I'm always trying to get an edge of the bookies in one way or another, and the concept of "fading the public" has always intrigued me. Personally I feel it is imperative to cap the game instead of capping the money trail but everyone has their own methods. So over the next month I am going to undertake an exercise of randomly selecting various matches across various sports such as tennis, rugby league, rugby union, AFL, american sports and see what the results are. Obviously this is not really going to prove anything but it will be interesting to see what the results are.
Ok so how this is going to work...
I will randomly nominate matches (well in advance of their start time) and post their lines as well here and basically if their is a line movement favouring one player/team by the time the event starts I will place "1 unit" on the player/team where the movement has been unfavourable, so effectively betting against the money trail. I realise all line movements are not as a result of where the money trail is, prime example being injury to key players, weather etc, but will use my judgement to determine whether this is the case. If their has been no significant line movement, it will be considered as a "no play."
The bookmaker I will be using to monitor the line movements is Centrebet, so for american sports it won;t really give me a true indicator of the money flow, but I don't want to overcomplicate this exercise by using multiple bookies.
Lets see how the contrarian picks fare.
Last edited by bad gambler; 05-05-2006 at 10:55 PM.
You cannot accurately say the weight of money is on something when it firms. Quite often its not. The only way to get accurate #'s is to have access to certain sites or know bookmakers. It also varies greatly from sport to sport as does the public's success.
For example take two of my best sports NBL (Aussie Hoops) and NHL. For the NBL public numbers has not too much significance where as in the NHL its huge for me.