Simone Bolelli Monday :D - Page 2 -
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post #16 of 82 (permalink) Old 01-18-2009, 01:04 PM
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Re: Simone Bolelli Monday :D

seems like it...
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post #17 of 82 (permalink) Old 01-18-2009, 01:25 PM
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Re: Simone Bolelli Monday :D

Dent over Delic @1,83 is my play of the day.

Also considering:
Lu over Bellucci @1,73
Malisse over Llodra @1,83

Has Kei Nishikori fully recovered from injury?
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post #18 of 82 (permalink) Old 01-18-2009, 01:40 PM
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Re: Simone Bolelli Monday :D

MistaFlava's 2009 ATP Tennis Betting Record: 9-4 (+$7474.00)

***I only wager on odds 1.35 or better and never do parlays

(If you wager exactly the amounts I wager on every match this season, I promise you make some crazy money)

What can I say guys? I had a great opening few weeks where I limited my wagers, kept my big time investors happy with the money they made and I come into the Australian Open up almost 8k which puts me on pace for some serious cash this season. Like I said before, you tail me all season, you make big money, that's a promise guys. I am very busy with work, very busy with capping other sports and betting on tennis is something I do for fun on the side so don't hate the player bitches, hate the game. I'm sick and tired of all the idiots who run around on tennis forums claiming to be good because they go 10-0 betting on 1.15 favorites and parlaying 1.03 favorites by the dozen to make a couple hundred bucks.

All my wagering is done at Pinnacle. All the best this season and if you have a problem with me or my style, LICK MY NUTS!


Monday, January 19

Australian Open - Round of 128

Xavier Malisse 1.76 over Michael Llodra ($1500 to win $1140)

So I am going to pick and choose in the first round because I just can't trust some of these odds and just can't trust some of these ass clown players. This won't be easy passing up on some of the matchups I have seen so far but I would rather be selective and make money than have to settle for wagers on clowns like Mayer (who looks good but is not in shape). We are here with the X-Man who has both made me serious money in the past and cost me serious money in the past. Malisse beat my fellow Canadian (and our best player for now) Frank Dancevic in the final round of qualifying last week and that has shown me that Malisse means business at the Australian Open. A lot of you are going to refer to their head to head where Llodra is up 2-0 but what you have to understand is that they have not played against each other since the 2005 season and things have changed quite a bit since that time. You wonder how a guy like Llodra who is ranked #56 in the world right now would be an underdog against Malisse who is ranked #201 in the world right now after being out of tennis and competitive ATP events for some time now. Neither player has been on tour enough the last 12 months to be called 'in form' to win any tournaments so the better of the two in my mind is Malisse. He has spent the last season playing in Davis Cup action as well as Challenger events trying to get his 28 year old body back in shape for this level of tennis and I think he has come far enough to win here. Malisse lost both his 2007 and 2008 Australian Open first round matches but those were against Tursunov and Clement and as much as Llodra can be good on any given day, he is not the same as those two and Malisse really wants this. Llodra on the other hand has always struggled at the Australian Open and that is one of the biggest reasons I am taking Malisse here. MICHAEL LLODRA IS 1-6 LIFETIME IN AUSTRALIAN OPEN FIRST ROUND MATCHES HAVING LOST SIX STRAIGHT. For those of you who don't understand that, it means he has lost six straight first round matches at this tournament and has not won since beating Gaston Gaudio at the 2000 Australian Open in the first round. Why in the world would you bet on a guy like that who has played in only 15 hardcourt matches in the last 12 months and managed to win only 5 of those matches? That's just crazy. X-Man on the other hand has played in 31 hardcourt matches the last 12 months (most of them challengers but still, this is his surface) and he has won 20 of those matches. I am going with the player who wants this more and who has the more tools to win on this surface despite his poor ranking. The return of Malisse starts here.

Simone Bolelli 1.65 over Kristof Vliegen ($1000 to win $650)

No this is not Super Bowl Sunday and I still don't know why the hell people call him that despite the match with his name but nonetheless my selection here is the young italian and I don't think he is going to disappoint at all. First of all these are great odds, he is trustworthy most of the time and I have gone against Vliegen in the past and make some pretty big money. Their one and only lifetime meeting was about a year ago in a Challenger event that immediately followed both their early exits from this very Australian Open tournament and despite the loss on indoor hardcourts, Bolelli is still the better player today. Those of you who don't know much about him, he is currently ranked #38 in the world while Vliegen has been out of shape and is ranked only #85 in the world after reaching as high as #30 back in the 2006 season. I don't know what happened to this guy but something tells me that tennis does not mean the world to him and that is one of the reasons he has dropped off so much in the past. I like the fact that Bolelli has already played four competitive matches on hardcourts this season as he beat Gilles Simon in the Hopman Cup and recorded a win over Starace in the first round of the ATP Sydney tournament last week before getting blown out by Tsonga. Vliegen on the other hand played in Doha only where he had problems beating a pathetic Oscar Hernandez before putting up a good fight against Kohlschreiber and making that his last match before the Australian Open which is a bit odd that he would not play last week to get in better shape. LET ME TELL YOU RIGHT NOW THAT KRISTOF VLIEGEN DOES NOT LIKE OUTDOOR HARDCOURTS HAVING PLAYED ONLY 5 MATCHES ON THIS STUFF THE LAST 12 MONTHS. He is only 2-3 in those matches and again he cannot be trusted on a surface that does not suit him at all. Super Bol as you guys call him has not been that much better but he did play in 13 hardcourt matches in the last 12 months and he did beat Kohlschreiber in TMS Miami last March which is definitely worth something in my eyes. Having said that, I am not worried at all about Bolelli because he won his first round match in five sets in the 2008 tournament which means he has the experience and knows how tough you have to be to win a five setter here. Super Bol is 1-0 lifetime in Australian Open first round matches. Vliegen however is 2-1 lifetime in Australian Open first round matches but that was when he was in match form back in the day and I still don't trust him here. This is a match between two players who are going nowhere in this tournament and who don't play much on outdoor hardcourts. I give the edge to Bolelli and will back him for sure at these odds.

Yen-Hsun Lu 1.66 over Thomaz Belluci ($3500 to win $2310)

Thank you oddsmakers for this very nice gift. How the hell do they figure Belluci has a chance in hell of winning this match in the end? I don't really understand and I am hoping it's not some kind of trap to take our money but I don't think they would set a trap on such a low profile matchup being played on Court 18. Having said that, these two players come from completely different worlds, they have never faced each other and both are young enough to one day probably play in a lot of ATP Tournaments on this Tour. Lu has already achieved his career high in terms of rankings as he is now the #61 player in the world while Belluci has moved all the way up to #89 which is about 20 spots lower than what he was at last summer. This is not about me calling Lu the much better player here but this is more about fading Belluci on the hardcourts. The reason I say fade him is because he tried to qualify for both the Brisbane tournament and the Auckland tournament the last two weeks but failed to make the main draw in both going crashing out in the qualies of both tournaments. That's horrendous. I think some of you guys get a bit excited about this guy because of his clay court performances and maybe his opening round win over Oscar Hernandez at the US Open last season which means nothing because Hernandez blows serious ass. Lu on the other hand playing in the Hopman Cup against some very good opponents and despite losing all three matches, he was good enough the next week in Auckland to beat Darcis and then go out against Almagro as expected. Hardcourts are this kids surface. LU HAS PLAYED IN 69 HARDCOURT MATCHES THE LAST 12 MONTHS WHILE BELLUCI HAS PLAYED IN ONLY 13. Having said that, did I mention that Lu has won 50 of those 69 matches and like I said before, this is definitely the place to back this guy. Belluci has won only 4 of his 13 hardcourt matches the last 12 months, he cannot move or handle serves the way he can on clay and that is going to be a huge problem here for the youngster. So Belluci comes into this match having not done crap on hardcourt and he has never set foot on Australian Open courts (no qualies, no main draws). Lu on the other hand has been here before losing in qualifiers in both 2004 and 2005 before making the main draw in 2005 and losing his first match. He did however win his first round match against Greul in 2007 and he has enough experience having played a total of 10 Australian Open matches in the past (both qualifying and main draw). Lu is the pick here and the oddsmakers are giving us a late present. You're an idiot if you don't take this.

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post #19 of 82 (permalink) Old 01-18-2009, 01:45 PM
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Re: Simone Bolelli Monday :D

exactly the 3 plays i'm considering myself, mista
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post #20 of 82 (permalink) Old 01-18-2009, 02:08 PM
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Re: Simone Bolelli Monday :D

Delic over Dent 5/6

Bolelli over Vliegen 4/7

Ferrero to beat Santoro 3-0 7/4

Probably do some more plays later on WTA stuff

Big Star/Alex Chilton R.I.P

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post #21 of 82 (permalink) Old 01-18-2009, 02:11 PM
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Re: Simone Bolelli Monday :D

What worries me about Bolelli is his AO record is shocking took 5 sets to beat a nobody

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post #22 of 82 (permalink) Old 01-18-2009, 02:14 PM
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Re: Simone Bolelli Monday :D

Yen-Hsun Lu 1.66 over Thomaz Belluci ($3500 to win $2310)
It takes alot for someone to change my mind on a particular match up but flava has done it, good luck to us all.
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post #23 of 82 (permalink) Old 01-18-2009, 02:44 PM
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Re: Simone Bolelli Monday :D

I'm pretty surprised at all the Bolelli supporters, Vliegen has the kind of game to beat him and is a volatile player who's game is effective on this surface, be wary.

The first few rounds of slams, especially this one are always big for me so let's hope the trend continues. I'll post some writeups because I've got nothing else to do right now.

Ginepri over Berdych @ 3.25 (20 units)

Berdych is coming off a 6-3 6-4 loss to Guccione. Enough said.

Dent over Delic @ 1.90 (15 units)

Taylor's looked like he's been in decent form, playing Gasquet tough in a loss to him at Brisbane and peformed well in a recent exho, beating a big serving Scud 6-2 6-3. I know his conditioning isn't the best, but I don't expect there to be a lot of rallies in this match up against another serve and volleyer in Delic. Amer is coming off a 0-6 7-6 0-6 loss to Mayer so it's safe to say he's not in great form.

Nieminen over Mathieu @ 1.86 (15 units)
The steady Finn should be too consistent for the streaky Mathieu who has known to collapse on the big stage.

Isner over Hrbaty @ 2.40 (10 units)
Gut feeling, I can't see the Dominator being able to handle Isner's massive serve.

Starace 3-0 over Tomic @ 2.20 (10 units)
Tomic has little experience at the ATP level, let alone a stage this grand. From what I've seen, he is easily frustrated and doesn't yet have the weapons or serve to consistently threaten a top 100 player. Starace should be too consistent for Tomic to even get a set. At 1.30 straight up, this is a great match to put in parlays.

Seppi over Federer @ 30.00 (5 units)

It's no secret that I hate when books place players at odds over 10+ and I'm always going to go against it as long as the player isn't absolutely awful, especially in this case. Seppi does not warrant these odds at any mean.

Zverev over Del Potro @ 18.00 (3 units)

Del Potro is a heck of a player, but not good enough to merit these kinds of odds against a decent player in Zverev. I'm still not sold on Del Potro's conditioning and he's coming off 5 matches in Auckland with the final being just two days ago. Zverev has the net game to trouble Del Potro and at these odds it's worth a shot.

Gabashvilli over Granollers @ 2.30 (5 units)
I'm still not convinced with Granollers on hard despite his decent showing at Chennai. Gabashvilli is streaky and is a shotmaker, he can be pretty good on this surface.

Muller over Lopez @ 2.76 (8 units)

Odesnik over Ancic @ 5.50 (3 units)

Moya x Starace x Petzchner x Malisse @ 5.60 (5 units)

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post #24 of 82 (permalink) Old 01-18-2009, 02:48 PM
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Re: Simone Bolelli Monday :D

Originally Posted by ivan View Post
you reckon?

Sprem is a tough nut of a player, being croatian has some roots in australia and has performed well in melbourne in the past.

Should be a 3 setter, sperm value.
i can assure you pironkova will have much more support at the match than sperm, who has struggled to find the egg in the past
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post #25 of 82 (permalink) Old 01-18-2009, 02:52 PM
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Re: Simone Bolelli Monday :D

pironkova will take it.. im sure... but i know all the croatians will be at that match Im gonna be there too having a bet on pironkova
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post #26 of 82 (permalink) Old 01-18-2009, 03:06 PM
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Re: Simone Bolelli Monday :D

Lu over Bellucci

This is more about fading the Brazilian than anything. I watched him against Isner and he doesn't seem to have much game for hardcourts. His heavy top spin will give Lu plenty of time to run balls down. His 2nd serve is very weak although he does generate some kick which could cause more trouble for Lu given he's about a foot smaller than Isner.

4u at 1.73

Mugtiple time:

Serra v Karanusic
Chardy v Daniel
Almagro v Massu

Ok none of my selections are anything special but it's more about fading the opponents. Roko was absoluted annihilated by Beck last week. Serra hasn't lost in R1 of a slam since US Open 2006.
Massu won a total of 4 hardcourt main draw matches last year and seems to be in decline.
Daniel is a dirtballer whose only ever hardcourt main draw wins, as far as I can see, have come in South American challengers. Chardy has shown some form already this year.

2.1 4u

Big mugtiple:
Gasquet v Junquiera
Monfils v MVA
Tsonga v Monaco
Gulbis v Montanes
Troicki v Martin
Cilic v Anderson
Tipsarevic v Hernandez
Roddick v Rehnquist
Del Potro v Zverev

2.1 5u

Both mugtiples at match-complete books
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post #27 of 82 (permalink) Old 01-18-2009, 03:24 PM
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Re: Simone Bolelli Monday :D

hail to the 1st Slam of the season. vamos Ontie.

BERDYCH over Ginepri @1.42, 8 units
MALISSE over Llodra @1.80, 4 units
NIEMINEN over Mathieu @1.83, 5 units
BENNETEAU over Baghdatis @2.40, 3 units
MULLER over Lopez @2.76, 2 units
GARCIA-LOPEZ over Calleri @2.21, 3 units
Robredo-Reynolds OVER 35,5 games @1.86, 3 units
MINAR over Wawrinka @5.27, 1 unit
SANTORO (+2,5) sets handicap over Ferrero @1.58, 4 units
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post #28 of 82 (permalink) Old 01-18-2009, 03:39 PM
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Re: Simone Bolelli Monday :D

HRBATY over Isner @1.72, 4 units
KOHLSCHREIBER over Querrey @1.73, 4 units
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post #29 of 82 (permalink) Old 01-18-2009, 03:39 PM
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Re: Simone Bolelli Monday :D

Nieminen over PHM

Didn't realise this was Monday. Anyway, I ignored PHM's shocking record against lefties and backed him against Verdasco last week and paid the price as he only managed 3 games. That's a real shocking effort and shows where his form is. Jarkko has looked very good this season playing a more explosive brand of counter-punching than he's displayed in the past. He likes it in Australia and defends big points from last year.

1.8 4u
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post #30 of 82 (permalink) Old 01-18-2009, 03:42 PM
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Re: Simone Bolelli Monday :D

Hrbaty - Isner: Hrbaty @ 1.70
Lu - Bellucci: Lu @ 1.73
Llodra - Malisse: Llodra @ 2.28 (fuck the public plays)
Kunitsyn - Ljubicic: Kunitsyn @ 2.85

Lu clearly the biggest bet, Hrbaty a good second. llodra and Kunitsyn just small.

Also two parlays:
@ 2.74:
Söderling R @ 1.11
Troicki @ 1.15
Tipsarevic @ 1.13
Muller G. v Lopez F. [Total Games] Over 40.5 Games @ 1.9

Petzschner 1.28
Errani 1.57
Mayer 1.33
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