Changing of the guard Sunday - Page 4 - MensTennisForums.com
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post #46 of 106 (permalink) Old 01-31-2009, 07:25 PM
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Re: Changing of the guard Sunday

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Originally Posted by dinamohaifa View Post
you would be right if his matches against delpo and roddick were actually considered as "matches" . i consider it more as walkovers so it can be counted as days off..
What about Nadal's first 5 rounds?

In Wimbledon 2007, Nadal was playing his 3RD round match on the second wednesday while Fed was already into the quarters And what happened with that event? Nadal pushed Fed to 5 sets.

I don't buy this fatigue shit. He won his first 5 matches without breaking a sweat. Both men have had a single 5 set match and won in straight in all the other rounds.

Match is 50-50, says I.

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post #47 of 106 (permalink) Old 01-31-2009, 08:24 PM
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Re: Changing of the guard Sunday

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Originally Posted by Midnight Express View Post
Rafa over Fed-EX(nr.1) @2 (seems like I have clever bookie,yep its low)


I don't give shit if Fed won QF/SF without any troule against Del Ponny and A-Rod (owns ass of both, jeesh, he is foking Roddick ass since he can walk).
The other thing - VERDASCO is da man, this guy was killing everyone huge way( 3 rounds each 4 games lost in BEST OF 5!!!You can have one,may be 2 easy rounds with Stepanek being injured), nobody seems to remember he is the one that beat Murray, Nadal's SF match was from another world.
So, let's see what have we here, a former nr.1 that has like 10 players he is systematically loosing to..Murray, Simple Simon, Rafa..not counting those Nalbandian, Canas..that beat him back to back...jeesh, this is not the professor anymore. You are expecting what? Like he learnt a lesson from those lost matches?
I can't imagine Fedex beating Nadal on any surface (sand, snow, wallow being both oiled naked), it just doesn't matter, Roger is locked in the room crying right now how its unfair to play Rafa and not sb. else, with Mirka begging him to play tomorrow($$)..he can't beat him, may be he is better player, more talented, more everything but such a loosie against Rafa, I remember Hamburg...up 5:1!!Rafa injured, looking at Tony to retire the match but well, what Fedex did later on,keep injured player in match by loosing already won set...It's just not about the surface and please stop this Rafa can't play on hard court. Olympic winner? Really?
As it was written here, high expectation of coming to net, non-working BH...playing bigger bombs that Nando did? Don't think so. DEFINITELY HE HAS WEAPONS BUT..
Federer may be playing well but any real opponent? Anyone that troubled him in past? Again NO.
Rafa had only one rough round, resting whole two weeks, never seen this guy having headache with fitness...I won't be waiting for livebetting this time..this will be Wimby style..quick up 2 sets..
Surely you can place a bet with an online bookie instead of your local? $2 is ridiculous
post #48 of 106 (permalink) Old 01-31-2009, 08:33 PM
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Re: Changing of the guard Sunday

I have Federer Pending outright @ $3.75

GL
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post #49 of 106 (permalink) Old 01-31-2009, 08:39 PM
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Re: Changing of the guard Sunday

Got on Serena/Fed double @ 2.6

If this comes through would be my most successful GS ever
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post #50 of 106 (permalink) Old 01-31-2009, 08:40 PM
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Re: Changing of the guard Sunday

Last time Nadal beat Federer in hardcourt - 3 years ago

Last time Nadal beat Federer in hardcourt best of 5 set match - never.

And he played way too passive against Verdasco again, several metres behind baseline, hitting ball often so short, but Verdasco didnt want to come in .I think Fed will punish all these short balls without hesitation .
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post #51 of 106 (permalink) Old 01-31-2009, 08:49 PM
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Re: Changing of the guard Sunday

Like Ryan said, this one is too close to call and the oddsmakers seems to agree. This is likely going to be a nail biter and one where you are likely trading on the 5th set on the winner. But if a gun was pointed to my head, Federer will have another slam to his resume tomorrow - he's had a relatively easy tourney and looks very close to the Federer of old. This is his surface and I see him taking care of business tomorrow against Nadal. I know Nadal is a fighter, but how could you not be drained emotionally and physically after that match? It would be one thing if you were playing Nole, but Federer in my estimation finally may have a set strategy on how to handle Nadal soundly.

Either way - it should be a good one and I look forward to having a long day tomorrow in the livescore thread and then the SB later on in the evening.
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post #52 of 106 (permalink) Old 01-31-2009, 09:14 PM
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Re: Changing of the guard Sunday

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Originally Posted by bad gambler View Post
Surely you can place a bet with an online bookie instead of your local? $2 is ridiculous
Yup, I can but its just this match, I took it too early, instead of Rafa..FEdEx odds are going dow..

Fe.I had Tsonga over Blake @1.69 berofe the match and 1.5 Tsonga up a break in 1st, that was the day I felt in love with it...put some money to bwin to have it 2.44?
Lazy..
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post #53 of 106 (permalink) Old 01-31-2009, 09:32 PM
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Re: Changing of the guard Sunday

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Originally Posted by cardio View Post
Last time Nadal beat Federer in hardcourt - 3 years ago

Last time Nadal beat Federer in hardcourt best of 5 set match - never.

And he played way too passive against Verdasco again, several metres behind baseline, hitting ball often so short, but Verdasco didnt want to come in .I think Fed will punish all these short balls without hesitation .
Nice, I will finish what you started:

Nadal vs. Federer

H2H -
12:6

Best of 5 sets -
7:3

GS -
4:2

Last year -
4:0


How you like it now?
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post #54 of 106 (permalink) Old 01-31-2009, 09:43 PM
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Re: Changing of the guard Sunday

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Originally Posted by affinity View Post
Like Ryan said, this one is too close to call and the oddsmakers seems to agree. [...].
How do you figure that? Federer's backodds are 1.66 and Nada's 2.5 (on Betfair). I derive from that Federer's the clear favorite. You might say that;s just pople betting against ach other, but the same holds true or Unibet: Federer 1.60, Nadal 2.34.

This surprises me, I must say. My bet would be that Federer wins the first set and Nadal consequently wraps it up in four.
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post #55 of 106 (permalink) Old 01-31-2009, 09:57 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Changing of the guard Sunday

odds on federer start to drop a bit
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post #56 of 106 (permalink) Old 01-31-2009, 10:07 PM
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Re: Changing of the guard Sunday

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Originally Posted by Midnight Express View Post
Nice, I will finish what you started:

Nadal vs. Federer

H2H -
12:6

Best of 5 sets -
7:3

GS -
4:2

Last year -
4:0


How you like it now?
You do know that hardcourt, clay and grass are different surfaces , do you? And lets save bragging "I was SO right!" and weeping over lost money " Oh how could I be SO wrong!" after the match is finished. Kinda childish and stupid to start it before they even hit first serve in first game...
This not GM retarded fan wars, this only about how to win bets. Everybody has his own opinion and they risk with their own money, someone wins, someone loses and thats it.
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post #57 of 106 (permalink) Old 01-31-2009, 10:24 PM
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Re: Changing of the guard Sunday

Federer -1,5 set handicap @2,10 3 units
Federer @1,62 6 units

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post #58 of 106 (permalink) Old 01-31-2009, 10:59 PM
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Re: Changing of the guard Sunday

Nadal to win 2.5

It depends on Nadal's conditioning. Nadal is the best player in the world by far and has a big h2h record over fed. Odds too good to be missed IMO
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post #59 of 106 (permalink) Old 01-31-2009, 11:10 PM
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Re: Changing of the guard Sunday

Quote:
Originally Posted by Midnight Express View Post
Nice, I will finish what you started:

Nadal vs. Federer

H2H -
12:6

Best of 5 sets -
7:3

GS -
4:2

Last year -
4:0


How you like it now?
9 of those wins are on clay, so those stats are very misleading. federer didn't play anything close to the current form he has at the aussie open last year. not even close.
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post #60 of 106 (permalink) Old 01-31-2009, 11:55 PM
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Re: Changing of the guard Sunday

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Originally Posted by Federerfan22 View Post
How do you figure that? Federer's backodds are 1.66 and Nada's 2.5 (on Betfair). I derive from that Federer's the clear favorite. You might say that;s just pople betting against ach other, but the same holds true or Unibet: Federer 1.60, Nadal 2.34.

This surprises me, I must say. My bet would be that Federer wins the first set and Nadal consequently wraps it up in four.
I'll admit, I do not follow books like betfair/unibet because I have never used them unless I am following a wager at a lesser known tourney - the books I look to are generally 5Dimes/Pinnacle/Bookmaker and Federer is currently sitting at -141 (not sure of the conversion, sorry) and I'm sorry, but I don't see how that is a clear fave price. I got Federer around -155 and that still isn't a clear fave in my eyes.

Honestly, I am surprised that Fed was that cheap considering recent form/quality of opponents/surface. . . but if he was -200 and over, I'd be concerned because I don't think he is that big of a fave in this matchup.
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