Originally Posted by philosophicalarf
His game went wildly off in the 2nd half of the year, and he couldn't beat anyone at all most of the time (he was playing atrociously, couldn't do anything right). That rather ruined his hard court record, but on form he's pretty good (semis US Open 07, finals masters cup 07, quarters AO 08). Only recently the first signs of recovery, but he's still not playing well. Cilic should beat him, if he can keeps the errors under control. However if he can't, and has to reign back on the groundshots, Ferrer will grind him into the dust.
You make a good point. I mean its the uncertainty that creates the odds. I got on Cilic fairly early, but anything below 1.50 is awful value on this game. Tomorrow on the Stepanek-Verdasco match is an example of the same. Radek seems good value at the moment, but by tomorrow evening maybe not (3-0 H2H Radek, similar h/c stats - odds 2.00)