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post #46 of 60 (permalink) Old 02-08-2009, 06:08 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Happy Fernando Sunday

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Originally Posted by kinster View Post
Mario Ancic over Marin Cilic @2.50

I see this as a 50/50, so going with the underdog.
Lose

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Originally Posted by kinster View Post
Looks like I Lost

Cilic to win second set @1.53, Ancic only won 1 winner in 1 set, pathetic.
Win

Didn't lose today any cash today, got a small profit. Well done Cilic Backers.
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post #47 of 60 (permalink) Old 02-08-2009, 06:20 PM
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Re: Happy Fernando Sunday

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Originally Posted by ryan23 View Post
Cilic over Ancic 4/9
WIN


Big Star/Alex Chilton R.I.P

The Stone Roses

Guns N' Roses
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post #48 of 60 (permalink) Old 02-08-2009, 06:24 PM
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Re: Happy Fernando Sunday

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Originally Posted by Henry Chinaski View Post
Very tricky card. Don't like the look of any match betting. I might give Monaco a try. His odds look pretty big. There would be some poetic justice if he could reignite his career with a big win at the same venue his career seemed to hit a brick wall at when he went over his ankle in the doubles final. He's never been the same since.

Bit slow posting this but the price hasn't changed much so it's no biggy.

Tsonga to win J-Burg

I took this at the start of the week just for an interest in the tournament when I saw his joke draw. If he's trying then he pretty much has a bye to the final and you'd have to favour him to beat Pics or Baggy if he gets that far.

2u 2.1

I was hoping to make some money on Cuevas this week but I'm not fading Capdeville again. He's playing with a lot of confidence, serving well and flattening out his forehand nicely. I don't see any real value in that one.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Henry Chinaski View Post
Cilic v Troicki over 21.5

For starters both are big servers and will be tough to break. Secondly, I've noticed that Marin very rarely wins easily indoors. He has played 12 matches on indoor hard since the start of 08 and and nine of them have had a set with at least 12 games. Of VT's 16 completed matches on the surface, 8 contained a 12+ game set. I'd expect Marin's mental toughness to give him the edge here when it matters but this one should be tight and a bit of value even though I missed the best price.

2.5u 1.73

(over 22.5 is widely available at 1.83 as well)
W
L

Record for the week:

5-5

Staked: 25.75
Returned: 26.84
Profit/Loss: +1.09
ROI: 4.2%

Not great but good to escape a tricky week with a profit.

Season: +12.89

Actually I might play something in the Vina finAL. A Gonzo win would make it a clean sweep for pre-tournament favourites
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post #49 of 60 (permalink) Old 02-08-2009, 06:27 PM
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Re: Happy Fernando Sunday

Dulko x Oudin @ 2.07

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dodig/cilic worst doubles in history of tennis me and ray charles would do better, fucking disgrace.
Wta Top Totty: Julia Goerges
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post #50 of 60 (permalink) Old 02-08-2009, 07:55 PM
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Re: Happy Fernando Sunday

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Originally Posted by ivan View Post
[B]Ancic+1.5 set over Cilic @ $1.75
Cilic over Ancic @ $1.43
Making bets that "overlap" generally isn't a good idea, especially if the odds are not that great (bookmaker's overround).

Suppose you put 10 units on each bet, then you would the following return:

Cilic 2-0 -10 +4.30 = -5.70
Cilic 2-1 +7.50 +4.30 = +11.80
Ancic 2-0 +7.50 -10 = -2.50
Ancic 2-1 +7.50 -10 = -2.50

I don't have the betfair set betting odds, otherwise you could calculate the "average return" based on the set score percentage chances implied in the odds. I suspect this would be fairly negative implying a poor value combination of bets.

At a higher level you could say your bets heavily depended on Cilic 2-1, but suppose Ancic was capable of winning set, then maybe he could win 2-1 too, but then you would have lost money.


TT Singles 2012: W: Winston-Salem SF: Honolulu CH, Rotterdam, Memphis, 's-Hertogenbosch, Wimbledon, Beijing, Vienna QF: Barcelona, Nice, Bastad, Petange CH, Bangkok R16: Monte Carlo, Madrid
TT Doubles 2012: W: Caloundra CH (with kingroger), Acapulco (with keqtqiadv) F: Beijing (with KittyTennis) SF: Sydney (with Belludal), Memphis (with Belludal), Guadalajara CH (with kingroger), Wimbledon (with RHB1993) QF: Barcelona (with extremaduratenis), Cincinnati (with stbanchile)
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post #51 of 60 (permalink) Old 02-08-2009, 08:36 PM
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Re: Happy Fernando Sunday

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Originally Posted by nastoff View Post
Suarez Navarro 1.80
Cilic, Gonzalez @ 1.85
Chardy +6 games @ 2
non runner
pending
win

I don't think I'll be able to stay up to watch the last match, it's a pity cause I miss Gonzalez everytime due to his late starts. I'm expecting him - either the easy or the hard way - to get the W; Acasuso has been surprising good this week ( aggressive, mentally strong(!), good forehand and backhand and a good serve ). However I think that Gonzolito is a different proposition at home and with the form he showed this week.
It has been a losing week in the prematch bets for me and a nervous in play week but it was my fault. I haven't been in good form this week, and was making schoolboy errors ( like riding an Ancic pick till the end against Hernych while I could have gone out easily. )
It's probably a biorhythms issue but today I'm already feeling I'm getting out of this funk and with an unbelievable amount of matches in the next couple of days ( I counted 65 matches spread over 5 tournaments ) there's plenty of choice and no room for error.
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post #52 of 60 (permalink) Old 02-09-2009, 12:38 AM
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Re: Happy Fernando Sunday

Acasuso +4.5 games @ 1.92
GL
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post #53 of 60 (permalink) Old 02-09-2009, 02:15 AM
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Re: Happy Fernando Sunday

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all 3 favs should win today
jup

paid over $2.00
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post #54 of 60 (permalink) Old 02-09-2009, 02:16 AM
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Re: Happy Fernando Sunday

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Originally Posted by Timotheus View Post
6/10 Parlay:
Ancic M. v Cilic M.: Cilic M. 1.45
Gonzalez F. v Acasuso J.: Gonzalez F. 1.25
Tsonga J.-W. v Chardy J.: Tsonga J.-W. 1.16

3 selections
Combined odds: 2.1

2/10 Parlay:
Gonzalez F. v Acasuso J.: Gonzalez F. 2-0 @ 1.6
Tsonga J.-W. v Chardy J.: Tsonga J.-W. 2-0 @ 1.4

2 selections
Combined odds: 2.24
Won
Won
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post #55 of 60 (permalink) Old 02-09-2009, 02:22 AM
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Re: Happy Fernando Sunday

good stuff Timo
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post #56 of 60 (permalink) Old 02-09-2009, 03:00 AM
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Re: Happy Fernando Sunday

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Originally Posted by ExcaliburII View Post
chucho has big chances.
Gotta love how you pop up every now and then to talk one of your countrymen up.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jaap View Post
The tennis equivalent of two old bald men fighting over a comb.
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post #57 of 60 (permalink) Old 02-09-2009, 07:08 AM
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Re: Happy Fernando Sunday

Quote:
Originally Posted by danielj View Post
Dulko x Oudin @ 2.07
WON

Quote:
Originally Posted by LSD View Post
dodig/cilic worst doubles in history of tennis me and ray charles would do better, fucking disgrace.
Wta Top Totty: Julia Goerges
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post #58 of 60 (permalink) Old 02-09-2009, 08:26 AM
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Re: Happy Fernando Sunday

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Originally Posted by SpinLES View Post
Gonzo -3,5 @ 1.9

gl
WIN
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post #59 of 60 (permalink) Old 02-09-2009, 12:27 PM
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Re: Happy Fernando Sunday

Quote:
Ancic+1.5 set over Cilic @ $1.75
Cilic over Ancic @ $1.43
Gonzalez 2-0 over Acasuso @ $1.80
Cornet over Penetta @ $1.80- Cornet should feel more at home in this match up, many baseline rallies, schiavoni didnt give her any rythem yesterday and i think thats the reason why she lost.
Hanthucova 2-0 over Flipkens @$1.43
Tsonga vs chardy under 20.5 games $1.85
Tsonga-4.5 over chardy $1.85
2W 1V 4L
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post #60 of 60 (permalink) Old 02-10-2009, 08:02 AM
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Re: Happy Fernando Sunday

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Originally Posted by carat3 View Post
Acasuso +4.5 games @ 1.92
GL
Lost
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