MistaFlava's 2009 ATP Tennis Betting Record: 15-9 (+$7014.00)
***I only wager on odds 1.35 or better and never do parlays
(If you wager exactly the amounts I wager on every match this season, I promise you make some crazy money)
I ended up losing $1800 yesterday and now I'm a little pissed off at how things have gone the last few days. I know betting on Grand Slams is a total crapshoot because some of these guys just can't handle it but I did make some very stupid wagers, the first being a wager against a Slam guy like Baghdatis and the second being a wager against Robredo. Today is a new day, it's the end of the second round and I'm looking to cash in big from here to the end of the tournament. Like I said before, if you follow me all season, you make big money, that's a promise guys. I am very busy with work, very busy with capping other sports and betting on tennis is something I do for fun on the side so don't hate the player bitches, hate the game. I'm sick and tired of all the idiots who run around on tennis forums claiming to be good because they go 10-0 betting on 1.15 favorites and parlaying 1.03 favorites by the dozen to make a couple hundred bucks.
All my wagering is done at Pinnacle. All the best this season and if you have a problem with me or my style, LICK MY NUTS!
Thursday, January 22
Australian Open - Round of 64
Dudi Sela 1.82 over Victor Hanescu ($1500 to win $1230)
Gotta love these odds here guys and I think Sela is going to destroy Hanescu in this matchup. These guys met each other twice in 2008 and both times Sela was a huge problem for Hanescu who could not keep up with the young Israeli. The players first met in May at the US Open in the first round and Hanescu came out on top but it five sets and the Romanian was down two sets at some point that match. That was on clay and this is on hardcourts, very different story. The two players met once again in October in Moscow on the indoor hardcourts, a much more favorable spot for Sela who ended up winning a three set battle but who took the first and third sets with a lot of ease. It has become quite evident that Sela's style does not suit Hanescu at all and with the extreme heat beaming down on the courts in this one, I see the same result as the Moscow tournament. Sela is another one of those players who had to qualify for the main draw of this tournament and he has dropped only 2 sets out of the 8 he has played so far and is coming off an opening round win over Schuettler. Did you all know that back in September, Sela was a finalist in ATP Beijing where he lost to Andy Roddick after beating Devilder, Ferrer, Robredo and Schuettler. That is some very impressive stuff. Hanescu on the other hand looked awful in his opening round match against Hernych, despite coming from two sets down and needed three tiebreak wins to reach the next round. That's just awful and Sela is not going to keep him around that long if he plays the same way this time. Hanescu looked terrible last week as well in Auckland as he was bounced in the first round by an out of shape Juan Monaco and I just don't get why everyone is backing him here. Hanescu is 2-5 lifetime at the Australian Open having won only twice in the first round
. How can you bet on that? Sela has a 10-3 lifetime record at the Australian Open (including qualifying matches) and for those of you who have already forgotten about this, Sela pushed Karlovic to his limits last year and he pushed Marat Safin even harder in 2007 losing that match in five sets. I like the way he has played here in the past. It's also important to know that Dudi Sela is 31-17 over the last 12 months on hardcourts while Victor Hanescu is only 7-8 on hardcourts over the last 12 months
. Sela not only has the experience to win this tournament and reach his first third round ever but he also has the confidence of knowing he can beat Hanescu (something he has done in the past) and I think Sela is going to win this match with ease. Hanescu is the better server but Sela has a good return game and Hanescu's serve has yet to bother him in either one of their meetings. Sela doesn't have the best serve in the world but Hanescu is a horrendous returner and Sela should have his way set in and set out in this match. TAKE SELA TO THE BANK FOR ONE MORE ROUND!!!
Mario Ancic 1.67 over Ivo Karlovic ($5000 to win $3350)
Is this some kind of joke or what? Which idiot decided to give us Ancic at this price in this match? Unless I am missing something this is going to be a pretty big wager for and I fully expect to come out of this thing with a win here. History has it that Ivo is going to win this match because Mario has never been able to understand Karlovic's serve and that has always been a problem for Ancic who has perhaps been too nice to Ivo in past matchups. Well no more mister nice guy. Karlovic leads the head-to-head 3-1 but I think it's worth mentioning that Ancic was ranked #155 and #300 in two of his losses to Karlovic and those were a long time ago
. They have not seen each other since the 2006 season and they have never played against each other in a Grand Slam event which should really change the perspective of things in a matchup like this. Karlovic comes into this match off a straight set win in the opening round over Gimeno-Travers but he looked horrendous in Chennai two weeks before this tournament losing to the #202 ranked player in the world in the quarter-final. There could not be a more out of form player than Karlovic as his last two matches of 2008 were first round losses in Lyon and Paris and his 2009 campaign has not gone much better. Ancic on the other hand struggled a little bit in his first round match against Wayne Odesnik (needing four sets to win) but Ancic looked smooth and he looked calm so I don't mind going huge on him here. He did beat both Malisse and Robredo last week in Sydney before losing to Djokovic in what looked to be a conservative performance and for those of you concerned with his ability to return big serves, Ancic had a great battle with Amer Delic in Brisbane and came out on top showing that he is in shape to fight and return serves. Anyone who bets against Ancic in this match has no brain as Ancic is a perfect 5-0 lifetime in second round matches at the Australian Open
and he has played well too well here in the past to go against him. Karlovic on the other hand has a 7-7 lifetime record at the Australian Open and only once has he made it past the second round and that was in 2008 when all he had to do was beat Dudi Sela and Jamie Baker. Ancic is a lot better than either one of those guys and Karlovic is going to have all sorts of problems in this match. You would think a guy like Karlovic would love the outdoor hardcourts but he has played only 18 matches on this stuff in the last 12 months and has won 11 of those matches. Ancic was sick last year and didn't get much action in on the hardcourts (14 matches total in the last 12 months) but lifetime he has won 33 of his last 50 hardcourt matches and one thing is for sure, if he gets back to form in this tournament he has a very good chance of making it far. This is all about Ancic gettting that one or two breaks per set (one will do) because we all know Karlovic cannot return nor can he be broken. Even if this goes to tiebreaks Karlovic does not have great success on outdoor hardcourts and Ancic has too much skill to lose this match. ANCIC STRAIGHT TO THE BANK WITH THIS!!!
Ernest Gulbis 1.59 over Igor Andreev ($2500 to win $1475)
I was actually considering making this one of my largest wagers of the season but I like Ancic the most today and decided to hold back a little bit on this wager. This is the first time these two ever play against each other and a lot are surprised to have this kind of offer odds wise on Andreev. I have seen a few sheep drink the purple kool aid on Andreev and I think it's a huge mistake. Sure he is ranked #19 in the world right now and sure he has some big wins under his belt the last 12 months but we are talking about the hardcourts and Andreev will never be a good player on this stuff. My fellow Canadian Peter Polansky had a great run against Andreev in the opening round as he took the first two sets in his first ever Grand Slam match but then choked away the next two sets and let Andreev off for another day. Andreev played in Sydney the week before where he went crashing out in the second round against a qualifier Chardy and he also lost his first round match against Youzhny in ATP Doha a few weeks before that. He was in pretty good form last US Open where he made it to the Round of 16 but I don't what happened since and I don't think his style matches that of Gulbis who destroyed Albert Montanes in the first round of this tournament (straight sets win). Prior to that he was a second round victim in ATP Auckland to eventual winner Del Potro and he did manage to take the Champ to three sets which was impressive. Keep in mind that Gulbis beat Djokovic in ATP Brisbane the week before that before losing to PHM the next time around. Gulbis was impressive at the US Open as well despite only reaching the second round and I say impressive because he really pushed Andy Roddick to his full limits, a lot more than he expected to this early in the tourney, and Roddick needed four long sets to get the job done. The youngster has virtually no experience in this tournament because his only previous match was last year when he lost to Marat Safin in straight sets but who can blame him there? He has come a long way since that loss and is ready to move on. Andreev on the other hand is 6-5 lifetime at the Australian Open and he has reached the third round in the past but has been one of the most inconsistent players I can remember in a while. In 2006 he reached the third round and lost to Hrbaty. In 2007 he lost in the opening round to Vince Spadea!?!?! Last year he beat Pavel and Vliegen before losing to Gaquet in the third round. Safe enough to say he has his hands full against a good hardcourt player like Gulbis. I think the youngster has had some back luck on hardcourts which is why he is only 11-9 the last 12 months. Those nine losses however were against Juan Del Potro (as the #9 player in the world), Paul-Henri Mathieu (as the #31 player in the world), Andy Roddick (as the #8 player in the world), Nikolay Davydenko (as the #9 player in the world), Novak Djokovic (as the #3 player in the world), Jose Acasuso (as the #55 player in the world), Nikolay Davydenko (as the #4) player in the world), David Nalbandian (as the #7 player in the world) and the list goes on. You have to know that of Gulbis' last 8 losses on the hardcourt surface, 6 of them were against TOP 10 players
and Gulbis has always been faced with tough opponents. Andreev looked completely out of sorts against Polansky and he is an easy fade in this round. We are talking about the same Andreev who almost lost to a Canadian playing his first ever Grand Slam match and the same Andreev who lost to Jeremy Chardy in the ATP Sydney event last week. Something is not right with him and I love the price for Gulbis here.