Hateful Monday - Page 2 - MensTennisForums.com
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post #16 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 06:31 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Originally Posted by Mistaflava View Post
MistaFlava's 2009 ATP Tennis Betting Record: 22-11 (+$15636.00)

***I only wager on odds 1.35 or better and never do parlays

(If you wager exactly the amounts I wager on every match this season, I promise you make some crazy money)

The winning just doesn't stop. So if you had followed me since day 1 and placed the same wagers with the same stakes you would be up around $15 000 right now and we are only one month into the season and a lot of my stakes have come at crazy odds. LIVIN LARGE IS GOOD! Learn it. Like I said before, if you follow me all season, you make big money, that's a promise guys. I am very busy with work, very busy with capping other sports and betting on tennis is something I do for fun on the side so don't hate the player bitches, hate the game. I'm sick and tired of all the idiots who run around on tennis forums claiming to be good because they go 10-0 betting on 1.15 favorites and parlaying 1.03 favorites by the dozen to make a couple hundred bucks.

All my wagering is done at Pinnacle. All the best this season and if you have a problem with me or my style, LICK MY NUTS!


Monday, January 26

Australian Open - Round of 16

Gilles Simon 1.88 over Gael Monfils ($1000 to win $888)

It bothers me that a lot of people are backing this french fuckhead because I was against him in the Round of 32, I thought he was beatable then but he proved me wrong and now I want to back him in what should be a walk in the park for him. If you question my motives for backing a guy I just faded you have to understand that this is tennis and this is all about one-on-one matchups and not about fading a guy for the entire tournament so it's only normal that I like a player I was forced to fade earlier. Believe it or not, with both players being french, this is actually the first time these two players meet each other ever and we don't really know what to expect in terms of style clashes. Monfils is probably the more natural player on the hardcourt surface and he is going to have his moments in this match but Simon is the better overall tennis players right now and he has been doing what is needed to win matches. Monfils comes into this match having never really been challenged at all. I mean his first round match was against Vassallo-Arguello and he won that in straight sets against the natural clay courter. His second round match was against the old man Stefan Koubek (yet another easy match for Monfils) and he took care of business there in an easy four set win. Then came the match two days ago when Monfils have the luck of playing against a guy who cannot win on hardcourts in Nicolas Almagro and that was another easy three set winners. So Gilles Simon is really the first decent hardcourt player Monfils is going to face in this tournament. Looking back on other hardcourt performances, Monfils did look good in Doha against players with major rust issues like Nadal but Roddick eventually beat him. In case you don't remember his US Open performance, Monfils had it easy until the Round of 16 came calling and Mardy Fish (very similar player to Simon in a few ways) beat him in three sets like Simon could very well do here. I have to say I have been impressed by Simon and so have many of you. This guy has actually come out of nowhere to reach top status in tennis and his win over Ancic last round was a validation enough for me that this guys is for real. I know he lost to Gasquet in Syndey but that was his first real match of the season and he was a bit off in that one. Who knows how far Simon would have gone at the US Open had he not been beat by one of the best players in the world right now Juan Marin Del Potro. I mean the guys was on a tear in the US hardcourt circuit and I don't even know why I ever questioned his talents on this surface. Simon has never been that great a player in best of five set matches but he is 7-3 in his last 10 matches of this kind and has really turned some kind of corner. Reaching the Quarter-Finals of a Slam event would be huge for him and he is going to be motivated to win the match and beat his compatriot. Monfils has also been very impressive in best of five set matches going 11-2 in his last 13 and losing only to Mardy Fish and Roger Federer at the French Open but Monfils will meet his match here and we are in for an epic battle of sorts, believe me on that. Under any other circumstance and probably in any other tournament but this one I would be on Monfils in this match because he is the better hardcourt player but there is something about this surface that has always been appealing to Gilles Simon who reached the Round of 32 here in 2006 in his first ever Australian Open main draw, he reached the Round of 32 here last year before being bounced by Nadal and now he has finally made it to a Round of 16 and his opponent is very beatable by all standars. Monfils on the other hand was pathetic in his 2005 Australian Open debut losing to Olivier Rochus in the Round of 64, he was even worse in 2006 losing to Luis Horna in the Round of 128, he lost to Gasquet here in 2007 in the Round of 32 and now he is in the Round of 16 for the first time ever in this tournament. So one of these guys is reaching their first Australian Open Quarter-Final and if all goes well, Simon has the edge here. We all know at least 2 sets are going to go to a tiebreak in this match and Simon has a big time edge as he is 5-2 in hardcourt tiebreaks the last 12 months while Monfils is 2-4 in hardcourt tiebreaks the last 12 months so you know where to side in live betting or when this match is on the line. I just don't think Monfils has faced enough adversity in this tournament to be ready for such a match while Simon had to beat a very tough Mario Ancic and his tennis is up to par right now. I HATE BETTING ON FRENCH PLAYERS BUT BOTH ARE FRENCH AND MONFILS IS THE BIGGER PIECE OF CRAP! Simon for me guys.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 1.57 over James Blake ($5000 to win $2850)

Get the fuck out of here James Blake. This guy cannot be trusted as heavy favourite despite the money he made me last round and he definitely cannot be trusted to beat a player that is much better than him right now. Not here, not anywhere but maybe in the US at the US Open. I think the fans probably believe this match is going to be a lot closer than we do because they see this as being a battle of two TOP 10 players and that usually means a very good match. Well I can tell you right now that James Blake is not going to be a TOP 10 player by the time 2009 is done while Tsonga could very well be a TOP 5 player by the time this season is all said and done. The one and only time these two players ever met was back in the TMS Paris event on the much faster indoor hardcourts and Blake really struggled to get anything going and he was destroyed 6-4 6-3 in that match. Like I said before, the only time and place I would ever consider backing Blake in a match like this would be back in the US at the US Open because he usually shines there and gives us his best tennis. I don't like Blake in this tournament and personally don't think he is that good of a tennis player. Could his road to get here get any easier or what? Blake got to face Lucky Loser in Frank Dancevic in the opening round of this tournament and he won that with ease. Then came the second round match against the #253 ranked player in the world and do I really need to say more other than his ranking? I bet a huge amount of money on Blake when he went up against Igor Andreev last round but Andreev almost lost to Peter Polansky in the opening round and Andreev sucks ass. So Blake has not faced one single bit of adversity yet coming into this match and having to play Tsonga will obviously be way more than James can handle. Tsonga had a much tougher road to get to this point and he handled it with extreme composure which is one of the main reasons I am backing him here. Tsonga had to face a tough Juan Monaco in the first round of this tournament but the Argentinian was no match and the win was easy for Tsonga. THEN CAME THE LJUBICI MATCH and boy did he have a tough time beating the bald fuck face. Three of the four sets went to tiebreaks but Tsonga showed why he is one of the best players in the world because he got rid of all the rust, beat a good player an cruised in to the Round of 32 where he was going to have to beat the #106 ranked player in the world who was on quite the tear in this tournament...yet another easy win although it did take four sets to get it done (Tsonga gave away the third set after going down a break and it was smart). Facing adversity like he did against Ljubicic is the thing that could of happened to him in this tournament because now he knows what he has to do to fight and survive tough situations. The wins in this tournament now make Tsonga 17-6 lifetime in best of five set matches which is really good for a young player. Sure he has a lot to learn and there is room for improvement but those six losses came against Djokovic, Nadal, Gasquet, Robredo, Roddick (twice) so there is no shame whatsoever in losing those matches (where he was the underdog for most of them) and all those players definitely had the edge in the match unlike James Blake in this spot right here. Blake has three losses in best five set matches over the last 12 months and those losses were to Fish (US Open), Schuettler (Wimbledon) and Gulbis (French Open) and I really need to know what the fuck he is still doing in the TOP 10 players of the world. Blake is not even close to being one the same level as the players who have beat Tsonga in best of five set matches the last 12 months and that's a fact. James Blake is only 1-3 lifetime in Round of 16 matches at the Australian Open and despite reaching the Quarter-Finals here in last year's tournament, Australia is not where you want to back Blake in big matches and like I said before, I have made some serious cash in the past betting against the American when plays in Europe or in places like this. Tsonga on the other hand reached the FINAL of this tournament last year and there is no reason to believe he can't do it again this year. I don't even know what kind of idiot you have to be to have money on James Blake in this match because Tsonga is going to use serious power to get rid of Blake and this match could be done in three quick sets believe it or not. HUGE HUGE WAGER ON TSONGA HERE!

thanks Flava. time to cash. BOL
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post #17 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 06:58 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Tsonga @ 1.65

Verdasco +7,5 @ 1.85

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post #18 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 07:17 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Tsonga @ 1.53
Kuznetsova @ 1.65
Monfils @ 1.95


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post #19 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 07:20 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Originally Posted by Timotheus View Post
Guess I'm against the bunch here

Monfils tb Simon 7/10 @ 2.06
Can't believe the odds here. I expected Monfils to be a clear fav here, not at short odds but I would give Gael a 60 to 40 advantage here. He hasn't been that convincing thusfar but he is a guy that needs to be focussed and stands out in the big matches. He has been freewheeling thusfar and is ready to step it up. Simon hasn't yet proven himself in this tournament if you ask me. He has shown that he can return a big serve but beating players as Guccione and Ancic isn't that much of a deal. Their serve is great but with Simon's returning and stable baseline play he can dictate every rally once the ball is in play. Monfils also has that big serve but combines it with great agility, spectacular play from time to time and good and stable baseline play. He is far more complete than Simon here. Big value on this one.

Medina Garrigues tb Suarez Navarro 6/10 @ 2.02
Again a wrong fav is set here. Suarez Navarro did great to beat Venus who was very error prone. She has a great "Henin-like" backhand and stable baseline play but still her game suits the slower courts a lot better. Medina has been really convincing, not dropping a single set thusfar and especially her win over Pennetta was impressive. Suarez lost to Pavlyuchenkova and Keothavong recently which says a lot. She has beaten two players she had to beat and caused an upset over Venus. With Medina being far more experienced and having proven herself a lot more on the long run I can see her taking the win here.
These are my thoughts as well.Gl Tim
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post #20 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 07:24 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

on Tsonga too @ 1.59
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post #21 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 07:37 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Originally Posted by Thrasher View Post
These are my thoughts as well.Gl Tim
Cheers, good luck to you as well

Adding a double of Tsonga ML and Nando +7 @ 2.83 4/10 (Gamebookers)
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post #22 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 08:03 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Hateful Monday

CIBULKOVA over Dementieva @3.60, 1 unit
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post #23 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 08:28 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Originally Posted by Ontario Gambler View Post
CIBULKOVA over Dementieva @3.60, 1 unit
I jumped on this as well. Dementieva's form has been shaky at best.
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post #24 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 08:28 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Simon to beat Monfils - $1.95

gl freaks
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post #25 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 08:30 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Originally Posted by LleytonMonfils View Post
I jumped on this as well. Dementieva's form has been shaky at best.
Shaky? Are you basing that purely on the Stosur match the other night because other than that she is the most in form player on the WTA right now
post #26 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 08:33 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Monfils to beat Simon 1.85
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post #27 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 08:42 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Originally Posted by bad attitude View Post
andy murray - fernando verdasco | fernando verdasco + 2,5 (set handicap) @ 2.25 | stan james | 3/10
andy murray - fernando verdasco | fernando verdasco + 7,5 (match handicap) @ 1.85 | boylesports | 5/10
gael monfils - gilles simon | gilles simon (match betting) @ 1.91 | ladbrokes | 4/10
Welcome to the forum, bad attitude.
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post #28 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 08:42 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Originally Posted by bad gambler View Post
Shaky? Are you basing that purely on the Stosur match the other night because other than that she is the most in form player on the WTA right now
What do you think about Monfils - Simon ?
I'm on Simon.
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post #29 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 08:49 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Hey dudes:

Monfils @2.03 over Simon

-Simon beat some big servers already but Monfils is a big server and hes more athletic and has better footwork than Simons previous opponents. Agree with Tim that he should be a fav here.

Cibulkova +4 @1.88 over Dementieva

-Cibulkova playing well and Dementieva is fading a bit in her fitness after playing so much tennis early on in the season. Definitely upset possibility here.

Kuznetsova @1.67 over Zheng

-Kuzzy looked a little uninterested in her last match and made alot of unforced errors.She still managed to win in straight sets. Zheng is no slouch but if Kuzzy plays to her ability today she should dispose of Zheng. She also will be looking forward to a chance to knock Serena out in the next round. h2h is 3-0 Kuzzy without dropping a set.

Medina Garrigues @1.99
over Saurez Navarro

-See Tims write up. Garrigues with more experience and better hardcourt player here.
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post #30 of 72 (permalink) Old 01-25-2009, 09:02 PM
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Re: Hateful Monday

Tsonga over Blake

These 2 met in Paris last year and Jo scored a routine victory without even facing a bp. He has a more complete game than the American and can mix things up if things aren't going his way. He should get a lot of joy approaching the net to the backhand and he can use his short slices to take Blake out of his comfort zone. Tsonga's draw looks very soft on paper but Ljubicic was superb and the standard of that match was possibly the highest of the tournament so far.

5u 1.56

Tempted by 3-0 Murray and 5 sets in the all-French match. Maybe Gonzo to win a set at 2.5 as well. I'll think some more...
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