believe it or not these two guys are no strangers to playing against each other in tournaments and this will actually be the 7th time they go up against one another and the one and only reason why the German is favoured over the Croatian in this match is because Gremelmayr is 5-1 lifetime against Karanusic and oddsmakers don't really know what else to do with this guy. He is by no means the better of the two players and I see it as a big mistake to take the H2H of two bad players and use it as your sole reason to wager on a certain player. Having said that...the only time Karanusic ever found a way to beat Gremelmayr was on the indoor hard court surface which is why this is the place to bet on him. I know it was only a Challenger event and it was a few years ago but again he has a big chance of winning this match here. When they did meet on outdoor hard courts the match did go to three sets and this is going to be another one of those that goes both ways for a while with someone taking over in he third set. I am taking Karanusic here because despite his first round loss to Mathieu last week in Zagreb I thought he looked really good in that match and he almost beat PHM taking him to three sets and pushing him for everything he had that day. Again that tells me he is strong recently and he should have his best game in this tournament because he did not look good earlier this year in ATP Chennai but his loss to Nadal in the Australian Open seemed to inspire him and against he almost pulled off a huge upset against PHM in Zagreb last week. We have not seen Gremelmayr for a few weeks now and the last place he was spotted was in a German Challenger event on the indoor hard court surface where he lost his first round match to that complete piece of shit Laurent Recouderc and that is not a good sign of things to come. I don't trust him at all in a match like this, not coming off that kinds of loss, not in the US and not against a player who does not want to lose to him again. This is not the surface for the German player as he has played only 8 matches on the indoor hard court surface the last 12 months and has won only 4 of those 8 matches so forget about this clown. Karanusic on the other hand has played in 10 indoor hard court matches the last 12 months and he has won 7 of those matches including winning the Kolding Challenger event on this surface back in October which is impressive and really goes to show that at this point in both players careers, he is the better of the two and that should be enough to win this match here tonight. Karanusic has never played in this tournament before and Gremelmayr does have the edge of having played here in 2008 where he made the second round and where he did beat Samuel Querrey in the opening round but that was the way he was playing in early 2008 and his form right now is nowhere near that so don't expect a repeat. Karanusic will get some points on his second serve and his return game was a lot sharper against PHM than it has been in a while and that is why I am betting on him right here, right now. END THIS BITCH WITH A WIN PLEASE!