Hateful Monday - MensTennisForums.com
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post #1 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 11:36 AM Thread Starter
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Hateful Monday

SIMON over Monfils @1.96, 4 units
GONZALEZ (+7,5 games) over Nadal, 2 units
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post #2 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 11:53 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Hateful Monday

GUCCIONE/BALL over Kubot/Marach @1.95, 2 units
Blake-Tsonga UNDER 40.0 games @2.10, 1 unit
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post #3 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 01:20 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Simon over Monfils @1.90

I like what I see from Simon
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post #4 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 02:09 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Simon 1.91
a)simply because I don't believe Monfils will know how to play him
b)because he's flat out a better player

Tsonga 1.55
Seen nothing from Blake to convince me he has a chance. Against any top player with big weapons he's always in trouble.

Gonzo 3-1 sets, 26.0
When Nadal loses on hard, it's almost never in 5 - if it's that close then Nadal wins. However can't see Gonzo straight setting him, and this looks reasonable value.
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post #5 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 02:09 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

MistaFlava's 2009 ATP Tennis Betting Record: 22-11 (+$15636.00)

***I only wager on odds 1.35 or better and never do parlays

(If you wager exactly the amounts I wager on every match this season, I promise you make some crazy money)

The winning just doesn't stop. So if you had followed me since day 1 and placed the same wagers with the same stakes you would be up around $15 000 right now and we are only one month into the season and a lot of my stakes have come at crazy odds. LIVIN LARGE IS GOOD! Learn it. Like I said before, if you follow me all season, you make big money, that's a promise guys. I am very busy with work, very busy with capping other sports and betting on tennis is something I do for fun on the side so don't hate the player bitches, hate the game. I'm sick and tired of all the idiots who run around on tennis forums claiming to be good because they go 10-0 betting on 1.15 favorites and parlaying 1.03 favorites by the dozen to make a couple hundred bucks.

All my wagering is done at Pinnacle. All the best this season and if you have a problem with me or my style, LICK MY NUTS!


Monday, January 26

Australian Open - Round of 16

Gilles Simon 1.88 over Gael Monfils ($1000 to win $888)

It bothers me that a lot of people are backing this french fuckhead because I was against him in the Round of 32, I thought he was beatable then but he proved me wrong and now I want to back him in what should be a walk in the park for him. If you question my motives for backing a guy I just faded you have to understand that this is tennis and this is all about one-on-one matchups and not about fading a guy for the entire tournament so it's only normal that I like a player I was forced to fade earlier. Believe it or not, with both players being french, this is actually the first time these two players meet each other ever and we don't really know what to expect in terms of style clashes. Monfils is probably the more natural player on the hardcourt surface and he is going to have his moments in this match but Simon is the better overall tennis players right now and he has been doing what is needed to win matches. Monfils comes into this match having never really been challenged at all. I mean his first round match was against Vassallo-Arguello and he won that in straight sets against the natural clay courter. His second round match was against the old man Stefan Koubek (yet another easy match for Monfils) and he took care of business there in an easy four set win. Then came the match two days ago when Monfils have the luck of playing against a guy who cannot win on hardcourts in Nicolas Almagro and that was another easy three set winners. So Gilles Simon is really the first decent hardcourt player Monfils is going to face in this tournament. Looking back on other hardcourt performances, Monfils did look good in Doha against players with major rust issues like Nadal but Roddick eventually beat him. In case you don't remember his US Open performance, Monfils had it easy until the Round of 16 came calling and Mardy Fish (very similar player to Simon in a few ways) beat him in three sets like Simon could very well do here. I have to say I have been impressed by Simon and so have many of you. This guy has actually come out of nowhere to reach top status in tennis and his win over Ancic last round was a validation enough for me that this guys is for real. I know he lost to Gasquet in Syndey but that was his first real match of the season and he was a bit off in that one. Who knows how far Simon would have gone at the US Open had he not been beat by one of the best players in the world right now Juan Marin Del Potro. I mean the guys was on a tear in the US hardcourt circuit and I don't even know why I ever questioned his talents on this surface. Simon has never been that great a player in best of five set matches but he is 7-3 in his last 10 matches of this kind and has really turned some kind of corner. Reaching the Quarter-Finals of a Slam event would be huge for him and he is going to be motivated to win the match and beat his compatriot. Monfils has also been very impressive in best of five set matches going 11-2 in his last 13 and losing only to Mardy Fish and Roger Federer at the French Open but Monfils will meet his match here and we are in for an epic battle of sorts, believe me on that. Under any other circumstance and probably in any other tournament but this one I would be on Monfils in this match because he is the better hardcourt player but there is something about this surface that has always been appealing to Gilles Simon who reached the Round of 32 here in 2006 in his first ever Australian Open main draw, he reached the Round of 32 here last year before being bounced by Nadal and now he has finally made it to a Round of 16 and his opponent is very beatable by all standars. Monfils on the other hand was pathetic in his 2005 Australian Open debut losing to Olivier Rochus in the Round of 64, he was even worse in 2006 losing to Luis Horna in the Round of 128, he lost to Gasquet here in 2007 in the Round of 32 and now he is in the Round of 16 for the first time ever in this tournament. So one of these guys is reaching their first Australian Open Quarter-Final and if all goes well, Simon has the edge here. We all know at least 2 sets are going to go to a tiebreak in this match and Simon has a big time edge as he is 5-2 in hardcourt tiebreaks the last 12 months while Monfils is 2-4 in hardcourt tiebreaks the last 12 months so you know where to side in live betting or when this match is on the line. I just don't think Monfils has faced enough adversity in this tournament to be ready for such a match while Simon had to beat a very tough Mario Ancic and his tennis is up to par right now. I HATE BETTING ON FRENCH PLAYERS BUT BOTH ARE FRENCH AND MONFILS IS THE BIGGER PIECE OF CRAP! Simon for me guys.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 1.57 over James Blake ($5000 to win $2850)

Get the fuck out of here James Blake. This guy cannot be trusted as heavy favourite despite the money he made me last round and he definitely cannot be trusted to beat a player that is much better than him right now. Not here, not anywhere but maybe in the US at the US Open. I think the fans probably believe this match is going to be a lot closer than we do because they see this as being a battle of two TOP 10 players and that usually means a very good match. Well I can tell you right now that James Blake is not going to be a TOP 10 player by the time 2009 is done while Tsonga could very well be a TOP 5 player by the time this season is all said and done. The one and only time these two players ever met was back in the TMS Paris event on the much faster indoor hardcourts and Blake really struggled to get anything going and he was destroyed 6-4 6-3 in that match. Like I said before, the only time and place I would ever consider backing Blake in a match like this would be back in the US at the US Open because he usually shines there and gives us his best tennis. I don't like Blake in this tournament and personally don't think he is that good of a tennis player. Could his road to get here get any easier or what? Blake got to face Lucky Loser in Frank Dancevic in the opening round of this tournament and he won that with ease. Then came the second round match against the #253 ranked player in the world and do I really need to say more other than his ranking? I bet a huge amount of money on Blake when he went up against Igor Andreev last round but Andreev almost lost to Peter Polansky in the opening round and Andreev sucks ass. So Blake has not faced one single bit of adversity yet coming into this match and having to play Tsonga will obviously be way more than James can handle. Tsonga had a much tougher road to get to this point and he handled it with extreme composure which is one of the main reasons I am backing him here. Tsonga had to face a tough Juan Monaco in the first round of this tournament but the Argentinian was no match and the win was easy for Tsonga. THEN CAME THE LJUBICI MATCH and boy did he have a tough time beating the bald fuck face. Three of the four sets went to tiebreaks but Tsonga showed why he is one of the best players in the world because he got rid of all the rust, beat a good player an cruised in to the Round of 32 where he was going to have to beat the #106 ranked player in the world who was on quite the tear in this tournament...yet another easy win although it did take four sets to get it done (Tsonga gave away the third set after going down a break and it was smart). Facing adversity like he did against Ljubicic is the thing that could of happened to him in this tournament because now he knows what he has to do to fight and survive tough situations. The wins in this tournament now make Tsonga 17-6 lifetime in best of five set matches which is really good for a young player. Sure he has a lot to learn and there is room for improvement but those six losses came against Djokovic, Nadal, Gasquet, Robredo, Roddick (twice) so there is no shame whatsoever in losing those matches (where he was the underdog for most of them) and all those players definitely had the edge in the match unlike James Blake in this spot right here. Blake has three losses in best five set matches over the last 12 months and those losses were to Fish (US Open), Schuettler (Wimbledon) and Gulbis (French Open) and I really need to know what the fuck he is still doing in the TOP 10 players of the world. Blake is not even close to being one the same level as the players who have beat Tsonga in best of five set matches the last 12 months and that's a fact. James Blake is only 1-3 lifetime in Round of 16 matches at the Australian Open and despite reaching the Quarter-Finals here in last year's tournament, Australia is not where you want to back Blake in big matches and like I said before, I have made some serious cash in the past betting against the American when plays in Europe or in places like this. Tsonga on the other hand reached the FINAL of this tournament last year and there is no reason to believe he can't do it again this year. I don't even know what kind of idiot you have to be to have money on James Blake in this match because Tsonga is going to use serious power to get rid of Blake and this match could be done in three quick sets believe it or not. HUGE HUGE WAGER ON TSONGA HERE!

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post #6 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 02:13 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Completly with you Flava, i would of thought Simon would be the fav so suprised to see them joint favs in most places

Tsonga over Blake 1/2

Simon over Monfils 5/6

Cibulkova over Dementieva 2/1

Williams over Azarenka 4/9

Kuznetsova over Zheng 4/7

Loads of plays for me because its a decent card to get involved with

GL all

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post #7 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 02:33 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Verdasco +2.5 sets over Murray @ $2.20
Tsonga over Blake @ $1.57
Simon over Monfils @ $2.00
Navvaro over garrigues $2.00
Simon vs Monfils over 0.5 Tie breaks @ $1.80
Verdasco vs Murray over 0.5 Tie Breaks @ $2.00
zheng over kuzzie $2.38
Cibulkova +1.5 set over Dementieva @ $1.80
S.Williams Vs Azarenka over 2.5 sets @ @ 2.38


Last edited by Iván; 01-25-2009 at 02:48 PM.
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post #8 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 02:45 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Suarez Navarro x Ali @2.90

After what i've seen against Venus i don't see how can Suarez Navarro lose this (that doesn't mean that she won't )


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Originally Posted by SVK View Post
it would be a miracle to win 2 days in a row:
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post #9 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 03:47 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Guess I'm against the bunch here

Monfils tb Simon 7/10 @ 2.06
Can't believe the odds here. I expected Monfils to be a clear fav here, not at short odds but I would give Gael a 60 to 40 advantage here. He hasn't been that convincing thusfar but he is a guy that needs to be focussed and stands out in the big matches. He has been freewheeling thusfar and is ready to step it up. Simon hasn't yet proven himself in this tournament if you ask me. He has shown that he can return a big serve but beating players as Guccione and Ancic isn't that much of a deal. Their serve is great but with Simon's returning and stable baseline play he can dictate every rally once the ball is in play. Monfils also has that big serve but combines it with great agility, spectacular play from time to time and good and stable baseline play. He is far more complete than Simon here. Big value on this one.

Medina Garrigues tb Suarez Navarro 6/10 @ 2.02
Again a wrong fav is set here. Suarez Navarro did great to beat Venus who was very error prone. She has a great "Henin-like" backhand and stable baseline play but still her game suits the slower courts a lot better. Medina has been really convincing, not dropping a single set thusfar and especially her win over Pennetta was impressive. Suarez lost to Pavlyuchenkova and Keothavong recently which says a lot. She has beaten two players she had to beat and caused an upset over Venus. With Medina being far more experienced and having proven herself a lot more on the long run I can see her taking the win here.
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post #10 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 04:25 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

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post #11 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 06:02 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

W-L 52-33

Tsonga @1,60

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post #12 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 06:04 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Nadal -2.5 sets -160
Navarro/Garrigues over 21.5 games
Cibulkova/Dementieva over 21.5 games
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post #13 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 06:13 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

On Tsonga with all the rest


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Hence, God exists.
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post #14 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 06:23 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

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post #15 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 06:30 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

andy murray - fernando verdasco | fernando verdasco + 2,5 (set handicap) @ 2.25 | stan james | 3/10
andy murray - fernando verdasco | fernando verdasco + 7,5 (match handicap) @ 1.85 | boylesports | 5/10
gael monfils - gilles simon | gilles simon (match betting) @ 1.91 | ladbrokes | 4/10
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