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post #31 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 09:16 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Nadal to win 3-1 @4.0

Nadal x
Murray x
Federer x
Djokovic x
Dementieva x
Serena = @3.6

Last edited by cardio; 01-25-2009 at 10:14 PM.
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post #32 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 09:38 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Expected odds of 1.6-1.8 for Monfils.

Monfils over Simon @ 2.06 (60 units)
Serena -3.5 over Azarenka @ 2.08 (40 units)
Suarez-Navarro -1.5 over Medina Garrigues @ 2.06 (10 units)

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post #33 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 09:46 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday


Where are your odds from?

Monfils + Tsonga + Nando-Murray over 35.5
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post #34 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 10:08 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

£250 on Tsonga to beat Blake (1.56 on betfair)

£500 on Serena Williams to take the title (3/1 on sportingbet). Good bet considering its only 3.7 on betfair
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post #35 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 10:15 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Originally Posted by bad gambler View Post
Shaky? Are you basing that purely on the Stosur match the other night because other than that she is the most in form player on the WTA right now
Being the most in form player on the WTA Tour right now isn't saying much. She has hit more UE's than Winners so far this tournament. I've watched every match of hers and she is extremely vulnerable right now especially on her serve. Cibulkova on the other hand has been playing decent tennis and is getting a high % of her first serves in.

Frankly every match on the women's side of the draw is a complete toss up. Not a single one of them is playing good, and the WTA is in serious trouble in terms of talent. Kind of embarassing if you ask me. Bunch of fragile minded, mental midgets.

As for tonight's bets

Tsonga -185 (6 units)
Zheng +130 (1 unit)
Suarez Navarro -115 (2 units)

Monfils -110 + Cibulkova +220 (2 units)

Monfils 3-2 Sets +550 (1 unit)
Azarenka 2-1 Sets +445 (1 unit)
Nadal 3-0 Sets -175 (1 unit)
Murray 3-0 Sets -175 (1 unit)
Tsonga 3-1 Sets +300 (1 unit)

I think the upset trend on the women's side of things continues once again today.
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post #36 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 10:54 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Surprised to see nobody on Blake.
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post #37 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 11:01 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Hateful Monday

too many on Monfils. gsm Gael, already written.
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post #38 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 11:13 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Murray 3-0 over Verdasco
Murray -6.5 over Verdasco

The last time Murray lost a match to lefty other than Nadal was in the summer of 2005 against Alessio di Mauro in a clay court challenger in Barletta. Never on the main tour. He loves this match up. He also enjoys playing ball-bashers because he can frsutrate them with his defence and take them out of their rhythm with his dog-ugly variety.
Verdasco had chances to take a set when they last met here but choked them away and I'm pretty sure that Murray is inside his head especially given the 5-0 main tour h2h.

2.0 2u
2.02 2u

Monfils v Simon over 41.13762

I can't see either player dominating the other here. They're both excellent movers and this could be a long gruelling affair. Monfils has the edge in terms of power while Simon is well ahead in terms of court craft and mental strength. This could be 5 sets in the making. I would rather have played the 38.5 on betfair but liquidity is bad and the price is shit. I won't be surprised if this ends up being 39-41 games.

2.0 2u

Gonzalez to win a set

This can only be such a big price because of the tiredness factor. There's no doubt that Gonzo will be feeling the effects of his epic 5 setter against Gasquet but I'm hoping it will force him to come out swinging early on. Nadal started slowly v Haas and if he does the same here he could get punished.

2u 2.6
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post #39 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 11:28 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Im a bit late,

1 unit Suarez Navarro
1 unit Simon
3 units Tsonga

gl everyone
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post #40 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 11:51 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Simon over Monfils live @ 2.10

Simon can rally forever with Monfils eventually forcing the error. I also disagree about Suarez Navarro being the "wrong odds". Medina Garriguez is a dirtballer after all.
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post #41 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-26-2009, 12:03 AM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Nadal, Dementieva, Murray @ 1.73

Cant see how either of them will lose, Cibulkova will be a tough cookie but Dementieva is tougher.

Azarenka @ 3.00 is worth a bit of a shot against the diabolical Serena Williams.
and so does Zheng @ 2.48
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post #42 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-26-2009, 01:48 AM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Originally Posted by Mistaflava View Post
MistaFlava's 2009 ATP Tennis Betting Record: 22-11 (+$15636.00)

***I only wager on odds 1.35 or better and never do parlays

(If you wager exactly the amounts I wager on every match this season, I promise you make some crazy money)

The winning just doesn't stop. So if you had followed me since day 1 and placed the same wagers with the same stakes you would be up around $15 000 right now and we are only one month into the season and a lot of my stakes have come at crazy odds. LIVIN LARGE IS GOOD! Learn it. Like I said before, if you follow me all season, you make big money, that's a promise guys. I am very busy with work, very busy with capping other sports and betting on tennis is something I do for fun on the side so don't hate the player bitches, hate the game. I'm sick and tired of all the idiots who run around on tennis forums claiming to be good because they go 10-0 betting on 1.15 favorites and parlaying 1.03 favorites by the dozen to make a couple hundred bucks.

All my wagering is done at Pinnacle. All the best this season and if you have a problem with me or my style, LICK MY NUTS!


Monday, January 26

Australian Open - Round of 16

Gilles Simon 1.88 over Gael Monfils ($1000 to win $888)

It bothers me that a lot of people are backing this french fuckhead because I was against him in the Round of 32, I thought he was beatable then but he proved me wrong and now I want to back him in what should be a walk in the park for him. If you question my motives for backing a guy I just faded you have to understand that this is tennis and this is all about one-on-one matchups and not about fading a guy for the entire tournament so it's only normal that I like a player I was forced to fade earlier. Believe it or not, with both players being french, this is actually the first time these two players meet each other ever and we don't really know what to expect in terms of style clashes. Monfils is probably the more natural player on the hardcourt surface and he is going to have his moments in this match but Simon is the better overall tennis players right now and he has been doing what is needed to win matches. Monfils comes into this match having never really been challenged at all. I mean his first round match was against Vassallo-Arguello and he won that in straight sets against the natural clay courter. His second round match was against the old man Stefan Koubek (yet another easy match for Monfils) and he took care of business there in an easy four set win. Then came the match two days ago when Monfils have the luck of playing against a guy who cannot win on hardcourts in Nicolas Almagro and that was another easy three set winners. So Gilles Simon is really the first decent hardcourt player Monfils is going to face in this tournament. Looking back on other hardcourt performances, Monfils did look good in Doha against players with major rust issues like Nadal but Roddick eventually beat him. In case you don't remember his US Open performance, Monfils had it easy until the Round of 16 came calling and Mardy Fish (very similar player to Simon in a few ways) beat him in three sets like Simon could very well do here. I have to say I have been impressed by Simon and so have many of you. This guy has actually come out of nowhere to reach top status in tennis and his win over Ancic last round was a validation enough for me that this guys is for real. I know he lost to Gasquet in Syndey but that was his first real match of the season and he was a bit off in that one. Who knows how far Simon would have gone at the US Open had he not been beat by one of the best players in the world right now Juan Marin Del Potro. I mean the guys was on a tear in the US hardcourt circuit and I don't even know why I ever questioned his talents on this surface. Simon has never been that great a player in best of five set matches but he is 7-3 in his last 10 matches of this kind and has really turned some kind of corner. Reaching the Quarter-Finals of a Slam event would be huge for him and he is going to be motivated to win the match and beat his compatriot. Monfils has also been very impressive in best of five set matches going 11-2 in his last 13 and losing only to Mardy Fish and Roger Federer at the French Open but Monfils will meet his match here and we are in for an epic battle of sorts, believe me on that. Under any other circumstance and probably in any other tournament but this one I would be on Monfils in this match because he is the better hardcourt player but there is something about this surface that has always been appealing to Gilles Simon who reached the Round of 32 here in 2006 in his first ever Australian Open main draw, he reached the Round of 32 here last year before being bounced by Nadal and now he has finally made it to a Round of 16 and his opponent is very beatable by all standars. Monfils on the other hand was pathetic in his 2005 Australian Open debut losing to Olivier Rochus in the Round of 64, he was even worse in 2006 losing to Luis Horna in the Round of 128, he lost to Gasquet here in 2007 in the Round of 32 and now he is in the Round of 16 for the first time ever in this tournament. So one of these guys is reaching their first Australian Open Quarter-Final and if all goes well, Simon has the edge here. We all know at least 2 sets are going to go to a tiebreak in this match and Simon has a big time edge as he is 5-2 in hardcourt tiebreaks the last 12 months while Monfils is 2-4 in hardcourt tiebreaks the last 12 months so you know where to side in live betting or when this match is on the line. I just don't think Monfils has faced enough adversity in this tournament to be ready for such a match while Simon had to beat a very tough Mario Ancic and his tennis is up to par right now. I HATE BETTING ON FRENCH PLAYERS BUT BOTH ARE FRENCH AND MONFILS IS THE BIGGER PIECE OF CRAP! Simon for me guys.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 1.57 over James Blake ($5000 to win $2850)

Get the fuck out of here James Blake. This guy cannot be trusted as heavy favourite despite the money he made me last round and he definitely cannot be trusted to beat a player that is much better than him right now. Not here, not anywhere but maybe in the US at the US Open. I think the fans probably believe this match is going to be a lot closer than we do because they see this as being a battle of two TOP 10 players and that usually means a very good match. Well I can tell you right now that James Blake is not going to be a TOP 10 player by the time 2009 is done while Tsonga could very well be a TOP 5 player by the time this season is all said and done. The one and only time these two players ever met was back in the TMS Paris event on the much faster indoor hardcourts and Blake really struggled to get anything going and he was destroyed 6-4 6-3 in that match. Like I said before, the only time and place I would ever consider backing Blake in a match like this would be back in the US at the US Open because he usually shines there and gives us his best tennis. I don't like Blake in this tournament and personally don't think he is that good of a tennis player. Could his road to get here get any easier or what? Blake got to face Lucky Loser in Frank Dancevic in the opening round of this tournament and he won that with ease. Then came the second round match against the #253 ranked player in the world and do I really need to say more other than his ranking? I bet a huge amount of money on Blake when he went up against Igor Andreev last round but Andreev almost lost to Peter Polansky in the opening round and Andreev sucks ass. So Blake has not faced one single bit of adversity yet coming into this match and having to play Tsonga will obviously be way more than James can handle. Tsonga had a much tougher road to get to this point and he handled it with extreme composure which is one of the main reasons I am backing him here. Tsonga had to face a tough Juan Monaco in the first round of this tournament but the Argentinian was no match and the win was easy for Tsonga. THEN CAME THE LJUBICI MATCH and boy did he have a tough time beating the bald fuck face. Three of the four sets went to tiebreaks but Tsonga showed why he is one of the best players in the world because he got rid of all the rust, beat a good player an cruised in to the Round of 32 where he was going to have to beat the #106 ranked player in the world who was on quite the tear in this tournament...yet another easy win although it did take four sets to get it done (Tsonga gave away the third set after going down a break and it was smart). Facing adversity like he did against Ljubicic is the thing that could of happened to him in this tournament because now he knows what he has to do to fight and survive tough situations. The wins in this tournament now make Tsonga 17-6 lifetime in best of five set matches which is really good for a young player. Sure he has a lot to learn and there is room for improvement but those six losses came against Djokovic, Nadal, Gasquet, Robredo, Roddick (twice) so there is no shame whatsoever in losing those matches (where he was the underdog for most of them) and all those players definitely had the edge in the match unlike James Blake in this spot right here. Blake has three losses in best five set matches over the last 12 months and those losses were to Fish (US Open), Schuettler (Wimbledon) and Gulbis (French Open) and I really need to know what the fuck he is still doing in the TOP 10 players of the world. Blake is not even close to being one the same level as the players who have beat Tsonga in best of five set matches the last 12 months and that's a fact. James Blake is only 1-3 lifetime in Round of 16 matches at the Australian Open and despite reaching the Quarter-Finals here in last year's tournament, Australia is not where you want to back Blake in big matches and like I said before, I have made some serious cash in the past betting against the American when plays in Europe or in places like this. Tsonga on the other hand reached the FINAL of this tournament last year and there is no reason to believe he can't do it again this year. I don't even know what kind of idiot you have to be to have money on James Blake in this match because Tsonga is going to use serious power to get rid of Blake and this match could be done in three quick sets believe it or not. HUGE HUGE WAGER ON TSONGA HERE!


Get the fuck out of here Gael Monfils...what a win by Simon, match went 2+ sets so the bet is good at Pinnacle and I hope at your books as well or you got screwed.

Now onto Tsonga when I wake up.

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post #43 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-26-2009, 01:52 AM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Originally Posted by Mistaflava View Post
Get the fuck out of here Gael Monfils...what a win by Simon, match went 2+ sets so the bet is good at Pinnacle and I hope at your books as well or you got screwed.

Nope, got screwed :-(
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post #44 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-26-2009, 02:52 AM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Originally Posted by philosophicalarf View Post
Nope, got screwed :-(

Thats garbage man, switch to Pinnacle immediately.
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post #45 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-26-2009, 03:18 AM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Simon was a push

Tsonga/Mad vera parlay
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